Paired comparison,triple comparison,and ranking experiments as generalized linear models,and their implementation on GLIM

A wide variety of paired comparison, triple comparison, and ranking experiments may be viewed as generalized linear models. These include paired comparison models based on both the Bradley-Terry and Thurstone-Mosteller approaches, as well as extensions of these models that allow for ties, order of presentation effects, and the presence of covariates. Moreover, the triple comparison model of Pendergrass and Bradley, as well as models for complete rankings of more than three items, can also be represented as generalized linear models. All such models can be easily fit by maximum likelihood, using the widely available GLIM computer package. Additionally, GLIM enables the computation of likelihood ratio statistics for testing many hypotheses of interest. Examples are presented that cover a variety of cases, along with their implementation on GLIM.     

A multistage ranking model

In this paper, we propose a (n–1)² parameter, multistage ranking model, which represents a generalization of Luce's model. We propose then×n item-rank relative frequency matrix (p-matrix) as a device for summarizing a set of rankings. As an alternative to the traditional maximum likelihood estimation, for the proposed model we suggest a method which estimates the parameters from thep-matrix. An illustrative numerical example is given. The proposed model and its differences from Luce's model are briefly discussed. We also show some specialp-matrix patterns possessed by the Thurstonian models and distance-based models.     

Bayesian analysis of order-statistics models for ranking data

In this paper, a class of probability models for ranking data, the order-statistics models, is investigated. We extend the usual normal order-statistics model into one where the underlying random variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampling technique are used for parameter estimation. In addition, methods to assess the adequacy of model fit are introduced. Robustness of the model is studied by considering a multivariate-t distribution. The proposed method is applied to analyze the presidential election data of the American Psychological Association (APA).The author is grateful to K. Lam, K.F. Lam, the Editor, an associate editor, and three reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions. This research was substantially supported by the CRCG grant 335/017/0015 of the University of Hong Kong and a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. HKU 7169/98H). Upon completion of this paper, I became aware that similar work had been done independently by K.G. Yao and U. Böckenholt (1999).     

Conflicts of interest in science and medicine: the physician's perspective

The various statements and declarations of the World Medical Association that address conflicts of interest on the part of physicians as (1) researchers, and (2) practitioners, are examined, with particular reference to the October 2000 revision of the Declaration of Helsinki. Recent contributions to the literature, notably on conflicts of interest in medical research, are noted. Finally, key provisions of the American Medical Association’s Code of Medical Ethics (2000–2001 Edition) that address the various forms of conflict of interest that can arise in the practice of medicine are outlined. An earlier version of this paper was presented at an International Conference on “Conflict of Interest and its Significance in Science and Medicine” held in Warsaw, Poland on 5–6 April, 2002. The World Medical Association (WMA) is a global federation of National Medical Associations representing the millions of physicians worldwide. Acting on behalf of patients and physicians, the WMA endeavours to achieve the highest possible standards of medical care, ethics, education and health-related human rights for all people.     

Barbour's Fourfold Way: Problems with His Taxonomy of Science-religion Relationships

In this paper several problems are raised concerning Ian Barbour's four ways of interrelating science and religion—Conflict, Independence, Dialogue, and Integration—as put forward in such publications as his highly influential Religion in an Age of Science (1990) and widely adopted by other writers in this field. The authors argue that this taxonomy is not very useful or analytically helpful, especially to historians seeking to understand past engagements between science and religion.     

Rule following and rule use in the balance-scale task

Quinlan et al. [Quinlan, p., van der Mass, H., Jansen, B., Booij, O., & Rendell, M. (this issue). Re-thinking stages of cognitive development: An appraisal of connectionist models of the balance scale task. Cognition, doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2006.02.004] use Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to criticize a connectionist model of development on the balance-scale task, arguing that LCA shows that this model fails to capture a torque rule and exhibits rules that children do not. In this rejoinder we focus on the latter problem, noting the tendency of LCA to find small, unreliable, and difficult-to-interpret classes. This tendency is documented in network and synthetic simulations and in psychological research, and statistical reasons for finding such unreliable classes are discussed. We recommend that LCA should be used with care, and argue that its small and unreliable classes should be discounted. Further, we note that a preoccupation with diagnosing rules ignores important phenomena that rules do not account for. Finally, we conjecture that simple extensions of the network model should be able to achieve torque-rule performance.     

Comparing score tests and other local dependence diagnostics for the graded response model

Score tests for identifying locally dependent item pairs have been proposed for binary item response models. In this article, both the bifactor and the threshold shift score tests are generalized to the graded response model. For the bifactor test, the generalization is straightforward; it adds one secondary dimension associated only with one pair of items. For the threshold shift test, however, multiple generalizations are possible: in particular, conditional, uniform, and linear shift tests are discussed in this article. Simulation studies show that all of the score tests have accurate Type I error rates given large enough samples, although their small‐sample behaviour is not as good as that of Pearson's Χ² and M₂ as proposed in other studies for the purpose of local dependence (LD) detection. All score tests have the highest power to detect the LD which is consistent with their parametric form, and in this case they are uniformly more powerful than Χ² and M₂; even wrongly specified score tests are more powerful than Χ² and M₂ in most conditions. An example using empirical data is provided for illustration.     

Independence and dependence in human causal reasoning

Causal graphical models (CGMs) are a popular formalism used to model human causal reasoning and learning. The key property of CGMs is the causal Markov condition, which stipulates patterns of independence and dependence among causally related variables. Five experiments found that while adult’s causal inferences exhibited aspects of veridical causal reasoning, they also exhibited a small but tenacious tendency to violate the Markov condition. They also failed to exhibit robust discounting in which the presence of one cause as an explanation of an effect makes the presence of another less likely. Instead, subjects often reasoned “associatively,” that is, assumed that the presence of one variable implied the presence of other, causally related variables, even those that were (according to the Markov condition) conditionally independent. This tendency was unaffected by manipulations (e.g., response deadlines) known to influence fast and intuitive reasoning processes, suggesting that an associative response to a causal reasoning question is sometimes the product of careful and deliberate thinking. That about 60% of the erroneous associative inferences were made by about a quarter of the subjects suggests the presence of substantial individual differences in this tendency. There was also evidence that inferences were influenced by subjects’ assumptions about factors that disable causal relations and their use of a conjunctive reasoning strategy. Theories that strive to provide high fidelity accounts of human causal reasoning will need to relax the independence constraints imposed by CGMs.     

题组反应理论及其在中学英语考试中的应用研究

题组作为众多测验中的一种常见题型,由于项目间存在一定程度的依赖性而违背了局部独立性假设,若用项目反应模型进行参数估计将会出现较大的偏差.题组反应理论将被试与题组的交互作用纳入到模型中,解决了项目间相依性的问题.笔者对题组反应理论的发展、基本原理及其相关研究进行了综述,并将其应用在中学英语考试中.与项目反应理论相对比,结果发现：（1）题组反应模型与项目反应模型在各参数估计值的相关系数较强,尤其是能力参数和难度参数;（2）在置信区间宽度的比较上,题组反应模型在各个参数上均窄于项目反应模型,即题组反应模型的估计精度优于项目反应模型.