Dealing with Multiple Solutions in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

Structural vector autoregressive models (VARs) hold great potential for psychological science, particularly for time series data analysis. They capture the magnitude, direction of influence, and temporal (lagged and contemporaneous) nature of relations among variables. Unified structural equation modeling (uSEM) is an optimal structural VAR instantiation, according to large-scale simulation studies, and it is implemented within an SEM framework. However, little is known about the uniqueness of uSEM results. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate whether multiple solutions result from uSEM analysis and, if so, to demonstrate ways to select an optimal solution. This was accomplished with two simulated data sets, an empirical data set concerning children's dyadic play, and modifications to the group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) program, which implements uSEMs with group- and individual-level relations in a data-driven manner. Results revealed multiple solutions when there were large contemporaneous relations among variables. Results also verified several ways to select the correct solution when the complete solution set was generated, such as the use of cross-validation, maximum standardized residuals, and information criteria. This work has immediate and direct implications for the analysis of time series data and for the inferences drawn from those data concerning human behavior.     

Estimation of the Coefficient of Variation with Minimum Risk: A Sequential Method for Minimizing Sampling Error and Study Cost

The coefficient of variation is an effect size measure with many potential uses in psychology and related disciplines. We propose a general theory for a sequential estimation of the population coefficient of variation that considers both the sampling error and the study cost, importantly without specific distributional assumptions. Fixed sample size planning methods, commonly used in psychology and related fields, cannot simultaneously minimize both the sampling error and the study cost. The sequential procedure we develop is the first sequential sampling procedure developed for estimating the coefficient of variation. We first present a method of planning a pilot sample size after the research goals are specified by the researcher. Then, after collecting a sample size as large as the estimated pilot sample size, a check is performed to assess whether the conditions necessary to stop the data collection have been satisfied. If not an additional observation is collected and the check is performed again. This process continues, sequentially, until a stopping rule involving a risk function is satisfied. Our method ensures that the sampling error and the study costs are considered simultaneously so that the cost is not higher than necessary for the tolerable sampling error. We also demonstrate a variety of properties of the distribution of the final sample size for five different distributions under a variety of conditions with a Monte Carlo simulation study. In addition, we provide freely available functions via the MBESS package in R to implement the methods discussed.     

Health‐adjusted neuropsychological test norms based on 463 older Swedish car drivers

There is a need for improved normative information in particular for older persons. The present study provides neuropsychological test norms on seven cognitive tests used in a sample representing the general older driving population, when uncontrolled and controlled for physical health. A group of 463 healthy Swedish car drivers, aged 65 to 84 years, participated in a medical and neuropsychological examination. The latter included tests of visual scanning, mental shifting, visual spatial function, memory, reaction time, selective attention, and simultaneous capacity. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated that, when uncontrolled for health, old age was associated with significant impairment on all seven tests. Education was associated with a significant advantage for all tests except most reaction time subtests. Women outperformed men on selective attention. Controlling for health did not consistently change the associations with education, but generally weakened those with age, indicating rises in normative scores of up to 0.36 SD (residual). In terms of variance explained, impaired health predicted on average 2.5%, age 2.9%, education 2.1% and gender 0.1%. It was concluded (1) that individual regression‐based predictions of expected values have the advantage of allowing control for the impact of health on normative scores in addition to the adjustment for various demographic and performance‐related variables and (2) that health‐adjusted norms have the potential to classify functional status more accurately, to the extent that these norms diverge from norms uncontrolled for physical health.     

An alternating least squares method for the weighted approximation of a symmetric matrix

Bailey and Gower examined the least squares approximationC to a symmetric matrixB, when the squared discrepancies for diagonal elements receive specific nonunit weights. They focussed on mathematical properties of the optimalC, in constrained and unconstrained cases, rather than on how to obtainC for any givenB. In the present paper a computational solution is given for the case whereC is constrained to be positive semidefinite and of a fixed rankr or less. The solution is based on weakly constrained linear regression analysis.The authors are obliged to John C. Gower for stimulating this research.     

情绪体验影响估算策略运用的认知与脑机制

揭示情绪体验影响个体完成各种认知任务的认知神经机制是研究者关注的热点问题。以往研究主要采用问卷法和行为实验, 集中考察了焦虑对估算策略运用的影响, 但这种影响潜在的脑机制尚不清楚, 对焦虑以外的情绪体验与估算策略运用之间关系的研究也极其缺乏, 而情绪调节对估算策略运用影响方面的研究基本处于空白。本研究将采用面孔表情图片作为情绪刺激材料, 结合事件相关电位(event related potential, ERP)技术, 采用启动范式, 尝试从外显和内隐两个角度, 考察不同效价的情绪体验在估算策略运用过程中所起的作用, 进而揭示情绪调节影响估算策略执行的时间动态特征和大脑激活模式。这将有助于充分认识情绪体验影响估算策略运用的认知与脑机制, 为更好的优化估算策略运用效果提供实证依据。     

A reformulation of the general Euclidean model for the external analysis of preference data

This paper discusses least squares methods for fitting a reformulation of the general Euclidean model for the external analysis of preference data. The reformulated subject weights refer to a common set of reference vectors for all subjects and hence are comparable across subjects. If the rotation of the stimulus space is fixed, the subject weight estimates in the model are uniquely determined. Weight estimates can be guaranteed nonnegative. While the reformulation is a metric model for single stimulus data, the paper briefly discusses extensions to nonmetric, pairwise, and logistic models. The reformulated model is less general than Carroll's earlier formulation.The author is grateful to Christopher J. Nachtsheim for his helpful suggestions.     

Links between self-reported and laboratory behavioral impulsivity

Havik, M., Jakobson, A., Tamm, M., Paaver, M., Konstabel, K., Uusberg, A., Allik, J., Ööpik, V. & Kreegipuu, K. (2012). Links between self‐reported and laboratory behavioral impulsivity. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 53, 216–223. A major problem in the research considering impulsivity is the lack of mutual understanding on how to measure and define impulsivity. Our study examined the relationship between self‐reported impulsivity, behavioral excitatory and inhibitory processes and time perception. Impulsivity – fast, premature, thoughtless or disinhibited behavior – was assessed in 58 normal, healthy participants (30 men, mean age 21.9 years). Self‐reported impulsivity as measured by Adaptive and Maladaptive Impulsivity Scale (AMIS) and behavioral excitatory and inhibitory processes as measured by Stop Signal Task were not directly related. Time perception, measured by the retrospective Time Estimation Task, was related to both. The length of the perceived time interval was positively correlated to AMIS Disinhibition subscale and negatively to several Stop Signal Task parameters. The longer subjects perceived the duration to last, the higher was their score on Disinhibition scale and the faster were their reactive responses in the Stop Signal Task. In summary our findings support the idea of cognitive tempo as a possible mechanism underlying impulsive behavior.     

多项式回归与一致性研究：应用及分析

本文介绍了多项式回归的分析方法, 讨论并验证了它相比传统的差异分数分析法在检验一致性假设中的优势。针对目前该方法在国内应用方面的缺失状况, 本文从分析基准、理论推导、分析步骤和假设检验等方面完善了多项式回归与响应面分析相结合的应用分析框架。最后, 本文以个人-组织价值观一致性对员工情感性变革承诺的影响研究为例, 对分析框架的具体应用进行了说明。结果表明, 被传统差异分数很好支持的一致性效应并不一定完美, 新的分析框架能够揭示更多的有用信息并给管理实践带来更具体而准确的引导。     

Limited information estimation and testing of discretized multivariate normal structural models

Discretized multivariate normal structural models are often estimated using multistage estimation procedures. The asymptotic properties of parameter estimates, standard errors, and tests of structural restrictions on thresholds and polychoric correlations are well known. It was not clear how to assess the overall discrepancy between the contingency table and the model for these estimators. It is shown that the overall discrepancy can be decomposed into a distributional discrepancy and a structural discrepancy. A test of the overall model specification is proposed, as well as a test of the distributional specification (i.e., discretized multivariate normality). Also, the small sample performance of overall, distributional, and structural tests, as well as of parameter estimates and standard errors is investigated under conditions of correct model specification and also under mild structural and/or distributional misspecification. It is found that relatively small samples are needed for parameter estimates, standard errors, and structural tests. Larger samples are needed for the distributional and overall tests. Furthermore, parameter estimates, standard errors, and structural tests are surprisingly robust to distributional misspecification. This research was supported by the Department of Universities, Research and Information Society (DURSI) of the Catalan Government, and by grants BSO2000-0661 and BSO2003-08507 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology.