Data Smoothing: Prediction of Human Behavior, Detection of Behavioral Patterns, and Monitoring Treatment Effectiveness in Single-Subject Behavioral Studies

Data-smoothing can be particularly useful in predicting human behavior, detecting behavioral patterns, and monitoring treatment effectiveness in highly variable single-subject behavioral experiments that cannot be determined by only visual inspection of their graphs. Using an example from the applied behavior analytic literature, the use of moving-average and exponential data-smoothing aided the detection of the unique behavioral patterns of a child with autism across different treatments. Furthermore, the utility of the data-smoothing procedures to monitor and control the effectiveness of an intervention is discussed. The ease of their calculations suggest use of data-smoothing by behavior analysts whenever the effects of particular interventions are questionable.     

A marginalization model for the multidimensional unfolding analysis of ranking data

A marginalization model for the multidimensional unfolding analysis of ranking data is presented. A subject samples one of a number of random points that are multivariate normally distributed. The subject perceives the distances from the point to all the stimulus points fixed in the same multidimensional space. The distances are error perturbed in this perception process. He/she produces a ranking dependent on these error-perturbed distances. The marginal probability of a ranking is obtained according to this ranking model and by integrating out the subject (ideal point) parameters, assuming the above distribution. One advantage of the model is that the individual differences are captured using the posterior probabilities of subject points. Three sets of ranking data are analyzed by the model.     

Guidelines for training in the ethical conduct of scientific research

Historically, scientists in training have learned the rules of ethical conduct by the example of their advisors and other senior scientists and by practice. This paper is intended to serve as a guide for the beginning scientist to some fundamental principles of scientific research ethics. The paper focuses less on issues of outright dishonesty or fraud, and more on the positive aspects of ethical scientific behavior; in other words, what a scientist should do to maintain a high level of ethical conduct in research. There are a number of fairly specific rules, guidelines, or commonly accepted operating principles that have evolved for the ethical conduct of science. In order to discuss this code of ethics, this paper is divided into sections dealing with specific areas of scientific ethics. These areas are: data collection and storage, ownership of data, confidentiality, communication, authorship, collaboration, the peer review system, and rules of dealing with ethical complaints. Illustrative case histories are presented to provide examples of the type of ethical dispute or problem being discussed. If scientific trainees learn the accepted rules of behavior that govern the conduct of science, ethical problems that arise out of ignorance, misunderstanding, or poor communication can be avoided.     

Tests of symmetry in three-way contingency tables

Three-dimensional contingency tables are analyzed, with one variable (e.g., sex) as a factor, and with a natural relation between the other variables (e.g. left and right eye vision). Models of special interest, like symmetry and proportional symmetry between the related variables, and homogeneity across the factor levels, are investigated. Maximum likelihood estimators of parameters and partitions of chi-square goodness-of-fit statistics are explicitly presented; the independence of certain models is noted, and an example is discussed.     

Seat belt usage: A potential target for applied behavior analysis

Results of 1,579 observations of cars entering or exiting campus parking lots showed direct relationships between seat belt wearing and the intrusiveness of the engineering device designed to induce belt usage, and between device intrusiveness and system defeat. For example, all drivers with working interlocks or unlimited buzzer reminders were wearing a seat belt; but 62% of the systems with interlocks or unlimited buzzers had been defeated, and only 15.9% of the drivers in these cars were wearing a seat belt. The normative data indicated marked ineffectiveness of the negative reinforcement contingencies implied by current seat belt inducement systems; but suggested that unlimited buzzer systems would be the optimal system currently available if contingencies were developed to discourage the disconnection and circumvention of such systems. Positive reinforcement strategies are discussed that would be quite feasible for large-scale promotion of seat belt usage.     

A bayesian approach to confirmatory factor analysis

Confirmatory factor analysis is considered from a Bayesian viewpoint, in which prior information on parameter is incorporated in the analysis. An iterative algorithm is developed to obtain the Bayes estimates. A numerical example based on longitudinal data is presented. A simulation study is designed to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood method.Computer facilities were provided by the Computer Services Center, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of the joint covariance matrix for sections of tests given to distinct samples with application to test equating

Consider an old testX consisting ofs sections and two new testsY andZ similar toX consisting ofp andq sections respectively. All subjects are given testX plus two variable sections from either testY orZ. Different pairings of variable sections are given to each subsample of subjects. We present a method of estimating the covariance matrix of the combined test (X ₁, ...,X _s ,Y ₁, ...,Y _p ,Z ₁, ...,Z _q ) and describe an application of these estimation techniques to linear, observed-score, test equating.The author is indebted to Paul W. Holland and Donald B. Rubin for their encouragement and many helpful comments and suggestions that contributed significantly to the development of this paper.This research was supported by the Program Statistics Research Project of the ETS Research Statistics Group.     

A more powerful method for testing for agreement between a judge and a known standard

We assume that a judge's task is to categorize each ofN subjects into one ofr known classes. The design of primary interest is employed if the judge is presented withs groups, each containingr subjects, such that each group of sizer consists of exactly one subject of each of ther types. The probability distribution for the total number of correct choices is developed and used to test the null hypothesis that the judge is guessing in favor of the alternative that he or she is operating at a better than chance level. The power of the procedure is shown to be superior to two other procedures which appear in the literature.The authors are grateful for the suggestions of the referees and for computer funding provided by the Northeast Regional Data Center at the University of Florida.     

A stochastic multidimensional scaling procedure for the empirical determination of convex indifference curves for preference/choice analysis

The vast majority of existing multidimensional scaling (MDS) procedures devised for the analysis of paired comparison preference/choice judgments are typically based on either scalar product (i.e., vector) or unfolding (i.e., ideal-point) models. Such methods tend to ignore many of the essential components of microeconomic theory including convex indifference curves, constrained utility maximization, demand functions, et cetera. This paper presents a new stochastic MDS procedure called MICROSCALE that attempts to operationalize many of these traditional microeconomic concepts. First, we briefly review several existing MDS models that operate on paired comparisons data, noting the particular nature of the utility functions implied by each class of models. These utility assumptions are then directly contrasted to those of microeconomic theory. The new maximum likelihood based procedure, MICROSCALE, is presented, as well as the technical details of the estimation procedure. The results of a Monte Carlo analysis investigating the performance of the algorithm as a number of model, data, and error factors are experimentally manipulated are provided. Finally, an illustration in consumer psychology concerning a convenience sample of thirty consumers providing paired comparisons judgments for some fourteen brands of over-the-counter analgesics is discussed.     

Restricted multidimensional scaling models for asymmetric proximities

Restricted multidimensional scaling models [Bentler & Weeks, 1978] allowing constraints on parameters, are extended to the case of asymmetric data. Separate functions are used to model the symmetric and antisymmetric parts of the data. The approach is also extended to the case in which data are presumed to be linearly related to squared distances. Examples of several models are provided, using journal citation data. Possible extensions of the models are considered. This research was supported in part by USPHS Grant 0A01070, P. M. Bentler, principal investigator, and NIMH Grant MH-24819, E. J. Anthony and J. Worland, principal investigators. The authors wish to thank E. W. Holman and several anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions concerning this research.