Apocalyptic Argument and the Anticipation of Catastrophe: the Prediction of Risk and the Risks of Prediction

This essay proposes to extend the model of apocalyptic argument developedin my recent book Arguing the Apocalypse (OLeary, 1994) beyond the study ofreligious discourse, by applying this model to the debate over awell-publicized earthquake prediction that caused a widespread panic in theAmerican midwest in December, 1990. The first section of the essay willsummarize the essential elements of apocalyptic argument as I have earlierdefined them; the second section will apply the model to the case of the NewMadrid, Missouri, earthquake prediction, in order to demonstrate thatcertain patterns of reasoning characteristic of religious apocalyptic arepresent in the discourse over an anticipated local disaster. My ultimatepurpose is to show that predictions of global and local catastrophe mayserve as extreme cases that will illuminate the dynamics of predictiveargument in general. Thus my argument will seek to undercut Daniel Bellsdistinction between prophecy and prediction (Bell, 1973) by establishingthat these discourses share identifiable formal and substantivecharacteristics, and depend for their rhetorical effect on anxiety, hope,far, and excitement as modes of temporal anticipation.     

SOMETHING TO OFFEND EVERYONE: TIPLER'S VISION OF IMMORTALITY

Abstract. Frank Tipler's The Physics of Immortality provides abundant cause for intellectual offense—including challenges to physics, to theology, and, seemingly, to common sense. Few philosophical conundrums remain unaddressed. Still, the book is stimulating and well presented.     

Risk perception and the location of a repository for spent nuclear fuel

This study investigates lay people's reactions to a repository for nuclear waste. Risk perception is seen as a complex concept, comprising both affective and cognitive components. Attitude towards nuclear power and trust in experts and authorities had a substantial impact on risk perception, while personal knowledge about nuclear waste disposal had no effect. Thus, the more positive one's attitude towards nuclear power is and the more trust one has in experts and authorities, the lower one's risk perception is. Also, reactions were expected to vary with distance between the home district and the location of a repository. These variations differed in nature for people with alternative levels of risk judgement. The distance between the home and a repository affected approval of the proposed site. Distance between home and repository also had an effect on risk feelings and somewhat less on beliefs about consequences. Estimated total risk was directly mediated by beliefs about consequences, but even more so by risk feelings. With regard to risk, one can conclude that it is important to make a distinction between an emotional and a cognitive component of risk perception.     

My place,your place,and no place: Behavior settings as a risk factor for HIV-related injection practices of drug users in Baltimore,Maryland

Information is sparse on the social context of illicit drug injection behaviors and their relationship to HIV infection. This study examined relationships between injection settings, injecting with others, and HIV risk behaviors of sharing needles and not cleaning contaminated needles in a sample of 630 inner-city injecting drug users in Baltimore, MD. Through open-ended interviews, five primary settings of injection behavior were identified. These settings included one's own, friends' and mother's residence, shooting galleries, and semipublic areas. Most participants reported injecting in their own residence (92%) and friends' residence (86%) in the prior 6 months. In a multiple regression analysis, injecting at friends' residence, in shooting galleries, and in semipublic areas and frequency of injecting with others were significantly associated with frequency of sharing uncleaned needles, “slipping” (i.e., failure to disinfect shared needles), and not always cleaning used needles before injecting. Results suggest that interventions may benefit from targeting settings as well as behaviors to reduce the spread of HIV. This research was supported by grants DA04334, DA05911, DA06313, and DA08985 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.     

AN ENERGY/AWARENESS/INFORMATION INTERPRETATION OF PHYSICAL AND MENTAL REALITY

Abstract. Interpreting the universe as a medium-message process has explanatory value in both scientific and philosophical/spiritual contexts. From this perspective, reality is seen to comprise an enduring medium modulated by transient information. Physically, the medium is energy. Mentally, the medium is awareness. Algorithmically, the medium is an information generator, a programmatic entity that generates temporary informational patterns which modulate the medium's energy aspect in space and time to produce matter and physical phenomena and modulate the medium's awareness aspect to produce subjective experience, mind. In philosophical terms, the medium is Being; the medium modulated by the message is existence.     

三种心理测量理论的信度观

目前,心理测量领域中主要存在三大理论派别。本文分别对这三种理论即经典测验理论、可概括性理论和项目反应理论作了简要介绍,着重分析这三种理论的信度观。文章讨论了这三种信度观的理论基础和研究方法,比较了它们的异同,指出经典测验理论存在的一些不足及概化理论和项目反应理论所作的改进。概化理论是对经典测验理论的扩展,它用多维的信度指标（概化系数）替代了经典测验理论的信度系数,项目反应理论则从信息量的角度出发,用项目信息函数、测验信息函数等指标更具体深入地反映项目、测验的测量可靠程度。     

Specificity of Dating Aggression and Its Justification Among High-Risk Adolescents

Ninety-five high-risk adolescents were studied to determine whether their dating aggression and its justification as a response to interpersonal problems were specific to the current partner, general to dating relationships, or part of a global age-mate (same-sex peers and opposite-sex dating partners) aggression problem. Approximately one-third of males and two-thirds of females reported physical aggression against their current dating partner. Males' aggression (and its justification) toward their current dating partner was part of a generalized pattern of dating aggression, whereas for females, physical aggression against a current dating partner (and its justification) was partner-specific and unrelated to aggression in other relationships. Findings are discussed with regard to intervention and future research on adolescent dating aggression.     

时序信息提取机制的探索

对时序信息加工的经典研究是采用新近性判断范型,结果发现其提取机制是以新近性为基础的逆向串行搜索过程。本研究采用新近性判断范型和早远性判断范型对时序信息的提取机制进行了深入的考察,结果表明：（ｌ）提取时序信息既存在逆向串行搜索,又存在顺向串行搜索;（２）早远性判断和新近性判断任务对不同部分时序信息恢复的效应不同,其中早远性判断易化早远部分,新近性判断易化新近部分──表现为对相应部分辨别力的提高和正确反应潜伏期的缩短;（３）在不同的时序信息提取任务中,被试会根据具体条件进行反转反应。     

WHY A BRAIN CAPABLE OF LANGUAGE EVOLVED ONLY ONCE: PREFRONTAL CORTEX AND SYMBOL LEARNING

Abstract. Language and information processes are critical issues in scientific controversies regarding the qualities that epitomize humanness. Whereas some theorists claim human mental uniqueness with regard to language, others point to successes in teaching language skills to other animals. However, although these animals may learn names for things, they show little ability to utilize a complex framework of symbolic reference. In such a framework, words or other symbols refer not only to objects and concepts but also to sequential and hierarchical relationships with other symbols. This process is essential to human mental operations, including language, mathematics, and music. In humans, these operations may have coevolved with the prefrontal area of the cerebral cortex, which is proportionately much larger in humans than in other animals and more intricately linked with other areas of the brain. Analysis of the structure and function of the prefrontal area suggests that it is centrally involved in the operation of higher-order associative relationships involving the subordination of one set of associations to another. This alternate learning strategy apparently appeared at the cost of certain sensory, motor, or limbic abilities. The payoff was symbolic thinking. Humans thus are unique among species, not just for their highly developed language ability but for their odd style of thinking and learning.