Leader‐driven distortion of probability and payoff information affects choices between risky prospects

Research indicating that decision makers often distort new information to favor nascent preferences has focused primarily on riskless choice rather than risky choice. In addition, the critical assumption that information distortion mediates the link between the initially preferred alternative and the final choice has not been tested in a compelling manner. In an experiment designed to fill these gaps, participants made six choices involving pairs of hypothetical three‐outcome monetary gambles. We manipulated initial preferences by varying the order in which gamble features were presented. Multilevel regressions indicated that participants distorted their evaluations of precise probabilities and payoffs in the direction of their emerging preferences and that they used their biased evaluations to update those preferences. As expected, information distortion mediated the effect of initial preferences on final choices and final preference strength. In a follow‐up experiment, we compared a standard measure of information distortion (based on comparisons to mean ratings in a no‐choice control task) to a more personalized measure (based on participants' own ratings in the control task) and found the mean‐based measure to be superior for the probability and payoff information in question. Other findings in Experiment 2 corroborated the results of Experiment 1. In both studies, the distortion of quantitative inputs in a simple task highlights the non‐normative circularity of the choice process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大连市健康体检成人甲状腺结节流行病学研究

本研究对2009年6月至2010年6月大连市成人健康体检10 357例,进行甲状腺结节的流行病学和危险因素分析。结果表明甲状腺结节的总体患病率为43.79%,男性和女性分别为37.75%和50.77%,女性患病率高于男性,且与年龄有非常明显的关系。另外,甲状腺结节的危险因素为不良的生活和工作方式,尤其是饮食习惯,不同性...     

Children's loneliness, sense of coherence, family climate, and hope: developmental risk and protective factors

The study examined the contributions of individual and familial variables for the prediction of loneliness as a developmental risk and the sense of coherence as a protective factor. The sample consisted of 287 children from grades 5-6. Their loneliness, sense of coherence, hope, effort, and family climate were assessed. Separate hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that family cohesion and children's hope contributed to the explanation of the risk and protective outcomes. Yet, the contribution of the family adaptability was not significant. Cluster analysis of the family climate dimensions (i.e., cohesion and adaptability) was performed to clarify the interactive roles of family adaptability together with family cohesion. The authors identified 4 separate family profiles: Children in the 2 cohesive families' clusters (Cohesive Structured Families and Cohesive Adaptable Families) reported the lowest levels of loneliness and the highest levels of personal strengths. Children within rigid and noncohesive family cluster reported the highest levels of loneliness and the lowest levels of children's sense of coherence. The unique role of the family flexibility within nonsupportive family systems was demonstrated. The results further clarified the unique profiles' characteristics of the different family clusters and their adjustment indexes in terms of loneliness and personal strengths.     

Presidential Leadership Style and the Political Use of Force

A growing body of work seeks to explain the lack of clear evidence for the diversionary use of force by casting doubt on such strategies' attractiveness for policy makers: while domestic political and economic problems may provide incentives for diversion, such strategies involve political and military risks that frequently outweigh these incentives. Such theories correctly identify the objective risks involved in diversion but do not account for variation in leaders' risk‐taking propensities. We develop a “first image” theory of diversion that suggests a key psychological variable (locus of control) shapes leaders' willingness to engage in risky diversionary strategies. A statistical analysis of the American use of force, 1953–2000, finds strong support for this model. We conclude that the lack of clear evidence for diversion in general is a reflection of the contingent nature of the phenomenon and call for greater attention to how agents and structures interact to produce policy behavior.     

决策者角色及相关变量对风险偏好的影响

采用IAT技术测查被试的内隐自尊, 并引入收益和损失两种任务框架, 综合探讨了内隐自尊水平、任务得失框架对自我决策和为他人决策时风险偏好的影响。结果发现：(1)在收益框架下, 被试为他人决策时更冒险, 而在损失框架下, 为自我和他人决策的风险偏好无显著差异; (2)与为自我决策相比, 低内隐自尊者为他人决策时更冒险, 而高内隐自尊者为自我和他人决策的风险偏好无显著差异; (3)内隐自尊水平与任务框架的交互作用及内隐自尊水平、任务框架和决策者角色之间的三级交互作用均不显著。依据相关的理论和发现对这种结果进行了分析和讨论。     

The impact of risk and affect on information search efficiency

We develop and test a theoretical framework of the joint influence of risk and affect on information search efficiency. Our framework proposes that information search is less efficient (i.e., less strategic) when risk is high, versus low. It further proposes that the influences of positive and negative affect on search efficiency are asymmetric and depend on the level of risk. Negative affect improves search efficiency when risk is high, but not when it is low. Positive affect degrades search efficiency when risk is low, but not when it is high. We find results consistent with our framework in two experiments. We discuss implications for affect research and for decision making in risky contexts, including financial statement auditing.     

Emotion,Decision, and Risk: Betting on Gambles versus Betting on People

We examined the effects of two emotions, fear and anger, on risk‐taking behavior in two types of tasks: Those in which uncertainty is generated by a randomizing device (“lottery risk”) and those in which it is generated by the uncertain behavior of another person (“person‐based risk”). Participants first completed a writing task to induce fear or anger. They then made choices either between lotteries (Experiment 1) or between actions in risky two‐person decisions (Experiments 2 and 3). The experiments involved substantial real‐money payoffs. Replicating earlier studies (which used hypothetical rewards), Experiment 1 showed that fearful participants were more risk‐averse than angry participants in lottery‐risk tasks. However—the key result of this study—fearful participants were substantially less risk‐averse than angry participants in a two‐person task involving person‐based risk (Experiment 2). Experiment 3 offered options and payoffs identical to those of Experiment 2 but with lottery‐type risk. Risk‐taking returned to the pattern of Experiment 1. The impact of incidental emotions on risk‐taking appears to be contingent on the class of uncertainty involved. For lottery risk, fear increased the frequency of risk‐averse choices and anger reduced it. The reverse pattern was found when uncertainty in the decision was person‐based. Further, the effect was specifically on differences in willingness to take risks rather than on differences in judgments of how much risk was present. The impact of different emotions on risk‐taking or risk‐avoiding behavior is thus contingent on the type, as well as the degree, of uncertainty the decision maker faces. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Classroom-based cognitive-behavioral intervention to prevent aggression: Efficacy and social validity

Classroom teachers need effective, efficient strategies to prevent and/or ameliorate destructive student behaviors and increase socially appropriate ones. During the past two decades, researchers have found that cognitive strategies can decrease student disruption/aggression and strengthen pro-social behavior. Following preliminary pilot work, we conducted a study to determine whether a classwide, social problem-solving curriculum affected measures of knowledge and behavior for 165 4th and 5th grade students at risk for behavior problems. We found significant positive treatment effects on knowledge of problem-solving concepts and teacher ratings of aggression. Outcomes differed across teachers/classrooms, and there was no evidence that booster lessons affected treatment efficacy. Teacher ratings of social validity were generally positive. We discuss issues about classroom-based prevention research and future research directions.     

Factors influencing young children's risk of unintentional injury: Parenting style and strategies for teaching about home safety

This study examined mothers' teaching about home-safety issues to 24–30 month and 36–42 month old children, explored the relationship of teaching strategies to parenting styles, and assessed how these factors are related to children's risk of unintentional injury. A structured interview assessed home-safety issues relevant to falls, burns, cuts, poisoning, and suffocation/strangulation/choking. Mothers identified safety issues relevant to her child, and indicated the type and extent to which she utilized teaching as a strategy to address each safety issue. Standardized questionnaires provided information about parenting style and children's history of injuries. Results revealed that mothers' endorsements of home-safety issues did not vary with child age, mothers used teaching to manage safety issues for all types of injuries, and type of teaching strategy (explanations, rules, behavior modification) varied with parenting style. Greater use of explaining and less rule usage was linked to permissive parenting; these teaching strategies predicted children's medically-attended injury among highly-permissive mothers. Thus, teaching about safety is a common risk-management strategy mothers use to address hazards in the home. However, the specific type of teaching strategy used varies with parenting style, which has implications for children's risk of injury.     

Development and Validation of an Instrument for the Assessment of Dependency Among Bereaved Persons

Dependency among bereaved individuals has been hypothesized to be an important predictor of severe and enduring grief reactions. However, although there are a number of instruments that assess interpersonal dependency as a personality trait or style, no scales are available to assess bereavement-related dependency. Data from 170 widowed participants in a community-based longitudinal investigation, who had been bereaved for an average of 10.8 months, were used to investigate the reliability and validity of the Bereavement Dependency Scale (BDS), an instrument that was developed to assess dependency on the deceased among bereaved persons. Results indicated that the BDS demonstrated acceptable internal reliability and satisfactory convergent, discriminant, and construct validity. The BDS may be a clinically useful predictor of enduring and complicated grief reactions, major depressive disorder, and suicidality among recently bereaved individuals.