Are absolute frequencies,relative frequencies,or both effective in reducing cognitive biases?

Biases in probabilistic reasoning are affected by alterations in the presentation of judgment tasks. In our experiments, students made likelihood judgments that an event was produced by various causes. These judgments were made in terms of probability, relative frequency or absolute frequency on a full or a pruned list of causes. When they had little personal experience of the event (causes of death), the pruning bias was smaller with relative frequencies than with absolute frequencies or probabilities. When they had more personal experience of the event (missing a lecture), the bias was less with both types of frequency than with probability but still lowest with relative frequency. We suggest that likelihood information is usually stored as relative frequencies when it has been obtained from public sources but that it is based on event counts when it is derived from personal experience. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

3~5岁儿童理解和使用空间表征的特点

以96名3~5儿童为被试,采用自编的儿童空间表征实验任务,在语言表征、模型表征和图画表征三种空间表征形式上,考察了儿童理解和使用空间表征的发展特点。结果表明:(1)总体上,3~5岁儿童理解空间表征的发展水平均显著高于使用空间表征的发展水平。(2)3~5岁儿童理解和使用空间表征的发展表现出显著的年龄效应。(3)从不同的空间表证形式来看,3岁儿童理解语言表征的能力与理解模型表征的能力之间差异显著,4岁儿童使用语言表征的能力与使用模型表征的能力之间的差异、使用语言表征的能力与使用图画表征的能力之间的差异、以及使用模型表征的能力与使用图画表征的能力之间的差异都显著,其余形式的空间表征理解之间的差异或空间表征使用之间的差异在各年龄段中均不显著。     

Fourier‐Motzkin elimination method in MOLP problems

This paper introduces a method for finding the non‐dominated set in criterion space of an MOLP problem based on Fourier–Motzkin Elimination. The method incorporates a procedure that eliminates decision variables from constraints and transforms a feasible region from decision space to criterion space. While avoiding characterization of the efficient set in decision space, it finds the non‐dominated set in criterion space. After the decision maker's most preferred criterion vector has been identified, the corresponding efficient solutions can be found by backward substitution. The method was implemented in MATLAB using a tabular form and computational experiments were conducted. The results indicate that although the method performs well for relatively small problems, it can be computationally intensive for larger problems. Nonetheless, the method is intuitively appealing and it provides useful insights into the geometry and theory of MOLP. As such it makes it a valuable educational tool for students of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attribute‐based differentiation of alternatives

An intermediate step is introduced to the dialogue decision process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When criteria weights are unknown, the best alternative from the modified set may be superior to the best alternative from the original set. Furthermore, analysis of the resulting alternatives may yield a better mapping of the value response surface for the action space, in the sense that this mapping leads to eventual construction of a higher value alternative. Results are reported for a consulting engagement incorporating the proposed step. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大学生外语焦虑、自我效能感与外语成绩关系的研究

以315名大学生为研究对象,采用t检验、相关分析、方差分析和回归分析技术探讨了不同成绩水平、不同性别、不同专业学生的外语焦虑、自我效能感和外语成绩的差异及三者之间的关系。结果表明:(1)外语成绩及格组学生的外语焦虑水平显著低于不及格组学生,自我效能感显著高于不及格组学生;女大学生的外语成绩、自我效能感及能力因子和挫折因子上的自我效能感显著高于男大学生,男女大学生的外语焦虑水平无显著性差异;文科大学生的外语焦虑水平和外语成绩显著高于理科大学生,文、理科学生的自我效能感无显著性差异;(2)外语焦虑与外语成绩呈显著负相关,与自我效能感呈显著负相关,自我效能感与外语成绩呈显著正相关,性别、专业、外语焦虑、自我效能感、效能感的能力和挫折两个因子是外语成绩的显著预测变量。     

Self‐reported discipline among Swedish parents of preschool children

Swedish mothers and fathers from 200 volunteer families (target child aged 1–6 years) were asked what they would do in five situations which called for either control or discipline. The Parental Discipline Interview (PDI) was scored for 18 possible responses. Both mothers and fathers reported a variety of discipline strategies. Firm Command and Redefine were reported most often, while Threat and Physical Punishment were reported least often. Analysis of Variance (ANOVAs) showed higher frequencies of Reasoning and Ignore and lower frequencies of Redefine for mothers than for fathers. Regression analyses showed that mothers that had less traditional attitudes and young children predicted the preference of Physical Restraint, as well as Distraction. Ignore was predicted for older, less active children of less educated mothers. Fathers having younger, less active daughters predicted the preference of Redefine. Even if parents do not have Physical Punishment at their disposal following the ‘aga‐law’, the results showed that they have not abdicated their parental authority. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A response to the proposed ELCA inter‐religious policy statement

In this solicited essay, an undergraduate Interfaith Scholar and Interfaith Studies minor at Concordia College responds to the ELCA proposed interreligious policy statement. In this essay, I will contend that the policy statement beautifully articulates our Lutheran commitment to accompany our neighbors by envisioning a world in which God celebrates all forms of diversity. Moreover, by framing our vocation in the context of relational theology, the document lays the groundwork for mutual understanding that prioritizes service to the neighbor over proselytization.     

Breaking face processing tasks apart to improve their predictive value in the real world: A comment on Ramon,Bobak, and White (2019)

In this commentary, I will expand on three aspects suggested by Ramon et al. (2019, British Journal of Psychology, 110, 461) to improve the predictive value of laboratory‐based tasks in real‐world applications. There are potential benefits that may arise from three interrelated considerations, particularly in terms of predicting agents’ susceptibility to errors in operational settings. The first is a proposal to conduct a detailed examination of performance on face processing tests rather than only analysing overall accuracy scores. The second involves considering non‐face‐related cognitive and meta‐cognitive sub‐processes involved in face processing tasks. The third highlights the contribution of superior recognisers in creating challenging tests that simulate difficult real‐world situations.     

De‐legitimizing hostility and strengthening joint agency: Lutheran inter‐religious commitment today

The ELCA Declaration of Inter‐Religious Commitment is an important instrument for mainstreaming inter‐religious engagement in local communities and diverse ministries. This article assesses this recent policy document and highlights how the text engages Lutheran theological reasoning on “the neighbor” for a profound understanding of God's grace, theologically de‐legitimizes hostility and exclusion, and strengthens joint agency. This resonates with current concerns in the global Lutheran communion and the wider ecumenical movement.