Spatial-temporal analysis of pedestrian injury severity with geographically and temporally weighted regression model in Hong Kong

This study intended to (1) investigate the pedestrian injury severity involved in traffic crashes; and (2) address the spatial and temporal heterogeneity simultaneously. To achieve the objectives, geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was proposed to deal with both spatial and temporal heterogeneity simultaneously. The pedestrian crash data of Hong Kong metropolitan area from 2008 to 2012 were collected, involving 1652 pedestrian-related injury samples. By comparing GTWR model and standard geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and temporally weighted regression (TWR) model, the proposed GTWR model showed potential benefits in modeling both spatial and temporal non-stationarity simultaneously in terms of goodness-of-fit and F statistics. Results revealed that number of vehicles, number of pedestrian-related casualties, speed limit, vehicle movement and injury location have significant influence on pedestrian injury severity in different areas. The conclusions are reached that GRWR model can address the relationship between pedestrian injury severities and influencing factors, as well as accommodating spatial and temporal heterogeneity simultaneously. The findings provide useful insights for practitioners and policy makers to improve pedestrian safety.     

The Δ–∑ hypothesis: How contrast and reinforcement rate combine to generate suboptimal choice

When given a choice between two alternatives, each offering food after the same delay with different but signaled probabilities, pigeons often prefer the low probability alternative. This preference is surprising because pigeons fail to maximize the rate of food intake; they exhibit a suboptimal preference. We advance a new explanation, the Δ–∑ hypothesis, in which the difference in probability of reinforcement within terminal links (Δ) and the overall reinforcement probability rate of each alternative (∑) are the key variables responsible for such suboptimal preference. We tested the Δ–∑ hypothesis in two experiments. In Experiment 1, we manipulated the Δs while maintaining constant all other parameters of the task, in particular the ∑s. We predicted a preference for the alternative with the larger Δ. In Experiment 2, we examined the effect of the overall reinforcement probabilities, the ∑s, while maintaining constant all other parameters of the task, in particular the Δs. We predicted a preference for the larger ∑. The results of both experiments support the Δ–∑ hypothesis.     

Are choices based on conditional or conjunctive probabilities in a sequential risk-taking task?

In this study, we examined participants' choice behavior in a sequential risk-taking task. We were especially interested in the extent to which participants focus on the immediate next choice or consider the entire choice sequence. To do so, we inspected whether decisions were either based on conditional probabilities (e.g., being successful on the immediate next trial) or on conjunctive probabilities (of being successful several times in a row). The results of five experiments with a simplified nine-card Columbia Card Task and a CPT-model analysis show that participants' choice behavior can be described best by a mixture of the two probability types. Specifically, for their first choice, the participants relied on conditional probabilities, whereas subsequent choices were based on conjunctive probabilities. This strategy occurred across different start conditions in which more or less cards were already presented face up. Consequently, the proportion of risky choices was substantially higher when participants started from a state with some cards facing up, compared with when they arrived at that state starting from the very beginning. The results, alternative accounts, and implications are discussed.     

“词语自由联想”视域下医护人员形象调查——公众与医护人员的认知态度比较

言语行为可以反映认知态度,利用心理学的“自由联想法”对公众与医护人员进行针对医护人员形象的调查,以获得他们心目中描述医护人员形象的词语.按照他们头脑中出现的顺序进行加权统计;计算积极、中性和消极词语的比例.调查发现,公众对医护人员形象的认知态度存在矛盾;同时医护人员对自身职业评价较低;二者通过联想获得贬义词分值较高,原因是医护人员普遍被认为劳动强度大、职业安全感小等.运用社会认知心理学的平衡理论进行分析以期获得提升认知态度,改善医患关系的新途径.     

Linda versus World Cup: Conjunctive Probabilities in Three-event Fictional and Real-life Predictions

Conjunction errors in probability judgments have been explained in terms of representatives, non-normative combination procedures, and linguistic, conversational, or conceptual misunderstandings. In two studies, a three-event variant of the classical Linda scenario (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983) was contrasted with estimates of Norway’s chances in three coming World Cup soccer matches. Conjunction errors occurred even in the latter, real-life prediction task, but much less frequently than in the fictional Linda case. Magnitude of the conjunction effect was found to be dependent upon type of constituent (fictional versus dispositional), unequal versus equal probabilities of constituent events, prediction of positive versus negative outcomes, and, for real-life predictions only, umber of constitutent events. Fictional probability ratings were close to but lower than representativenss ratings, giving evidence for a representativeness and adjustment-for-uncertainty strategy, whereas probabilities of real-life events were given a causal model interpretation.     

Riskier for me or for others? The role of domain and probability in self-other differences,in risky decision-making

Abstract

In social and economic interactions, people often decide differently for others, as against for themselves, under situations involving risks. This sometimes leads to conflicts or contradictions. Although previous studies have explored such contradictions, the findings have been inconsistent. To reconcile these inconsistencies, this paper investigates the role played by the different domains and probabilities in the self-other differences under risk. Two groups of participants completed a gambling task combining different domains (gain vs. loss) and probabilities (small vs. large). One group made decisions for others and the other group made decisions for themselves. The results revealed a four pattern of discrepancy: the ones who made decisions for others were less risk-seeking than those who made decisions for themselves over the small probability gains. This was reversed over the large probability gains. Conversely, the participants who made decisions for others were more risk-seeking than those who made decisions for themselves over the small probability losses. The results were reversed over the large probability losses. These results reconcile the contradictory findings of the previous studies and suggest the significant role played by contextual factors in such discrepancies.     

Integrating situational probability and kinematic information when anticipating disguised movements

ObjectivesThe current study sought to examine the relative contributions of kinematic and situational probability information to anticipation using different levels of disguised kinematics. More specifically, it was tested whether the weighting of the informational sources (kinematic vs. probabilistic) shifts relative to the certainty of the available kinematic information.Design and MethodHuman-like avatars were generated performing penalty throws and displayed in a virtual reality environment. The ambiguity of the kinematic information available from the avatars was systematically manipulated using linear morphing between genuine and disguised throws. In a perceptual classification task, trained novice observers (N = 23) were asked to classify as quickly and accurately as possible whether observed throws were either genuine or disguised. In addition, information about the performer’s action preferences was also systematically manipulated by explicitly informing participants about the performer’s AP to disguise their throw (25%, 50%, and 75%).ResultsParticipants’ response behavior showed that observers relied more heavily on the probabilistic information when the kinematics were ambiguous. For the AP 25% condition, observers were more likely to report that ambiguous throws were genuine (p < 0.001), whereas they classified the ambiguous throws as being disguised in the AP 75% condition (p < 0.001).ConclusionFindings suggest that observers rely more strongly on non-kinematic (situational probability) information when the reliability of the observable movement kinematics becomes less certain.     

Combined Audience and Video Feedback With Cognitive Review Improves State Anxiety and Self-Perceptions During Speech Tasks in Socially Anxious Individuals

This study investigated the effects of combined audience feedback with video feedback plus cognitive preparation, and cognitive review (enabling deeper processing of feedback) on state anxiety and self-perceptions including perception of performance and perceived probability of negative evaluation in socially anxious individuals during a speech performance. One hundred and forty socially anxious students were randomly assigned to four conditions: Cognitive Preparation + Video Feedback + Audience Feedback + Cognitive Review (CP + VF + AF + CR), Cognitive Preparation + Video Feedback + Cognitive Review (CP + VF + CR), Cognitive Preparation + Video Feedback only (CP + VF), and Control. They were asked to deliver two impromptu speeches that were evaluated by confederates. Participants’ levels of anxiety and self-perceptions pertaining to the speech task were assessed before and after feedback, and after the second speech. Compared to participants in the other conditions, participants in the CP + VF + AF + CR condition reported a significant decrease in their state anxiety and perceived probability of negative evaluation scores, and a significant increase in their positive perception of speech performance from before to after the feedback. These effects generalized to the second speech. Our results suggest that adding audience feedback to video feedback plus cognitive preparation and cognitive review may improve the effects of existing video feedback procedures in reducing anxiety symptoms and distorted self-representations in socially anxious individuals.     

The role of working memory capacity in multiple-cue probability learning

Multiple-cue probability learning (MCPL) involves learning to predict a criterion when outcome feedback is provided for multiple cues. A great deal of research suggests that working memory capacity (WMC) is involved in a wide range of tasks that draw on higher level cognitive processes. In three experiments, we examined the role of WMC in MCPL by introducing measures of working memory capacity, as well as other task manipulations. While individual differences in WMC positively predicted performance in some kinds of multiple-cue tasks, performance on other tasks was entirely unrelated to these differences. Performance on tasks that contained negative cues was correlated with working memory capacity, as well as measures of explicit knowledge obtained in the learning process. When the relevant cues predicted positively, however, WMC became irrelevant. The results are discussed in terms of controlled and automatic processes in learning and judgement.     

To what extent do we process the nondominant object in a morphed figure? Evidence from a picture–word interference task

Since the 1970s, the Heuristics and Biases Program in Cognitive Psychology has shown that people do not reason correctly about conditional probability problems. In the 1990s, however, evolutionary psychologists discovered that if the same problems are presented in a different way, people's performance greatly improves. Two explanations have been offered to account for this facilitation effect: the natural frequency hypothesis and the nested-set hypothesis. The empirical evidence on this debate is mixed. We review the literature pointing out some methodological issues that we take into account in our own present experiments. We interpret our results as suggesting that when the mentioned methodological problems are tackled, the evidence seems to favour the natural frequency hypothesis and to go against the nested-set hypothesis.