Reasoning with conditionals

This paper reviews the psychological investigation of reasoning with conditionals, putting an emphasis on recent work. In the first part, a few methodological remarks are presented. In the second part, the main theories of deductive reasoning (mental rules, mental models, and the probabilistic approach) are considered in turn; their content is summarised and the semantics they assume for if and the way they explain formal conditional reasoning are discussed, in particular in the light of experimental work on the probability of conditionals. The last part presents the recent shift of interest towards the study of conditional reasoning in context, that is, with large knowledge bases and uncertain premises.     

How our brains reason logically

The aim of this article is to strengthen links between cognitive brain research and formal logic. The work covers three fundamental sorts of logical inferences: reasoning in the propositional calculus, i.e. inferences with the conditional “if...then”, reasoning in the predicate calculus, i.e. inferences based on quantifiers such as “all”, “some”, “none”, and reasoning with n-place relations. Studies with brain-damaged patients and neuroimaging experiments indicate that such logical inferences are implemented in overlapping but different bilateral cortical networks, including parts of the fronto-temporal cortex, the posterior parietal cortex, and the visual cortices. I argue that these findings show that we do not use a single deterministic strategy for solving logical reasoning problems. This account resolves many disputes about how humans reason logically and why we sometimes deviate from the norms of formal logic.

A Stimulus-Oriented Approach to Memory

ABSTRACT— Our understanding of short-term recognition memory can be enhanced by careful choice and control of test materials. Theory-driven manipulation of memory test stimuli, including visual textures, human faces, and complex sounds, minimize individual differences and make it possible to predict recognition performance for specific combinations of stimulus items. This stimulus-oriented approach to memory reveals that stimulus similarity plays two different important roles in recognition memory. By exploiting tools used in psychophysics, it is possible to generate mnemometric functions—detailed "snapshots" that capture key features of subjects' memory strength.     

The role of mechanism and covariation information in causal belief updating

The present study is aimed at identifying how prior causal beliefs and covariation information contribute to belief updating when evidence, either compatible or contradictory with those beliefs, is provided. Participants were presented with a cover story with which it was intended to activate or generate a causal belief. Variables related to the prior belief (the type of information, the strength of the cause-effect causal link, and how confident the participant was that the link existed) were assessed. Subsequently, participants were presented with covariational information and were asked to update their beliefs in light of the new evidence. Information reliability, prior belief's causal influence magnitude, and the cause-effect level of contingency portrayed by the new information--but not the type of the prior belief--are shown to directly determine belief updating.     

Predictive models for understanding body dissatisfaction among young males and females in China

The present study was designed to develop predictive models for understanding body dissatisfaction among young males and females (N=1377) in China. Six factors were assessed, including body mass index (BMI), perception of teasing, social pressure to be thin, appearance comparison, thin-ideal internalization and perceived social support. Variables were examined respectively for males and females. One SEM model, which had good fit indices, was developed for each gender. For both genders, BMI exerted its influence on body image directly and indirectly through perception of teasing. Two sources of sociocultural influence, perception of teasing and social pressure to be thin, also directly predicted body dissatisfaction. Gender differences were found in the relation between mediational mechanisms (social comparison and thin-ideal internalization) and body dissatisfaction. For females but not males, social comparison and internalization acted as weak but significant mediators between sociocultural influence and body image concerns. Implications and limitations are discussed.     

Evaluating the reliance on past choices in adaptive learning models

Adaptive learning models are used to predict behavior in repeated choice tasks. Predictions can be based on previous payoffs or previous choices of the player. The current paper proposes a new method for evaluating the degree of reliance on past choices, called equal payoff series extraction (EPSE). Under this method a simulated player has the same exact choices as the player but receives equal constant payoffs from all of the alternatives. Success in predicting the next choice ahead for this simulated player therefore relies strictly on mimicry of previous choices of the actual player. This allows determining the marginal fit of predictions that are not based on the actual task payoffs. To evaluate the reliance on past choices under different models, an experiment was conducted in which 48 participants completed a three-alternative choice task in four task conditions. Two different learning rules were evaluated: an interference rule and a decay rule. The results showed that while the predictions of the decay rule relied more on past choices, only the reliance on past payoffs was associated with improved parameter generality. Moreover, we show that the Equal Payoff Series can be used as a criterion for optimizing parameters resulting in better parameter generalizability.     

The effect of conditioned reinforcement rate on choice: a review

We review the nature of conditioned reinforcement, including evidence that conditioned reinforcers maintain choice behavior in concurrent schedules and that they elevate responding in the terminal links of concurrent‐chains schedules. A question has resurfaced recently: Do theories of choice in concurrent‐chains schedules need to include a term reflecting greater preference for higher rates of conditioned reinforcement? The review of several studies addressing this point suggests that such a term is inappropriate. Elevated rates of conditioned reinforcement (and responding) in the terminal links of concurrent‐chains schedules do not lead to greater preference in the initial link leading to the higher rate of conditioned reinforcement. If anything, the opposite preference is likely to occur. This result is not surprising, since the additional putative conditioned reinforcers in the terminal link are not correlated with a reduction in time to primary reinforcement nor with an increase in value.     

Log-Multiplicative Association Models as Item Response Models

Log-multiplicative association (LMA) models, which are special cases of log-linear models, have interpretations in terms of latent continuous variables. Two theoretical derivations of LMA models based on item response theory (IRT) arguments are presented. First, we show that Anderson and colleagues (Anderson &; Vermunt, 2000; Anderson &; Böckenholt, 2000; Anderson, 2002), who derived LMA models from statistical graphical models, made the equivalent assumptions as Holland (1990) when deriving models for the manifest probabilities of response patterns based on an IRT approach. We also present a second derivation of LMA models where item response functions are specified as functions of rest-scores. These various connections provide insights into the behavior of LMA models as item response models and point out philosophical issues with the use of LMA models as item response models. We show that even for short tests, LMA and standard IRT models yield very similar to nearly identical results when data arise from standard IRT models. Log-multiplicative association models can be used as item response models and do not require numerical integration for estimation.     

Categorical Ontology of Levels and Emergent Complexity: An Introduction

An overview of the following three related papers in this issue presents the Emergence of Highly Complex Systems such as living organisms, man, society and the human mind from the viewpoint of the current Ontological Theory of Levels. The ontology of spacetime structures in the Universe is discussed beginning with the quantum level; then, the striking emergence of the higher levels of reality is examined from a categorical—relational and logical viewpoint. The ontological problems and methodology aspects discussed in the first two papers are followed by a rigorous paper based on Category Theory, Algebraic Topology and Logic that provides a conceptual and mathematical basis for a Categorical Ontology Theory of Levels. The essential links and relationships between the following three papers of this issue are pointed out, and further possible developments are being considered.