Chance events in career development: Influence, control and multiplicity

This article reports three studies on the nature and impact of chance events. The first study investigated chance events in terms of the dimensions of influence and control. The second and third studies investigated the effects of multiplicity of chance events on career development are in terms of respondents’ own careers and then in terms of career scenarios. Results indicated that chance events can be characterized by the interactive influence of influence and control. High influence and low control chance events had the biggest impact on career development. When there is a connection between multiple chance events, the impact is greater than when unrelated chance events occur. The finding was confirmed regardless of whether individuals rated their own experiences or those presented in scenarios. However, it was also found that negative outcome chance events had the greatest impact regardless of whether such events were single or multiple influences on individuals’ careers. The results provide further support for the integration of chance events into the Chaos Theory of Careers.     

On the genesis of inflated (and deflated) judgments of responsibility

Prior research has found that people tend to overestimate their relative contribution to joint tasks [e.g., Ross, M., & Sicoly, F. (1979). Egocentric biases in availability and attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,37, 322–336]. The present research investigates one source of this bias, and in doing so, identifies an important moderator of the effect. Three studies demonstrate that when people estimate their relative contribution to collective endeavors they focus on their own contribution and give less consideration to the contribution of their collaborators. This can cause overestimation for tasks in which total contributions are plentiful, but underestimation for tasks in which total contributions are few—despite the fact that both tasks reflect positively on the person who performs them. These results extend Ross and Sicoly’s (1979) original analysis of bias in responsibility judgments, but also suggest that the tendency to overestimate one’s relative contribution to collaborations is not as ubiquitous as once thought.     

Similar Processes Despite Divergent Behavior in Two Commonly Used Measures of Risky Decision Making

Performance on complex decision-making tasks may depend on a multitude of processes. Two such tasks, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART), are of particular interest because they are associated with real world risky behavior, including illegal drug use. We used cognitive models to disentangle underlying processes in both tasks. Whereas behavioral measures from the IGT and BART were uncorrelated, cognitive models revealed two reliable cross-task associations. Results suggest that the tasks similarly measure loss aversion and decision-consistency processes, but not necessarily the same learning process. Additionally, substance-using individuals (and especially stimulant users) performed worse on the IGT than healthy controls did, and this pattern could be explained by reduced decision consistency.     

风险偏好与框架效应对大学生职业决策的影响

在应用Hsee等设计的风险偏好水平问卷对46名大学生进行分组的基础上,通过设计职业决策情境,探究了当代大学生职业决策与其风险偏好、职业方案以及方案的框架性倾向之间的关系。研究结果表明：（1）高风险偏好大学生的职业选择倾向明显高于低风险偏好的大学生,尤其对冒险职业方案的选择中,上述趋势最为明显;（2）框架效应存在于大学生职业决策情境中,他们更倾向于选择采用积极口吻表述的职业方案;（3）大学生对冒险、折中、保守三种方案的职业选择倾向有显著地逐渐增大的趋势。     

Prime Minister Leadership Styles in Foreign Policy Decision-Making: A Framework for Research

Although the institutional contexts of prime ministers in parliamentary democracies and of U.S. presidents are very different, both types of executive leaders influence the decision-making processes through their leadership styles. Leadership style includes how the leaders relate to those around them, how they like to receive information, and how they make up their minds. While there are numerous empirical studies and theoretical frameworks on the leadership styles of U.S. presidents, few studies of prime ministers are concerned with personality and styles of leadership. This paper reviews the literature on U.S. presidential styles and on organizational leadership in order to construct a framework for the study of prime minister leadership styles. Components of the proposed framework are illustrated with examples of British prime ministers and German chancellors. In addition, categories of dependent variables to be explained by leadership style are discussed. I argue that leadership style has the greatest impact on the decision-making process and that although the direct effect of leadership style on foreign policy behavior is less, leadership style indirectly influences foreign policy through the decision-making process.     

Presidential Character Revisited

This study attempts to bring a fresh perspective to the study of presidential personality. Critics of the personality approach doubt that personality really has much impact on presidential leadership, and they question whether the approach will contribute to the development of a presidential leadership theory. Critics also see problems with the conceptualization of personality variables in particular studies, such as James David Barber's much-praised, much-maligned The Presidential Character . The study proposes the use of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) to analyze the relationship between presidential personality and presidential leadership. Administered to about 1.7 million people annually by psychologists, career counselors, and business managers, the MBTI makes possible the classification of each president as one of 16 personality types, and it offers predictions about many characteristics of leadership style for each type. The study concludes with an extensive MBTI analysis of President Clinton's leadership style.     

Toward a Model Informed Consent Process for BRCA1 Testing: A Qualitative Assessment of Women's Attitudes

As an initial part of a project to develop a model informed consent process for BRCA1 testing, we conducted a series of focus groups. At the groups, women initially expressed great interest in testing, but their interest diminished after learning more. If offered testing, women would most want to learn about test accuracy, practical details of testing, and management options if the result was positive. Perceived benefits of testing included gaining information leading to risk reduction, relief of uncertainty, more responsible parenting, and assisting in research. Perceived risks included the discomfort and cost of the testing process itself, and anxiety after a positive result. The risk of possible insurance discrimination was rarely mentioned spontaneously. Many women would want their providers to make recommendations, rather than be nondirective about testing. We observed that women vary greatly in their informational and counseling needs, and suggest that the informed consent process should be individualized, taking into account a woman's perception and her preferences for how testing decisions should be made.     

Historical Origins of Argumentum ad Consequentiam

What are the historical origins of the argumentum ad consequentiam, the argument from (or literally, to) consequences, sometimes featured as an informal fallacy in logic textbooks? As shown in this paper, knowledge of the argument can be traced back to Aristotle (who did not treat it as a fallacy, but as a reasonable argument). And this type of argument shows a spotty history of recognition in logic texts and manuals over the centuries. But how it got into the modern logic textbooks as a fallacy remains somewhat obscure. Its modern genesis is traced to the logic text of James McCosh (1879).     

Uncertainty and the Ethics of Clinical Trials

A probabilistic explication is offered of equipoise and uncertainty in clinical trials. In order to be useful in the justification of clinical trials, equipoise has to be interpreted in terms of overlapping probability distributions of possible treatment outcomes, rather than point estimates representing expectation values. Uncertainty about treatment outcomes is shown to be a necessary but insufficient condition for the ethical defensibility of clinical trials. Additional requirements are proposed for the nature of that uncertainty. The indecisiveness of our criteria for cautious decision-making under uncertainty creates the leeway that makes clinical trials defensible.     

Men’s Decision-Making About Predictive <Emphasis Type="Italic">BRCA1/2</Emphasis> Testing: The Role of Family

Men who have a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer may be offered a predictive genetic test to determine whether or not they carry the family specific BRCA1/2 mutation. Male carriers may be at increased risk of breast and prostate cancers. Relatively little is known about at-risk men’s decision-making about BRCA1/2 testing. This qualitative study explores the influences on male patients’ genetic test decisions. Twenty-nine in-depth interviews were undertaken with both carrier and noncarrier men and immediate family members (17 male patients, 8 female partners, and 4 adult children). These explored family members’ experiences of cancer and genetic testing, decision-making about testing, family support, communication of test results within the family, risk perception and risk management. Implicit influences on men’s testing decisions such as familial obligations are examined. The extent to which other family members—partners and adult children—were involved in testing decisions is also described. It is demonstrated that mothers of potential mutation carriers not only perceive themselves as having a right to be involved in making this decision, but also were perceived by their male partners as having a legitimate role to play in decision-making. There was evidence that (adult) children were excluded from the decision-making, and some expressed resentment about this. The implications of these findings for the practice of genetic counseling are discussed.