基于两水平回归模型的调节效应分析及其效应量

使用多元回归法进行调节效应分析在社科领域已常有应用。简述了目前多元回归法的调节效应分析存在的不足,包括人为变换检验模型、自变量和调节变量区分不足、误差方差齐性的假设难以满足、调节效应量指标ΔR²没有直接测量调节变量对自变量与因变量关系的调节程度。比较好的方法是用两水平回归模型进行调节效应分析并使用相应的效应量指标。在介绍新方法和新效应量后,总结出一套调节效应的分析流程,通过一个例子来演示如何用Mplus软件进行两水平回归模型的调节效应及其效应量分析。最后讨论了两水平回归模型的调节效应分析的发展,包括稳健的调节效应分析、潜变量的调节效应分析、有调节的中介效应分析和有中介的调节效应分析等。     

无均值结构的潜变量交互效应模型的标准化估计

潜变量交互效应建模研究近年来有两项重要进展, 一是提出了潜变量交互效应模型的标准化估计及其计算公式; 二是发现无均值结构模型可以取代传统的有均值结构模型, 建模大为简化。但标准化估计是在传统的有均值结构模型中建立的, 在简化的模型中同样适用吗？本文在无均值结构模型的框架内, 给出了潜变量交互效应模型的标准化形式、计算公式和建模步骤, 并通过模拟研究比较了极大似然和广义最小二乘两种估计方法、配对乘积指标和全部乘积指标两种指标类型, 结果表明, 在计算交互效应的标准化估计时, 应当使用配对乘积指标建模, 并且首选极大似然估计。     

Isotonic ordinal probabilistic models (ISOP)

The concept of an ordinal instrumental probabilistic comparison is introduced. It relies on an ordinal scale given a priori and on the concept of stochastic dominance. It is used to define a weakly independently ordered system, or isotonic ordinal probabilistic (ISOP) model, which allows the construction of separate sample-free ordinal scales on a set of subjects and a set of items. The ISOP-model is a common nonparametric theoretical structure for unidimensional models for quantitative, ordinal and dichotomous variables.Fundamental theorems on dichotomous and polytomous weakly independently ordered systems are derived. It is shown that the raw score system has the same formal properties as the latent system, and therefore the latter can be tested at the observed empirical level.I wish to thank 3 reviewers and 2 editors who contributed a lot to the readability and precision of the article.     

Ordinal consistency and ordinal true scores

This paper argues that test data are ordinal, that latent trait scores are only determined ordinally, and that test data are used largely for ordinal purposes. Therefore it is desirable to develop a test theory based only on ordinal assumptions. A set of ordinal assumptions is presented, including an ordinal version of local independence. From these assumptions it is first shown that the gamma-correlation between two tests is the product of their gamma-correlations with the true latent order. The theory is generalized to allow for heterogeneous tests by defining a weighted average local independence. The tau-correlations between total score and the latent order can be found in both homogeneous and heterogeneous cases, and a system of differential item weighting to maximize the tau-correlation between weighted items and the latent order is provided. Thus a purely ordinal test theory seems possible.Part of this work was done while the author was a Visiting Fellow at Macquarrie University. The paper has benefitted from discussions with Professors Thomas J. Reynolds and Roderick P. McDonald and from the comments of several anonymous reviewers.     

Not all effect sizes are the same: Comments on Holden (2008)

Despite the common belief that response bias is a significant moderator of psychological tests in field settings, these biases have been notoriously difficult to identify. Holden (2008) has recently presented evidence suggesting this paradox may at least in part be explained by problems inherent to the use of moderated regression with self-report indicators of response bias. His article offers an innovative proposal for understanding a central issue in applied test use. However, the conclusions drawn about both moderated regression and the general validity of response bias indicators are open to alternative explanations. It would be premature to assume these factors are important contributors to the ephemeral character of response bias effects.     

Multilevel Reliability Measures of Latent Scores Within an Item Response Theory Framework

Abstract

This paper evaluated multilevel reliability measures in two-level nested designs (e.g., students nested within teachers) within an item response theory framework. A simulation study was implemented to investigate the behavior of the multilevel reliability measures and the uncertainty associated with the measures in various multilevel designs regarding the number of clusters, cluster sizes, and intraclass correlations (ICCs), and in different test lengths, for two parameterizations of multilevel item response models with separate item discriminations or the same item discrimination over levels. Marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)-multiple imputation and Bayesian analysis were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rates of Monte Carlo (MC) confidence or credible intervals. Considering the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the intervals, the results lead us to generally recommend MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with separate item discriminations over levels, marginally acceptable accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were found in a limited condition, 200 clusters, 30 cluster size, .2 ICC, and 40 items, in MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with the same item discrimination over levels, the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were acceptable in all multilevel designs we considered with 40 items under MMLE-multiple imputation. We discuss these findings and provide guidelines for reporting multilevel reliability measures.     

The three latent classes of adolescent delinquency and the risk factors for membership in each class

This study used latent class analysis to examine subpopulation membership based on self-reports of delinquent behaviors obtained from Australian youth. Three discrete identifiable classes were derived based on 51 indicators of physical violence, property damage, minor infractions, drug use, and social delinquency. One class of youth engaged in primarily rule breaking and norm violations including underage alcohol use, typical of this age period. A second class was more actively delinquent emphasizing drug use, trespassing, and various forms of disobedience. A third class of highly delinquent youth differed from their counterparts by endorsing drug use, thievery that involved stealing money, goods, and cars, property damage, gambling, precocious sexual experiences, involvement with pornographic materials, and fighting. Multinomial logistic regression predicting class membership indicated highly delinquent youth were more likely to be older males, use venting coping strategies, and be fun or novelty seeking compared with rule breakers. Findings are discussed in terms of refining current taxonomic arguments regarding the structure of delinquency and implications for prevention of early-stage antisocial behavior.     

The effect of food toppings on calorie estimation and consumption

In this research we examine the effect of adding a food topping to the base food on consumers' calorie estimation and consumption of the augmented food (base food plus topping). We show that consumers underestimate the calorie content of augmented food with an unhealthy base, especially when the topping is healthy. However, consumers are less likely to underestimate the calorie content of augmented food with a healthy base, regardless of whether the topping is healthy or unhealthy. Further, we show that adding a healthy topping to an unhealthy base makes consumers not only underestimate the calorie content but also eat more of the augmented food.     

Factors contributing to hit-and-run crashes in China

Hit-and-run accidents, or those where the perpetrator leaves the crash scene without reporting the event, are a serious concern because they can delay the rescue of victims, thereby increasing the fatality rate and severity of injuries. However, only a few studies exist on the factors that influence hit-and-run behavior, particularly in developing countries. Using data collected from Guangdong Province in China, this study applies a logistic regression model to analyze factors associated with hit-and-run behavior in five categories: crash attributes and human, vehicle, road, and environmental factors. This study finds that the probability of hit-and-run behavior increases with accidents that involve pedestrians, occur in dark driving conditions, and are caused by drivers who are male, middle-aged, and without a valid driver’s license, extensive driving experience, or automobile insurance. Therefore, we recommend closer supervision and better public education for different groups of people about traffic laws and regulations.