考试评分缺失数据的概化理论分析

考试评分缺失数据较为常见,如何有效利用现有数据进行统计分析是个关键性问题。在考试评分中,题目与评分者对试卷得分的影响不容忽视。根据概化理论原理,按考试评分规则推导出含有缺失数据双侧面交叉设计（p×i×r）方差分量估计公式,用Matlab7.0软件模拟多组缺失数据,验证此公式的有效性。结果发现：（1）推导出的公式较为可靠,估计缺失数据的方差分量偏差相对较小,即便数据缺失率达到50％以上,公式仍能对方差分量进行较为准确地估计;（2）题目数量对概化理论缺失数据方差分量的估计影响最大,评分者次之,当题目和评价者数量分别为6和5时,公式能够趋于稳定地估计;（3）学生数量对各方差分量的估计影响较小,无论是小规模考试还是大规模考试,概化理论估计缺失数据的多个方差分量结果相差不大。     

Choice Environment, Market Complexity, and Consumer Behavior: A Theoretical and Empirical Approach for Incorporating Decision Complexity into Models of Consumer Choice

Most empirical models of choice in economics and consumer research assume that the decision maker assesses all alternatives and information in a perfect information-processing sense. The complexity of the choice environment, the ability of the individual to make complex decisions, and the effect of choice context on the decision strategy are generally not considered in statistical model development. One of the reasons for this omission is that theoretical literature on choice complexity and imperfect ability to choose that has developed in psychology and behavioral decision theory (BDT) literatures has not been translated into empirical econometric analysis. Second, the data used in economics and consumer research studies tend to be somewhat different from the data structures used in psychology and BDT literatures. In this paper we outline a theoretical model that simultaneously considers task complexity, effort applied by the consumer, ability to choose, and choice. We then construct a measure of task complexity and incorporate this in an analysis of a number of data series based on the random utility framework. We also examine the performance of our measure of task complexity in a composite data set that allows for increased variability in factors affecting decision context. Our approach provides a mechanism to link research in BDT and econometric modeling of consumer choice. Our findings suggest that task complexity does affect inferences about choice model parameters and that context effects, such as complexity, have a systematic impact on the parameters of econometric models of choice. The modeling approach provides a mechanism for inclusion of results from psychology and BDT in traditional economic models of consumer choice.     

Methodological Challenges in Causal Research on Racial and Ethnic Patterns of Cognitive Trajectories: Measurement, Selection, and Bias

Research focused on understanding how and why cognitive trajectories differ across racial and ethnic groups can be compromised by several possible methodological challenges. These difficulties are especially relevant in research on racial and ethnic disparities and neuropsychological outcomes because of the particular influence of selection and measurement in these contexts. In this article, we review the counterfactual framework for thinking about causal effects versus statistical associations. We emphasize that causal inferences are key to predicting the likely consequences of possible interventions, for example in clinical settings. We summarize a number of common biases that can obscure causal relationships, including confounding, measurement ceilings/floors, baseline adjustment bias, practice or retest effects, differential measurement error, conditioning on common effects in direct and indirect effects decompositions, and differential survival. For each, we describe how to recognize when such biases may be relevant and some possible analytic or design approaches to remediating these biases.     

Generating variable and random schedules of reinforcement using Microsoft Excel macros

Variable reinforcement schedules are used to arrange the availability of reinforcement following varying response ratios or intervals of time. Random reinforcement schedules are subtypes of variable reinforcement schedules that can be used to arrange the availability of reinforcement at a constant probability across number of responses or time. Generating schedule values for variable and random reinforcement schedules can be difficult. The present article describes the steps necessary to write macros in Microsoft Excel that will generate variable-ratio, variable-interval, variable-time, random-ratio, random-interval, and random-time reinforcement schedule values.     

Random Item IRT Models

It is common practice in IRT to consider items as fixed and persons as random. Both, continuous and categorical person parameters are most often random variables, whereas for items only continuous parameters are used and they are commonly of the fixed type, although exceptions occur. It is shown in the present article that random item parameters make sense theoretically, and that in practice the random item approach is promising to handle several issues, such as the measurement of persons, the explanation of item difficulties, and trouble shooting with respect to DIF. In correspondence with these issues, three parts are included. All three rely on the Rasch model as the simplest model to study, and the same data set is used for all applications. First, it is shown that the Rasch model with fixed persons and random items is an interesting measurement model, both, in theory, and for its goodness of fit. Second, the linear logistic test model with an error term is introduced, so that the explanation of the item difficulties based on the item properties does not need to be perfect. Finally, two more models are presented: the random item profile model (RIP) and the random item mixture model (RIM). In the RIP, DIF is not considered a discrete phenomenon, and when a robust regression approach based on the RIP difficulties is applied, quite good DIF identification results are obtained. In the RIM, no prior anchor sets are defined, but instead a latent DIF class of items is used, so that posterior anchoring is realized (anchoring based on the item mixture). It is shown that both approaches are promising for the identification of DIF.     

热手谬误？赌徒谬误？ ——随机序列知觉中近因效应的格式塔现象研究

通过两个实验来探讨随机序列中的近因效应。在实验1中,采用传统实验范式,让被试进行一系列的抛掷硬币结果的猜测并给予反馈,结果发现：（1）在最近连续几次硬币呈现的结果不同时,人们通常把各个结果分别作为独立的单元来看待,大部分情况下做出随机性的预期;（2）在最近连续几次硬币呈现的结果相同时,人们通常把连续几次相同的结果作为一个认知单元来看待,在最近猜测对错两种情况下分别出现了截然相反的两种近因效应。当最近1次猜对时,对下一结果的预期出现正近因效应即热手谬误,但是最近几次连续猜对时谬误减少乃至消失;当最近1次猜错时,对下一结果的预期出现负近因效应即赌徒谬误,并且最近几次连续猜错时负近因效应并未受到太大影响。实验2在实验1范式的基础上,把硬币抛掷的结果人为分组,发现被试对每一组的第一个结果做出预期时,实验1中的各种效应均消失,该现象支持关于随机序列知觉的“格式塔理论”。     

Compositionality,Relevance, and Peirce’s Logic of Existential Graphs

Charles S. Peirce’s pragmatist theory of logic teaches us to take the context of utterances as an indispensable logical notion without which there is no meaning. This is not a spat against compositionality per se , since it is possible to posit extra arguments to the meaning function that composes complex meaning. However, that method would be inappropriate for a realistic notion of the meaning of assertions. To accomplish a realistic notion of meaning (as opposed e.g. to algebraic meaning), Sperber and Wilson’s Relevance Theory (RT) may be applied in the spirit of Peirce’s Pragmatic Maxim (PM): the weighing of information depends on (i) the practical consequences of accommodating the chosen piece of information introduced in communication, and (ii) what will ensue in actually using that piece in further cycles of discourse. Peirce’s unpublished papers suggest a relevance-like approach to meaning. Contextual features influenced his logic of Existential Graphs (EG). Arguments are presented pro and con the view in which EGs endorse non-compositionality of meaning.     

Thurstonian-Based Analyses: Past, Present, and Future Utilities

Current psychometric models of choice behavior are strongly influenced by Thurstone’s (1927, 1931) experimental and statistical work on measuring and scaling preferences. Aided by advances in computational techniques, choice models can now accommodate a wide range of different data types and sources of preference variability among respondents induced by such diverse factors as person-specific choice sets or different functional forms for the underlying utility representations. At the same time, these models are increasingly challenged by behavioral work demonstrating the prevalence of choice behavior that is not consistent with the underlying assumptions of these models. I discuss new modeling avenues that can account for such seemingly inconsistent choice behavior and conclude by emphasizing the interdisciplinary frontiers in the study of choice behavior and the resulting challenges for psychometricians. The author would like to thank R. Darrell Bock whose work inspired many of the ideas presented here. The paper benefitted from helpful comments by Albert Maydeu-Olivares and Rung-Ching Tsai. The reported research was supported in parts by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.     

Strict and random alternation in concurrent variable-interval schedules

Six pigeons responded on pairs of concurrent variable-interval schedules with, in different parts, four different arrangements of alternation between schedules. Following a single switching-key response, alternation was either strict or random, and the alternative presented after a switch (the postswitch alternative) was either signaled by the location of the switching key or unsignaled. Generalized-matching analyses showed little difference in behavior among the different alternation arrangements, except the usual finding of lower sensitivity of response allocation than time allocation was eliminated by arranging random alternation. Patterns of interchangeover times were similar for all arrangements except signaled random alternation. Differences in behavior preceding the different postswitch alternatives were found in the signaled random alternation procedure. Preference was biased towards the color of the signaled postswitch alternative and showed increased sensitivity when the postswitch alternative was to be the one with the higher reinforcer rate. Interchangeover times were substantially shorter when the postswitch alternative was signaled to be different from the current alternative than when it was signaled to be the same. However, when separate reinforcer ratios were calculated for the different postswitch alternatives, those effects were eliminated or greatly reduced. We suggest that, although behavior is indeed influenced by the postswitch alternative, the mechanism is indirect. That is, the distributions of reinforcers between alternatives obtained before each postswitch alternative differ when those alternatives are signaled, and those distributions are discriminated, but the same relations between choice and relative reinforcement hold irrespective of which postswitch alternative is signaled.     

Spatial memory in the grey mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus)

Wild animals face the challenge of locating feeding sites distributed across broad spatial and temporal scales. Spatial memory allows animals to find a goal, such as a productive feeding patch, even when there are no goal-specific sensory cues available. Because there is little experimental information on learning and memory capabilities in free-ranging primates, the aim of this study was to test whether grey mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus), as short-term dietary specialists, rely on spatial memory in relocating productive feeding sites. In addition, we asked what kind of spatial representation might underlie their orientation in their natural environment. Using an experimental approach, we set eight radio-collared grey mouse lemurs a memory task by confronting them with two different spatial patterns of baited and non-baited artificial feeding stations under exclusion of sensory cues. Positional data were recorded by focal animal observations within a grid system of small foot trails. A change in the baiting pattern revealed that grey mouse lemurs primarily used spatial cues to relocate baited feeding stations and that they were able to rapidly learn a new spatial arrangement. Spatially concentrated, non-random movements revealed preliminary evidence for a route-based restriction in mouse lemur space; during a subsequent release experiment, however, we found high travel efficiency in directed movements. We therefore propose that mouse lemur spatial memory is based on some kind of mental representation that is more detailed than a route-based network map. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.