Fetal Risks,Relative Risks,and Relatives' Risks

Several factors related to fetal risk render it more or less acceptable in justifying constraints on the behavior of pregnant women. Risk is an unavoidable part of pregnancy and childbirth, one that women must balance against other vital personal and family interests. Two particular issues relate to the fairness of claims that pregnant women are never entitled to put their fetuses at risk: relative risks and relatives' risks. The former have been used—often spuriously—to advance arguments against activities, such as home birth, that may incur risk; the latter implicate the nature of relationships in determining the acceptability of coercing or precluding activities. Motivated reasoning by clinicians and judges leads to inaccurate risk assessments, and judgments based on false claims to objectivity. Such judgments undermine the moral and legal standing of pregnant women and do not advance the interests of fetuses, pregnant women, families, or states.     

行为经济学中的不平等规避

不平等规避是指人们在资源分配中厌恶不平等的分配结果,为了达成平等甚至愿意付出一定代价的现象。这一现象是经济学中常见的行为"异象",属于社会偏好理论的研究范畴。不平等规避的经典模型是FS-ERC模型,后来的研究者从消极情绪、意图和社会奖励等视角对不平等规避的心理机制进行了深入探索。不平等规避会受到多种因素影响,例如人口统计学变量、社会距离、决策时间和实验任务特征等。未来的研究可以从不平等规避的心理机制、神经基础,以及对不平等规避的稳健性进行再验证等方面展开。     

Who Is at Risk for Psychological Distress in Genetic Testing Programs for Hereditary Cancer Disorders?

Presymptomatic identification of disease gene carriers is becoming an increasingly common part of the clinical management of hereditary cancer disorders. With an expected increase in the number of requests for DNA testing and the limited resources for counseling, the amount of time genetic counselors are able to spend with test candidates will decrease. It is therefore important for counselors to identify persons at risk for psychological distress. Based on a review of experiences with Huntington disease and cancer patients, we describe factors likely to evoke distress in genetic cancer candidates. We also discuss the sometimes widely different ways that test candidates and their partners respond to genetic testing. By exploring risk factors for distress in relevant domains of the research, we can offer counselors guidelines for determining who may need extra counseling.     

Are All Preferences Nosy?

The significance which any human action carries for normative reasoning is held to include its causal preconditions as well as its causal consequences. That claim is defended against a series of natural objections. The point is then extended from actions to preferences via discussion of Barry and Dworkin. The grounds for excluding nosy preferences from aggregation must involve appeal not just to rights and intention but also to the consequences of acting on them. But then some of the features in virtue of which nosy preferences are held to be objectionable will also be present in any other preference. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

求偶动机对男性冒险行为倾向的影响

基于风险行为的性选择理论, 通过内隐启动的方法探讨了求偶线索与奖赏线索对两性风险行为报告的影响。研究结果显示, 男性接触求偶线索, 与接触奖赏线索相比, 更有可能进行娱乐领域、健康领域与社会领域的风险行为活动; 而女性接触奖赏线索后, 与求偶线索相比, 更有可能会从事社会领域的风险行为活动; 两性接触求偶线索与奖赏线索后都较少可能从事经济领域的风险行为活动。这些结果符合性选择理论, 说明与求偶有关的信息线索能够诱导男性进行高风险活动, 因为在进化过程中冒险行为可以作为好基因的标志增加男性获得配偶的机会。这些结果还揭示了, 求偶动机对男性冒险行为的诱发作用远胜于外部动机(如金钱奖赏), 因为求偶是人类在长期进化过程中形成的本能需求。     

Assessing risky public investments with MUSTARD

This paper presents a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet‐Lagrèze and Siskos and Quasi‐UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a non‐linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function. In contrast with the general UTA model, the Quasi‐UTA specification structures the partial utilities as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function. The software MUSTARD implements different variants of these models. Firstly, it offers the basic deterministic UTA model of disaggregation, but also its first programmed stochastic version. In both cases, the software proceeds stepwise and interactively helping the decision maker to formulate the problem and state preferences between projects; in the stochastic case, the decision maker is even helped to build the criteria distributions. The Quasi‐UTA specification can be introduced in this disaggregation model. Secondly, the software offers an aggregation model whereby the Quasi‐UTA partial utility functions are built separately through specific questioning processes. The questions relating to deterministic criteria are of the ‘direct rating type’, while those of the stochastic criteria are either of the ‘variable probability’ or the ‘variable outcome’ type. The criteria weights can be assessed by the ‘swing weight’ method or by a UTA‐II side‐program. As an example as well as a test of the Quasi‐UTA aggregation approach, the paper presents its application to a real problem of selecting road investment projects in Belgium. Several experts and civil servants were interviewed, and their individual utility functions derived. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return, which is computed on the basis of the projects certain equivalent money value. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating the roots of the favourite–longshot bias: an analysis of decision making by supply‐ and demand‐side agents in parallel betting markets

This paper offers new insights into the behavioural origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias — an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. A number of alternative explanations has been offered for this phenomenon but the main debate focuses on whether it is caused by the behaviour of those supplying betting markets (bookmakers) or of the demand‐side agents in these markets (bettors) . This study analyses a new data source which offers detailed information for a large sample of recent UK horseraces on decision‐making behaviour within the parimutuel and the parallel bookmaker‐based betting markets. The results offer strong evidence for the existence of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias in bookmaker‐based markets, with a corresponding absence of such an effect in the parimutuel case. These results offer support for the view that the origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias lie principally in the decisions of bookmakers rather than in the decisions of bettors. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Making sense of mentoring or mentoring making sense? Reflections on the mentoring process by adult mentors with young people†

This paper sets out to look at the processes of mentoring from the perspectives of adult mentors who were interviewed as part of a wider study of young people's perceptions and understandings of informal mentoring processes. It seeks to clarify the processes of mentoring within the context of the ‘risk society’ by posing the question, how do young people and mentors perceive these processes? What do mentors get out of the mentoring relationship? Findings from a qualitative study of informal mentoring relationships are drawn on to suggest that the mentors perceive the experience of being identified as a mentor and the processes of mentoring in highly positive terms. It is argued that this provides a form of ‘cultural capital for mentors’ in helping them to make sense of the challenges and dilemmas they face as adults. It is concluded that this finding has important implications for the design of mentoring interventions with young people. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits

This paper re‐examines the commonly observed inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit. We propose that this relationship occurs because people rely on affect when judging the risk and benefit of specific hazards. Evidence supporting this proposal is obtained in two experimental studies. Study 1 investigated the inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgments under a time‐pressure condition designed to limit the use of analytic thought and enhance the reliance on affect. As expected, the inverse relationship was strengthened when time pressure was introduced. Study 2 tested and confirmed the hypothesis that providing information designed to alter the favorability of one's overall affective evaluation of an item (say nuclear power) would systematically change the risk and benefit judgments for that item. Both studies suggest that people seem prone to using an ‘affect heuristic’ which improves judgmental efficiency by deriving both risk and benefit evaluations from a common source—affective reactions to the stimulus item. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.