Evaluating dialectical structures with Bayesian methods

This paper shows how complex argumentation, analyzed as dialectical structures, can be evaluated within a Bayesian framework by interpreting them as coherence constraints on subjective degrees of belief. A dialectical structure is a set of arguments (premiss-conclusion structure) among which support- and attack-relations hold. This approach addresses the observation that some theses in a debate can be better justified than others and thus fixes a shortcoming of a theory of defeasible reasoning which applies the bivalence principle to argument evaluations by assigning them the status of being either defeated or undefeated. Evaluation procedures which are based on the principle of bivalence can, however, be embedded as a special case within the Bayesian framework. The approach developed in this paper rests on the assumptions that arguments can be reconstructed as deductively valid and that complex argumentation can be reconstructed such that premisses of arguments with equivalent conclusions are pairwise independent.     

儿童在错误信念任务上的知识偏差

采用3种任务考查儿童在错误信念（FB）推理中是否存在知识偏差。被试为60名3—5岁幼儿,结果表明,对于3岁及4岁儿童来说,FB任务是存在知识偏差的。知识偏差的大小与年龄呈负相关关系,3岁与4岁、4岁与5岁儿童的知识偏差的大小均有显著差异。     

文本加工中情境模型建构的五个维度

情境模型理论是当代西方文本阅读加工的一个重要理论。该文通过详细介绍情境模型建构的空间、时间、因果、主人公、意图五大维度,以助于对情境模型理论整体理解。通过总结可知,目前国内外关于情境模型建构中的空间、因果和主人公三个维度的研究成果较多,研究范式也较为成熟,时间和意图维度则研究成果较少     

不同难度阅读材料对阅读知觉广度影响的眼动研究

采用经典的呈现随眼动变化技术,以Eyelink II眼动仪为工具,考察材料难度和窗口大小对中文句子阅读的影响.实验设计为2(材料难度:难,易)× 5(窗口大小:1个字,3个字,5个字,7个字和整行)被试内实验设计,被试为15名在校大学生.研究结果表明:(1)阅读容易材料时的知觉广度为5个字.(2)阅读困难材料时知觉广度为3-5个字.     

聋童与正常儿童对多种信念的认知

选取了122名3～12岁聋童,并分别用65名3～5岁的正常儿童作对照,开展了2个实验系列,探讨了儿童的正确信念、一级错误信念及二级错误信念认知的发展特点.结果如下: (1)聋童及正常儿童信念认知的发展过程中,无论是关于正确信念,还是关于一级错误信念,都是先发展自我信念认知,再发展他人信念认知;(2)关于正确信念、一级错误信念和二级错误信念认知的发展,聋童都比正常儿童滞后,但两者的发展趋势一致; (3)手语聋童在信念认知上略好于口语聋童; (4)父母为聋人或父母会手语的聋童,以及兄弟姐妹会手语的聋童,其信念认知水平要比其他聋童好.     

Effects of in-group and out-group support on behavioral consistency: The majority and minority in the context of an intergroup belief cross

Abstract:   The present study investigated the social determinants required to stimulate consistency in minority members' attitudes and behavior. The experiment was designed to examine the consistency of individuals in the context of an intergroup belief cross wherein the majority belief (or minority) in a categorical in-group shifted to the minority (or majority) in the out-group. The results indicated that the members of a majority within an in-group consistently preserved their behavioral intentions and beliefs even though they were positioned as a minority within an out-group. That is, the minority members in the whole intergroup context maintained consistency diachronically as a result of support from the majority of their in-group. The theoretical implications on the consistency of minority members, such as whistle-blowers in companies, are discussed.     

Accuracy of the DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency Measure for Predicting Third Grade Reading Comprehension Outcomes

We evaluated the validity of DIBELS (Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills) ORF (Oral Reading Fluency) for predicting performance on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT-SSS) and Stanford Achievement Test (SAT-10) reading comprehension measures. The usefulness of previously established ORF risk-level cutoffs [Good, R.H., Simmons, D.C., and Kame’enui, E.J. (2001). The importance and decision-making utility of a continuum of fluency-based indicators of foundational reading skills for third-grade high-stakes outcomes. Scientific Studies of Reading, 5, 257–288.] for third grade students were evaluated on calibration (n_S1 = 16,539) and cross-validation (n_S2 = 16,908) samples representative of Florida's Reading First population. The strongest correlations were the third (February/March) administration of ORF with both FCAT-SSS and SAT-10 (r_S = .70–.71), when the three tests were administered concurrently. Recalibrated ORF risk-level cut scores derived from ROC (receiver-operating characteristic) curve analyses produced more accurate identification of true positives than previously established benchmarks. The recalibrated risk-level cut scores predict performance on the FCAT-SSS equally well for students from different socio-economic, language, and race/ethnicity categories.     

Iterated Belief Change and the Recovery Axiom

The axiom of recovery, while capturing a central intuition regarding belief change, has been the source of much controversy. We argue briefly against putative counterexamples to the axiom—while agreeing that some of their insight deserves to be preserved—and present additional recovery-like axioms in a framework that uses epistemic states, which encode preferences, as the object of revisions. This makes iterated revision possible and renders explicit the connection between iterated belief change and the axiom of recovery. We provide a representation theorem that connects the semantic conditions we impose on iterated revision and our additional syntactical properties. We show interesting similarities between our framework and that of Darwiche–Pearl (Artificial Intelligence 89:1–29 1997). In particular, we show that intuitions underlying the controversial (C2) postulate are captured by the recovery axiom and our recovery-like postulates (the latter can be seen as weakenings of (C2)). We present postulates for contraction, in the same spirit as the Darwiche–Pearl postulates for revision, and provide a theorem that connects our syntactic postulates with a set of semantic conditions. Lastly, we show a connection between the contraction postulates and a generalisation of the recovery axiom. Portions of this paper were originally presented at ECAI 2002.     

Associations between mothers' sensitivity to their infants' internal states and children's later understanding of mind and emotion

This study investigated associations between mother–infant interactions and children's subsequent understanding of mind and emotion. Mothers' tendency to comment on their infants' internal world and their general sensitivity to their infants' internal states were measured through coded play interactions at 10 months. The latter measurement included ratings on four aspects of maternal behaviour: mindful facilitation, joint attention commenting, pacing, and affect catching. In contrast to mothers' internal state language, these behaviours did not tap mothers' explicit linguistic representation of their infants' mental states. At 54 months, children's understanding of mind and emotion was measured through a range of false‐belief tasks and an emotion‐understanding task. Multivariate analysis revealed direct positive links between mothers' sensitivity to their infants' internal states and children's later understanding of mind. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中文阅读过程中的副中央凹预视效应

副中央凹预视效应指当读者正注视某个词(即位于中央凹的词n)时, 可以获得词n右侧词(即位于副中央凹词n+1或词n+2)的部分信息。在阅读过程中读者能否从副中央凹预视到信息, 会直接影响他们的阅读效率。因此, 探讨阅读过程中的副中央凹预视效应产生的条件、影响因素及机制, 成为阅读心理学需要解决的基本问题之一。本文系统总结了中外文阅读过程中副中央凹预视效应的研究进展, 包括副中央凹预视效应的研究范式, 中外文阅读过程中副中央凹预视的信息类型、不同类型信息预视加工的时间进程, 以及空间上获得预视信息的范围。最后提出中文阅读过程中副中央凹预视研究需要解决的几个关键问题。