Psychoanalysis and Diplomacy: Part III. Potentials for and Obstacles Against Collaboration

Given the pervasive influence of Realpolitik over government and the study of international relations, and some inherent difficulties within the field of psychoanalysis, it is not surprising that political science and psychoanalysis remain distant cousins. Part III in this series on diplomacy and psychoanalysis discusses obstacles against collaboration between these two disciplines, but also points to areas where collaboration is possible and can be useful.     

Isotonic ordinal probabilistic models (ISOP)

The concept of an ordinal instrumental probabilistic comparison is introduced. It relies on an ordinal scale given a priori and on the concept of stochastic dominance. It is used to define a weakly independently ordered system, or isotonic ordinal probabilistic (ISOP) model, which allows the construction of separate sample-free ordinal scales on a set of subjects and a set of items. The ISOP-model is a common nonparametric theoretical structure for unidimensional models for quantitative, ordinal and dichotomous variables.Fundamental theorems on dichotomous and polytomous weakly independently ordered systems are derived. It is shown that the raw score system has the same formal properties as the latent system, and therefore the latter can be tested at the observed empirical level.I wish to thank 3 reviewers and 2 editors who contributed a lot to the readability and precision of the article.     

Canonical analysis of two convex polyhedral cones and applications

Canonical analysis of two convex polyhedral cones consists in looking for two vectors (one in each cone) whose square cosine is a maximum. This paper presents new results about the properties of the optimal solution to this problem, and also discusses in detail the convergence of an alternating least squares algorithm. The set of scalings of an ordinal variable is a convex polyhedral cone, which thus plays an important role in optimal scaling methods for the analysis of ordinal data. Monotone analysis of variance, and correspondence analysis subject to an ordinal constraint on one of the factors are both canonical analyses of a convex polyhedral cone and a subspace. Optimal multiple regression of a dependent ordinal variable on a set of independent ordinal variables is a canonical analysis of two convex polyhedral cones as long as the signs of the regression coefficients are given. We discuss these three situations and illustrate them by examples.     

Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition

It is commonly held that people believe themselves to be better than others, especially for outcomes under their control. However, such overconfidence is not universal. This paper presents evidence showing that people believe that they are below average on skill-based tasks that are difficult. A simple Bayesian explanation can account for these effects and for their robustness: On skill-based tasks, people generally have better information about themselves than about others, so their beliefs about others’ performances tend to be more regressive (thus less extreme) than their beliefs about their own performances. This explanation is tested in two experiments that examine these effects’ robustness to experience, feedback, and market forces. The discussion explores the implications for strategic planning in general and entrepreneurial entry in particular.     

The stability of depressive symptoms in college students: An empirical demonstration of regression to the mean

In a recent paper, Vredenburg, Flett, and Krames (1993) hypothesized that the apparent instability of depressive symptom scores in college students may be due, in part, to the phenomenon known as statistical regression to the mean. This statistical principle was demonstrated in the current study. A sample of 183 university students completed the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) at two timepoints separated by a 3-month interval. Consistent with past results, analyses revealed substantial changes in symptom scores over time with decrements being evident among many subjects with elevated symptom scores at Time 1. Examination of the amount of change over time in BDI scores indicated a pattern of findings that approximated the regression to the mean phenomenon. Statistical tests confirmed that regression to the mean accounted for a significant amount of the change in symptom scores over time. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the nature of depressive symptoms in students and the inappropriateness of assigning subjects to depressed or nondepressed groups on the basis of elevated scores on a self-report measure.     

广西肝恶性肿瘤患者住院费用的研究

为探讨肝恶性肿瘤患者住院总费用情况,对广西2010年～2012年间肝恶性肿瘤患者的住院费用资料进行统计学分析,比较肝恶性肿瘤患者3年住院总费用的变化情况,并采用多重线性回归分析方法,分析肝恶性肿瘤患者住院总费用的影响因素.结果显示广西肝恶性肿瘤住院患者逐年增多,住院费用逐年增高;住院天数、有无手术、有无合并症、有无院内感染、性别、年龄6个因素是住院总费用的影响因素.我们应加大预防控制肝恶性肿瘤的力度,建立单病种诊疗规范和费用控制标准,推进临床路径管理,以减轻患者的经济负担.     

Estimation of the Nonlinear Random Coefficient Model when Some Random Effects Are Separable

A method is presented for marginal maximum likelihood estimation of the nonlinear random coefficient model when the response function has some linear parameters. This is done by writing the marginal distribution of the repeated measures as a conditional distribution of the response given the nonlinear random effects. The resulting distribution then requires an integral equation that is of dimension equal to the number of nonlinear terms. For nonlinear functions that have linear coefficients, the improvement in computational speed and accuracy using the new algorithm can be dramatic. An illustration of the method with repeated measures data from a learning experiment is presented.     

分时距认知特点的研究

本研究探讨了分时距估计的认知特点,检验了SS模型、PT模型和CS模型的预测效度,结果表明：分时距估计主要是在信息提取阶段采用分段推算策略对时间信息进行重建的过程,变化／分割和注意分配对分时距估计有显著影响;SS模型的预测效度最低,PT、CS模型的预测效度较高。     

卡车驾驶员速度估计研究

用速度知觉测试仪,对251名男性卡车驾驶员在四种实验条件下的速度估计准确性进行了测量。结果发现：安全组卡车驾驶员的速度估计准确性优于事故组卡车驾驶员,两者在低速条件下差异不显著,高速条件下差异显著;事故组卡车驾驶员的高估次数高于安全组卡车驾驶员,低速条件下两者不显著.高速条件下差异显著;事故多发组与安全组卡车驾驶员的速度估计准确性在高速及低速长距离条件下差异显著;速度及距离对速度估计准确性有显著影响,且两者之间存在显著的交互作用;年龄对速度估计准确性无显著影响。     

Computational exploration of metaphor comprehension processes using a semantic space model

Recent metaphor research has revealed that metaphor comprehension involves both categorization and comparison processes. This finding has triggered the following central question: Which property determines the choice between these two processes for metaphor comprehension? Three competing views have been proposed to answer this question: the conventionality view ( Bowdle & Gentner, 2005 ), aptness view ( Glucksberg & Haught, 2006b ), and interpretive diversity view ( Utsumi, 2007 ); these views, respectively, argue that vehicle conventionality, metaphor aptness, and interpretive diversity determine the choice between the categorization and comparison processes. This article attempts to answer the question regarding which views are plausible by using cognitive modeling and computer simulation based on a semantic space model. In the simulation experiment, categorization and comparison processes are modeled in a semantic space constructed by latent semantic analysis. These two models receive word vectors for the constituent words of a metaphor and compute a vector for the metaphorical meaning. The resulting vectors can be evaluated according to the degree to which they mimic the human interpretation of the same metaphor; the maximum likelihood estimation determines which of the two models better explains the human interpretation. The result of the model selection is then predicted by three metaphor properties (i.e., vehicle conventionality, aptness, and interpretive diversity) to test the three views. The simulation experiment for Japanese metaphors demonstrates that both interpretive diversity and vehicle conventionality affect the choice between the two processes. On the other hand, it is found that metaphor aptness does not affect this choice. This result can be treated as computational evidence supporting the interpretive diversity and conventionality views.