心理距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响

通过考察时间距离、社会距离和概率距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响, 探究跨期选择和风险选择心理过程的相似性, 并检验不同心理距离影响决策的相似性。结果发现, 无论是时间距离(实验1)、社会距离(实验2)、还是概率距离(实验3), 心理距离越远, 被试在跨期选择中越倾向于延迟选项, 在风险选择中越倾向于风险选项。研究认为, 在跨期选择和风险选择中, 选项的表征结构和选项整体评价时不同选项特征的相对权重具有相似性。随着心理距离增加, 与高识解相联系的金额特征的相对权重增加, 与低识解相联系的时间和概率特征的相对权重降低, 这使得被试更倾向于选择金额较大的延迟和风险选项。同时, 研究发现三类心理距离对两类决策有相似影响, 进一步验证了不同心理距离的本质相似性。     

Empirical underidentification in estimating random utility models: The role of choice sets and standardizations

A standard approach to distinguishing people’s risk preferences is to estimate a random utility model using a power utility function to characterize the preferences and a logit function to capture choice consistency. We demonstrate that with often-used choice situations, this model suffers from empirical underidentification, meaning that parameters cannot be estimated precisely. With simulations of estimation accuracy and Kullback–Leibler divergence measures we examined factors that potentially mitigate this problem. First, using a choice set that guarantees a switch in the utility order between two risky gambles in the range of plausible values leads to higher estimation accuracy than randomly created choice sets or the purpose-built choice sets common in the literature. Second, parameter estimates are regularly correlated, which contributes to empirical underidentification. Examining standardizations of the utility scale, we show that they mitigate this correlation and additionally improve the estimation accuracy for choice consistency. Yet, they can have detrimental effects on the estimation accuracy of risk preference. Finally, we also show how repeated versus distinct choice sets and an increase in observations affect estimation accuracy. Together, these results should help researchers make informed design choices to estimate parameters in the random utility model more precisely.     

Evaluating a dual‐process model of risk: affect and cognition as determinants of risky choice

In three studies we addressed the impact of perceived risk and negative affect on risky choice. In Study 1, we tested a model that included both perceived risk and negative affect as predictors of risky choice. Study 2 and Study 3 replicated these findings and examined the impact of affective versus cognitive processing modes. In all the three studies, both perceived risk and negative affect were shown to be significant predictors of risky choice. Furthermore, Study 2 and Study 3 showed that an affective processing mode strengthened the relation between negative affect and risky choice and that a cognitive processing mode strengthened the relation between perceived risk and risky choice. Together, these findings show support for the idea of a dual‐process model of risky choice. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Choices in Life: A Clinical Tool for Facilitating Midlife Review

A critical developmental task of midlife involves reviewing one's past as well as preparing for one's future. The ability to identify past choices, task responsibility for them, and utilize developing patterns in future decision making is seen as a critical component of continued adult development. The Choicemap offers a structured clinical tool to guide such a midlife review. Engaging in this process assists adults in developing choicemaking skills, and provides a powerful clinical intervention.     

The influence of caloric information on cafeteria food choices

We evaluated the effect of posting caloric information on food purchases at a cafeteria. Purchases of more than 14,300 entrees, vegetables, and salads by 6,970 customers were unobtrusively monitored via the cash register inventory control system during 15 evening observations. A quasi-multiple-baseline design across food groups was used to test the additive effect of labeling the three lowest caloric choices for vegetables, salads, and entrees. A linear logit analysis confirmed that labeling increased the probability of low calorie selections for vegetables and salads, but not for entrees. Observations of meals purchased by a subsample of 413 customers indicated labeling did not change the total caloric content of meals. The number of customers and total sales per evening were unaffected by the labeling intervention. The results suggest that manipulating environmental cues may be an effective method for changing food purchases in a cafeteria, but labeling individual items may not be the best way to decrease total calories purchased.     

初中生风险决策表现的认知建模分析:自尊及性别的影响

选取山东省某初中308名学生,采用爱荷华博弈任务,使用“效用-固着”模型对决策包含的动机、认知、反应心理过程进行认知建模分析,探究自尊水平和性别对初中生风险决策表现的影响。结果发现,初中生的风险决策表现不佳,对损失不敏感。在控制年级的影响后,分层回归分析表明:(1)自尊水平和性别对决策的动机过程的影响存在交互作用,男生无论自尊高低对收益都较为关注,女生中高自尊者更加关注收益。(2)决策成绩不存在显著的性别差异,但男生更多选择有着较高损失值的不利选项,而女生更多选择损失频率较低的有利选项。(3)自尊的影响主要体现在动机和认知过程,高自尊水平者在动机过程中更多表现出对损失的规避,在认知过程中更多地考虑维持之前的决策选择。     

Risk-sensitive choice in humans as a function of an earnings budget

Risky choice in 3 adult humans was investigated across procedural manipulations designed to model energy-budget manipulations conducted with nonhumans. Subjects were presented with repeated choices between a fixed and a variable number of points. An energy budget was simulated by use of an earnings budget, defined as the number of points needed within a block of trials for points to be exchanged for money. During positive earnings-budget conditions, exclusive preference for the fixed option met the earnings requirement. During negative earnings-budget conditions, exclusive preference for the certain option did not meet the earnings requirement, but choice for the variable option met the requirement probabilistically. Choice was generally risk averse (the fixed option was preferred) when the earnings budget was positive and risk prone (the variable option was preferred) when the earnings budget was negative. Furthermore, choice was most risk prone during negative earnings-budget conditions in which the earnings requirement was most stringent. Local choice patterns were also frequently consistent with the predictions of a dynamic optimization model, indicating that choice was simultaneously sensitive to short-term choice contingencies, current point earnings, and the earnings requirement. Overall, these results show that the patterns of risky choice generated by energy-budget variables can also be produced by choice contingencies that do not involve immediate survival, and that risky choice in humans may be similar to that shown in nonhumans when choice is studied under analogous experimental conditions.     

Group choice: the ideal free distribution of human social behavior

Group choice refers to the distribution of group members between two choice alternatives over time. The ideal free distribution (IFD), an optimal foraging model from behavioral ecology, predicts that the ratio of foragers at two resource sites should equal the ratio of obtained resources, a prediction that is formally analogous to the matching law of individual choice, except that group choice is a social phenomenon. Two experiments investigated the usefulness of IFD analyses of human group choice and individual-based explanations that might account for the group-level events. Instead of nonhuman animals foraging at two sites for resources, a group of humans chose blue and red cards to receive points that could earn cash prizes. The groups chose blue and red cards in ratios in positive relation to the ratios of points associated with the cards. When group choice ratios and point ratios were plotted on logarithmic coordinates and fitted with regression lines, the slopes (i.e., sensitivity measures) approached 1.0 but tended to fall short of it (i.e., undermatching), with little bias and little unaccounted for variance. These experiments demonstrate that an IFD analysis of group choice is possible and useful, and suggest that group choice may be explained by the individual members' tendency to optimize reinforcement.     

The good,the bad (and the ugly): The role of curiosity in subjective well‐being and risky behaviors among adolescents

Previous studies have shown that enhanced trait curiosity has positive influence on well‐being. It remains an open question, however, whether curiosity has any detrimental effects on behavioral outcomes in adolescence. The main aim of this research was to investigate the role of trait curiosity in the prediction of risky behavior engagement and subjective well‐being (SWB) among adolescents. A total of 371 Serbian adolescents (mean age 15.5, SD = 0.57) participated in the 5‐month follow up study. The results showed that the embracing component of curiosity (but not stretching) predicted risky behavior engagement, while the stretching component of curiosity (but not embracing) predicted positive affect. In addition, neither embracing nor stretching was a significant predictor of negative affect and life satisfaction. The results of this study call into question the conceptualization of curiosity as a completely positive emotional‐motivational system, and suggest that curiosity can contribute to negative outcomes in adolescence.     

Individual Differences in Risky Decision Making: A Meta‐analysis of Sensation Seeking and Impulsivity with the Balloon Analogue Risk Task

To represent the state‐of‐the‐art in an effort to understand the relation between personality and risk taking, we selected a popular decision task with characteristics that parallel risk taking in the real world and two personality traits commonly believed to influence risk taking. A meta‐analysis is presented based on 22 studies of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task from which correlations with sensation seeking and impulsivity assessments could be obtained. Results calculated on a total of 2120 participants showed that effect size for the relation of sensation seeking with risk taking was in the small–moderate range ( = .14), whereas the effect size for impulsivity was just around the small effect size threshold ( = .10). Although we considered participants' demographics as moderators, we found only significantly larger effect sizes for the older adolescents and young adults compared with other ages. The findings of the present review supported the view that inconsistencies in personality–risk research were mostly due to random fluctuations of specific effect sizes, rather than to lack of theoretical ties or to measurement unreliability. It is also concluded that studies aimed at relating individual differences in personality to performance in experimental decision tasks need an appropriate sample size to achieve the power to produce significant results. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.