Overestimation and contraction biases of depth information stored in working memory depend on spatial configuration

Depth perception is essential for effective interaction with the environment. Although the accuracy of depth perception has been studied extensively, it is unclear how accurate the depth information is stored in working memory. In this study, we investigated the accuracy and systematic biases of depth representation by a delayed estimation task. The memory array consisted of items presented at various stereoscopic depth positions, and the participants were instructed to estimate the depth position of one target item after a retention interval. We examined the effect of spatial configuration by comparing the memory performance in the whole-display condition where non-target memory items were present during retrieval with that in the single-display condition where non-target memory items were absent. In the single-display condition, we found an overestimation bias that the depth estimates were farther than the corresponding depth positions defined by disparity, and a contraction bias that the stored depth positions near the observer were overestimated and those far from the observer were underestimated. The magnitude of these biases increased with the number of to-be-stored items. However, in the whole-display condition, the overestimation bias was corrected and the contraction bias did not increase with the number of to-be-stored items. Our findings suggested that the number of to-be-stored items could affect the accuracy of depth working memory, and its effect depended crucially on whether the information of spatial configuration of memory display was available at the retrieval stage.     

Two-Stage maximum likelihood estimation in the misspecified restricted latent class model

The maximum likelihood classification rule is a standard method to classify examinee attribute profiles in cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs). Its asymptotic behaviour is well understood when the model is assumed to be correct, but has not been explored in the case of misspecified latent class models. This paper investigates the asymptotic behaviour of a two-stage maximum likelihood classifier under a misspecified CDM. The analysis is conducted in a general restricted latent class model framework addressing all types of CDMs. Sufficient conditions are proposed under which a consistent classification can be obtained by using a misspecified model. Discussions are also provided on the inconsistency of classification under certain model misspecification scenarios. Simulation studies and a real data application are conducted to illustrate these results. Our findings can provide some guidelines as to when a misspecified simple model or a general model can be used to provide a good classification result.     

Subjective,physiological, and behavioural responses towards evaluatively conditioned stimuli

Evaluative Conditioning (EC) is commonly defined as the change in liking of a stimulus (conditioned stimulus, CS) due to its pairings with an affective unconditioned stimulus (US). In Experiment 1, we investigated effects of repeated stimulus pairings on affective responses, i.e. valence and arousal ratings, pupil size, and duration estimation. After repeatedly pairing the CSs with affective USs, a consistent pattern of affective responses emerged: The CS_negative was rated as being more negative and more arousing, resulted in larger pupils, and was temporally overestimated compared to the CS_neutral. In Experiment 2, the influence of a mere instruction about the contingency between a CS and US on affective responses was examined. After mere instruction about upcoming pairings between the CS and US, subjective ratings also changed, but there was neither evidence for differential pupillary responses nor for differential temporal processing. The results indicate that EC via pairings or instructions can change the affective responses towards formerly neutral stimuli and introduce pupil size as a physiological measure in EC research. However, Experiment 2 suggests that there might be moderating factors based on the type of EC procedure involved.     

The estimation of vehicle speed and stopping distance by pedestrians crossing streets in a naturalistic traffic environment

The ability to estimate vehicle speed and stopping distance accurately is important for pedestrians to make safe road crossing decisions. In this study, a field experiment in a naturalistic traffic environment was conducted to measure pedestrians’ estimation of vehicle speed and stopping distance when they are crossing streets. Forty-four participants (18–45 years old) reported their estimation on 1043 vehicles, and the corresponding actual vehicle speed and stopping distance were recorded. In the speed estimation task, pedestrians’ performances change in different actual speed levels and different weather conditions. In sunny conditions, pedestrians tended to underestimate actual vehicle speeds that were higher than 40 km/h but were able to accurately estimate speeds that were lower than 40 km/h. In rainy conditions, pedestrians tended to underestimate actual vehicle speeds that were higher than 45 km/h but were able to accurately estimate speeds ranging from 35 km/h to 45 km/h. In stopping distance estimation task, the accurate estimation interval ranged from 60 km/h to 65 km/h, and pedestrians generally underestimated the stopping distance when vehicles were travelling over 65 km/h. The results show that pedestrians have accurate estimation intervals that vary by weather conditions. When the speed of the oncoming vehicle exceeded the upper bound of the accurate interval, pedestrians were more likely to underestimate the vehicle speed, increasing their risk of incorrectly deciding to cross when it is not safe to do so.     

认知诊断缺失数据处理方法的比较：零替换、多重插补与极大似然估计法

数据缺失在测验中经常发生, 认知诊断评估也不例外, 数据缺失会导致诊断结果的偏差。首先, 通过模拟研究在多种实验条件下比较了常用的缺失数据处理方法。结果表明：(1)缺失数据导致估计精确性下降, 随着人数与题目数量减少、缺失率增大、题目质量降低, 所有方法的PCCR均下降, Bias绝对值和RMSE均上升。(2)估计题目参数时, EM法表现最好, 其次是MI, FIML和ZR法表现不稳定。(3)估计被试知识状态时, EM和FIML表现最好, MI和ZR表现不稳定。其次, 在PISA2015实证数据中进一步探索了不同方法的表现。综合模拟和实证研究结果, 推荐选用EM或FIML法进行缺失数据处理。     

使用似然比D2统计量的题目属性定义方法

题目属性的定义是实施认知诊断评价的关键步骤, 通过有丰富经验的领域专家对题目的属性进行定义是当前的主要方法, 然而该方法受到许多主观经验因素的影响。寻找客观的题目属性定义或验证方法可以为主观定义过程提供策略支持或对结果进行改进, 因此已经引起研究者们的关注。本研究构建了一种简单高效的题目属性定义方法, 研究使用似然比D2统计量从作答数据中估计题目属性的方法, 实现属性掌握模式、题目参数和题目属性向量的联合估计。模拟研究结果表明, 使用似然比D2统计量可以有效地识别题目的属性向量, 该方法一方面可以实现新编制题目属性向量的在线估计, 另一方面可以验证已经定义的题目属性向量的准确性。     

Estimation of stimulus-response curves by bayesian least squares

Bayesian least squares techniques are adapted to estimation of stimulus-response curves, rather broadly conceived. Illustrative examples deal with estimation of person characteristic curves and item characteristic curves in the context of mental testing, and estimation of a stimulus-response curve using data from a psychophysical experiment.The present paper is a version of an invited address of the same title, presented to the meetings of The Psychometric Society in Monterey, California on June 8, 1979, expanded by adding Example 1.The writer gratefully acknowledges the benefit of conversations with Don Pierce, and with John Shih, whose related work on density estimation pointed up an error in the original version of Section 2. He acknowledges, gratefully, support by the National Science Foundation through Grants MCS 76-02166A01 and MCS 78-01932. And he wishes to express his gratitude for the cordial hospitality and gracious cooperation offered by Professor Donald M. MacKay and the staff of the Department of Communication, University of Keele, during spring and summer, 1976; in particular, by Professor Dennis P. Andrews and Keichi Uchikawa, who kindly furnished data, a small portion of which is used in the illustrative example, Example 2.     

Empirical underidentification in estimating random utility models: The role of choice sets and standardizations

A standard approach to distinguishing people’s risk preferences is to estimate a random utility model using a power utility function to characterize the preferences and a logit function to capture choice consistency. We demonstrate that with often-used choice situations, this model suffers from empirical underidentification, meaning that parameters cannot be estimated precisely. With simulations of estimation accuracy and Kullback–Leibler divergence measures we examined factors that potentially mitigate this problem. First, using a choice set that guarantees a switch in the utility order between two risky gambles in the range of plausible values leads to higher estimation accuracy than randomly created choice sets or the purpose-built choice sets common in the literature. Second, parameter estimates are regularly correlated, which contributes to empirical underidentification. Examining standardizations of the utility scale, we show that they mitigate this correlation and additionally improve the estimation accuracy for choice consistency. Yet, they can have detrimental effects on the estimation accuracy of risk preference. Finally, we also show how repeated versus distinct choice sets and an increase in observations affect estimation accuracy. Together, these results should help researchers make informed design choices to estimate parameters in the random utility model more precisely.     

Estimation and visualization of confusability matrices from adaptive measurement data

We present a simple but effective method based on Luce’s choice axiom [Luce, R.D. (1959). Individual choice behavior: A theoretical analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons] for consistent estimation of the pairwise confusabilities of items in a multiple-choice recognition task with arbitrarily chosen choice-sets. The method combines the exact (non-asymptotic) Bayesian way of assessing uncertainty with the unbiasedness emphasized in the classical frequentist approach.We apply the method to data collected using an adaptive computer game designed for prevention of reading disability. A player’s estimated confusability of phonemes (or more accurately, phoneme-grapheme connections) and larger units of language is visualized in an easily understood way with color cues and explicit indication of the accuracy of the estimates. Visualization of learning-related changes in the player’s performance is considered.The empirical validity of the choice axiom is evaluated using the game data itself. The axiom appears to hold reasonably well although a small systematic violation is observable for the smallest choice-set sizes.