Processing pronunciation variants: the role of probabilistic knowledge about lexical form and segmental co-occurrence

Two experiments investigated the contribution of lexical knowledge to processing nasal flap variants (e.g. “mental” produced as “mennle”). High and low variant production frequency nasal flap words and nonword counterparts were presented in a “t” detection task. More “t” detections were found in high than low variant frequency nasal flap words; no difference was found in control nasal flap nonwords but control nonwords with a nasal had more “t” detections than nonwords without a nasal. The findings suggest that access to lexical knowledge of an alternative NT pronunciation is modulated by variant frequency of the reduced form and pre-lexical phonotactic knowledge.     

Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates: The Probability Theory Plus Noise Account

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge the conjunctive probability P(A ∧ B) to be greater than a constituent probability P(A), contrary to the norms of probability theory. This fallacy is a reliable, consistent and systematic part of people's probability judgements, attested in many studies over at least 40 years. For some events, these fallacies occur very frequently in people's judgements (at rates of 80% or more), while for other events, the fallacies are very rare (occurring at rates of 10% or less). This wide range of fallacy rates presents a challenge for current theories of the conjunction fallacy. We show how this wide range of observed fallacy rates can be explained by a simple model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise in the reasoning process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interval estimation of gamma for an<Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis>×<Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis> table

When the underlying responses are on an ordinal scale, gamma is one of the most frequently used indices to measure the strength of association between two ordered variables. However, except for a brief mention on the use of the traditional interval estimator based on Wald's statistic, discussion of interval estimation of the gamma is limited. Because it is well known that an interval estimator using Wald's statistic is generally not likely to perform well especially when the sample size is small, the goal of this paper is to find ways to improve the finite-sample performance of this estimator. This paper develops five asymptotic interval estimators of the gamma by employing various methods that are commonly used to improve the normal approximation of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Using Monte Carlo simulation, this paper notes that the coverage probability of the interval estimator using Wald's statistic can be much less than the desired confidence level, especially when the underlying gamma is large. Further, except for the extreme case, in which the underlying gamma is large and the sample size is small, the interval estimator using a logarithmic transformation together with a monotonic function proposed here not only performs well with respect to the coverage probability, but is also more efficient than all the other estimators considered here. Finally, this paper notes that applying an ad hoc adjustment procedure—whenever any observed frequency equals 0, we add 0.5 to all cells in calculation of the cell proportions—can substantially improve the traditional interval estimator. This paper includes two examples to illustrate the practical use of interval estimators considered here.The authors wish to thank the Associate Editor and the two referees for many valuable comments and suggestions to improve the contents and clarity of this paper. The authors also want to thank Dr. C. D. Lin for his graphic assistance.     

Note on the rationality of rule-based versus exemplar-based processing in human judgment

This paper reports a study of the relationship between rule- versus exemplar-based processing and criteria for rationality of judgment. Participants made probability judgments in a classification task devised by S. W. Allen and L. R. Brooks (1991). In the exemplar condition, the miscalibration was accounted for by stochastic components of the judgment with a format-dependence effect, implying simultaneous over- and underconfidence depending on the response scale. In the rule condition, there was an overconfidence bias not accounted for by the stochastic components of judgment. In both conditions the participants were additive on average and reasonably transitive, but the larger stochastic component in the exemplar condition produced somewhat larger absolute deviations. The results suggest that exemplar processes are unbiased but more perturbed by stochastic components, while rule-based processes may be more prone to bias.     

Reasoning about complex probabilistic concepts in childhood

The competencies of children, particularly their understanding of the more complex probabilistic concepts, have not been thoroughly investigated. In the present study participants were required to choose the more likely of two events, a single event, and a joint event (conjunctive or disjunctive). It was predicted that the operation of the representativeness heuristic would result in erroneous judgements when children compared an unlikely component event with a likely-unlikely conjunction (the conjunction fallacy) and when a likely component event was compared to a likely-unlikely disjunction. The results supported the first prediction with both older children aged between 9 and 10 years and younger children aged between 4 and 5 committing the conjunction fallacy. However, the second prediction was not confirmed. It is proposed that the basis of representativeness judgements may differ between the conjunctive and disjunctive cases with absolute frequency information possibly playing a differential role.     

Use of the high-probability instructional sequence and escape extinction in a child with food refusal

We used the high-probability (high-p) instructional sequence with and without escape extinction in the treatment of food refusal. Acceptance increased and refusal decreased only with the introduction of escape extinction. These results raise important questions about the high-p sequence in the treatment of food refusal.     

Resistance to change of forgetting functions and response rates

This experiment examined the effects of reinforcement probability on resistance to change of remembering and response rate. Pigeons responded on a two-component multiple schedule in which completion of a variable-interval 20-s schedule produced delayed matching-to-sample trials in both components. Each session included four delays (0.1 s, 2 s, 4 s, and 8 s) between sample termination and presentation of comparison stimuli in both components. The two components differed in the probability of reinforcement arranged for correct matches (i.e., rich, p = .9; lean, p = .1). Response rates during the variable-interval portion of the procedure were higher in the rich component during baseline and more resistant to the disruptive effects of intercomponent food and extinction. Forgetting functions were constructed by examining matching accuracy as a function of delay duration. Baseline accuracy was higher in the rich component than in the lean component as measured by differences in the gamma-intercept of the forgetting functions (i.e., initial discrimination), rather than from differences in the slope of the forgetting function (i.e., rate of forgetting). Intercomponent food increased the rate of forgetting relatively more in the lean component than in the rich component, but initial discrimination was not systematically affected. Extinction reduced initial discrimination relatively more in the lean component than in the rich component, but did not systematically affect rate of forgetting. These results are consistent with our previous data suggesting that, as for response rate, accuracy and resistance to change of discriminating are positively related to rate of reinforcement. These data also suggest that the disruptability of remembering depends on the conditions of reinforcement, but the way in which remembering is disrupted depends on the nature of the disruptor.     

Effects of high-probability requests on the latency to initiate academic tasks

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a high-probability request sequence on the latency to and duration of compliance to a request for completion of an independent math assignment. The participant was an elementary-school student with learning disabilities who exhibited noncompliance during math instruction. The results showed that high-probability requests were effective in reducing the latency to compliance but only minimally affected duration of engagement.     

Basic and applied research on extinction bursts

Discontinuation of the contingency between a response and its reinforcer sometimes produces a temporary increase in the response before its rate decreases, a phenomenon called the extinction burst. Prior clinical and basic studies on the prevalence of the extinction burst provide highly disparate estimates. Existing theories on the extinction burst fail to account for the dynamic nature of this phenomenon, and the basic behavioral processes that control response bursting remain poorly understood. In this paper, we first review the basic and applied literature on the extinction burst. We then describe a recent refinement of the concatenated matching law called the temporally weighted matching law that appears to resolve the above-mentioned issues regarding the extinction burst. We present illustrative translational data based conceptually on the model. Finally, we discuss specific recommendations derived from the temporally weighted matching law regarding procedures clinicians could implement to potentially mitigate or prevent extinction bursts.