Dissimilarity cumulation theory in arc-connected spaces

This paper continues the development of the Dissimilarity Cumulation theory and its main psychological application, Universal Fechnerian Scaling [Dzhafarov, E.N and Colonius, H. (2007). Dissimilarity Cumulation theory and subjective metrics. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 51, 290-304]. In arc-connected spaces the notion of a chain length (the sum of the dissimilarities between the chain’s successive elements) can be used to define the notion of a path length, as the limit inferior of the lengths of chains converging to the path in some well-defined sense. The class of converging chains is broader than that of converging inscribed chains. Most of the fundamental results of the metric-based path length theory (additivity, lower semicontinuity, etc.) turn out to hold in the general dissimilarity-based path length theory. This shows that the triangle inequality and symmetry are not essential for these results, provided one goes beyond the traditional scheme of approximating paths by inscribed chains. We introduce the notion of a space with intermediate points which generalizes (and specializes to when the dissimilarity is a metric) the notion of a convex space in the sense of Menger. A space is with intermediate points if for any distinct there is a different point such that (where D is dissimilarity). In such spaces the metric G induced by D is intrinsic: coincides with the infimum of lengths of all arcs connecting to In Universal Fechnerian Scaling D stands for either of the two canonical psychometric increments and (ψ denoting discrimination probability). The choice between the two makes no difference for the notions of arc-connectedness, convergence of chains and paths, intermediate points, and other notions of the Dissimilarity Cumulation theory.     

Kaufmann on the Probabilities of Conditionals

Kaufmann has recently argued that the thesis according to which the probability of an indicative conditional equals the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent under certain specifiable circumstances deviates from intuition. He presents a method for calculating the probability of a conditional that does seem to give the intuitively correct result under those circumstances. However, the present paper shows that Kaufmann’s method is inconsistent in that it may lead one to assign different probabilities to a single conditional at the same time.     

意见收敛定理与休谟问题

意见收敛定理是主观主义概率论的一条重要定理,它表明随着证据的增加,验前概率的主观性将被验后概率的客观性所代替。意见收敛定理被看作主观概率的动态合理性原则,因而被用来解决休谟问题,即归纳合理性问题。然而,哈金有说服力地表明,意见收敛定理证明的是条件概率Pr（h／e）的收敛,而不是验后概率Pre（h）的收敛。主观主义概率论暗中接受的一个等式是：Pre（h）=Pr（h／e）,通常称之为“条件化规则”。这样,归纳法的合理性问题变成条件化规则的合理性问题。为此,本文提出一个新的合理性原则,即“最少初始概率原则”,将它同“局部合理性”观念结合起来便可为条件化规则的合理性加以辩护。     

Logics with the Qualitative Probability Operator

The paper presents several strongly complete axiomatizationsof qualitative probability within the framework of probabilisticlogic. We show that in the proposed semantics qualitative probabilitiesare characterized by probability functions, so they also arecomparative probabilities.     

Probability and Evolution. Why the Probability Argument of Creationists is Wrong

Summary  Evolution is a time process. It proceeds in steps of definite length. The probability of each step is relatively high, so self organization of complex systems will be possible in finite time. Prerequisite for such a process is a selection rule, which certainly exists in evolution. Therefore, it would be wrong to calculate the probability of the formation of a complex system solely on the basis of the number of its components and as a momentary event.     

The probability of causal conditionals

Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q/p). We report three experiments on causal indicative conditionals and related counterfactuals that support this hypothesis. We measured the probabilities people assigned to truth table cases, P(pq), P(p notq), P( notpq) and P( notp notq). From these ratings, we computed three independent predictors, P(p), P(q/p) and P(q/ notp), that we then entered into a regression equation with judged P(if p then q) as the dependent variable. In line with the conditional probability hypothesis, P(q/p) was by far the strongest predictor in our experiments. This result is inconsistent with the claim that causal conditionals are the material conditionals of elementary logic. Instead, it supports the Ramsey test hypothesis, implying that common processes underlie the use of conditionals in reasoning and judgments of conditional probability in decision making.     

检验导出的等值新方法及其表现探讨

该文受Berkson将检验方法用于估计未知参数的启发,根据三个拟合优度统计量导出三种新的求取等值系数的方法,即:平方根等值方法(Square Root criterion,SQRTcrit)、对称相对熵等值方法(Symmetric Relative Entropy criterion,SREcrit)、加权等值方法(Weighted criterion,Wcrit),即Haebara准则的加权式。虽然在被检验的两个分布列很接近时,这三个多项拟合优度检验方法是渐近等价的,然而用它们求取等值系数时,Monte-Carlo模拟结果表明这三种新等值方法的行为表现存在差异。它们之间的差异和随机误差的大小有密切关系,即与项目参数估计的精度有关;还与等值系数A的范围有关。     

How probability theory explains the conjunction fallacy

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge a conjunctive statement B‐and‐A to be more probable than a constituent B, in contrast to the law of probability that P(B ∧ A) cannot exceed P(B) or P(A). Researchers see this fallacy as demonstrating that people do not follow probability theory when judging conjunctive probability. This paper shows that the conjunction fallacy can be explained by the standard probability theory equation for conjunction if we assume random variation in the constituent probabilities used in that equation. The mathematical structure of this equation is such that random variation will be most likely to produce the fallacy when one constituent has high probability and the other low, when there is positive conditional support between the constituents, when there are two rather than three constituents, and when people rank probabilities rather than give numerical estimates. The conjunction fallacy has been found to occur most frequently in exactly these situations. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于非逻辑机制的条件推理模式：P—Q映射模型及其实证检验

研究结合数学分析方法,提出了基于非逻辑机制的条件推理模型：P-Q映射模型。并根据这个模型,对人们在不同命题类型奈件下的推理行为进行了预测。预测结果显示,当推理前提为LH和HL型命题时,基于P-Q映射模型的预测结果与基于条件概率模型的预测结果完全一致。但当推理前提为LL和HH型命题时,两种模型给出的预测结果存在差异。实验结果表明,当前提命题为LL和HH型命题时,被试的条件推理行为与P-Q映射模型的预言完全一致。     

不同概率表征的贝叶斯推理试题形式结构的同质性研究

研究从先验概率、概率表征、推理任务等方面探讨了经典贝叶斯推理研究中存在的不足,试图在＂知识和试题双重模型＂框架下,探索现实和标准贝叶斯试题的形式结构的同质性,结果表明：1）自然频次表征比百分比表征的贝叶斯推算题正确率高,这是因为试题的形式结构不同,与概率表征无关;2）贝叶斯判断题与贝叶斯推算题的试题形式结构存在显著差异;3）贝叶斯推算题中,概率词表征与其它两种表征的试题形式结构存在显著差异,其实质是贝叶斯判断。