Upward versus Downward Anchoring in Frequency Judgments of Social Facts

Frequency estimation of social facts in two methods of judgment elicitation was investigated. In the “narrow-range” condition, subjects answered questions in the format: “Out of 100 incidents, how many belong to category X?” In the “wide-range” condition, the frequency for the same event was assessed with respect to “Out of 10,000”. Judged frequencies in the wide-range condition were divided by 100, and were compared with the corresponding judgments in the narrow-range condition. Such comparisons were made for low-frequency and high-frequency events. Previous research has shown that, for low-frequency events, judged frequencies are proportionally greater in the narrow-range than in the wide-range condition. These results reflect cognitive processes of implicit anchoring, whereby judged frequencies lie close to small numbers within the response ranges provided. I call this process “downward anchoring,” and predicted that this tendency would be replicated in the present study. Moreover, I predicted that assessments about high-frequency events would evoke similar cognitive processes operating in the opposite direction. By such “upward anchoring,” judged frequencies would lie close to relatively larger numbers within the given response ranges. Consequently, I predicted that judged frequencies for high-frequency events would be proportionally greater in the wide-range condition than in the narrow-range condition. These predictions were confirmed.     

Jung in the academy: devotions and resistances

Jung's position in the contemporary mainstream English-speaking university is problematical indeed. For various historical and ideological reasons, Jung is generally not included in the courses in academic psychology, and in the humanities and social sciences his reception is lukewarm to say the least. He has only a marginal place in religious studies. This notorious academic resistance to Jung is compensated, some would say overcompensated, by student interest and enthusiasm, which sometimes seeks to make a religious dogma out of Jung's psychology. In a sense, cynical resistance to Jung and fanatical devotion to Jung can be seen to generate each other in a sort of binary opposition. This situation is unfortunate because neither extreme presents a fair or balanced view of Jung's thought or of his contribution to intellectual history. These and other problems associated with the teaching of Jung in a university setting are briefly outlined in this paper.     

Reflections on segregating and assessing areas of competence

Various complexities that arise in the application of legal and/or clinical criteria to the actual assessment of competence/capacity are discussed, and a particular way of understanding the nature of such criteria is recommended.     

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34 , 135–148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 , 32–53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.     

《尚书》、《左传》、《国语》的心理学思想研究

《尚书》、《左传》、《国语》是我国最古老的三部文献。我国古代的心理学思想有不少都可以在其中找到源头。本文主要讨论：《尚书》的五行观念、人贵论和人性论思想、认知心理思想、个性心理思想、心理测验思想;《左传》的情感心理思想、病理心理思想、文艺心理思想;《国语》的缺陷心理思想。     

Game logic and its applications I

This paper provides a logic framework for investigations of game theoretical problems. We adopt an infinitary extension of classical predicate logic as the base logic of the framework. The reason for an infinitary extension is to express the common knowledge concept explicitly. Depending upon the choice of axioms on the knowledge operators, there is a hierarchy of logics. The limit case is an infinitary predicate extension of modal propositional logic KD4, and is of special interest in applications. In Part I, we develop the basic framework, and show some applications: an epistemic axiomatization of Nash equilibrium and formal undecidability on the playability of a game. To show the formal undecidability, we use a term existence theorem, which will be proved in Part II.The authors thank Hiroakira Ono for helpful discussions and encouragements from the early stage of this research project, and Philippe Mongin, Mitio Takano and a referee of this journal for comments on earlier versions of this paper. The first and second authors are partially supported, respectively, by Tokyo Center of Economic Research and Grant-in-Aids for Scientific Research 04640215, Ministry of Education, Science and Culture.Presented by H. Ono     

时序信息提取机制的探索

对时序信息加工的经典研究是采用新近性判断范型,结果发现其提取机制是以新近性为基础的逆向串行搜索过程。本研究采用新近性判断范型和早远性判断范型对时序信息的提取机制进行了深入的考察,结果表明：（ｌ）提取时序信息既存在逆向串行搜索,又存在顺向串行搜索;（２）早远性判断和新近性判断任务对不同部分时序信息恢复的效应不同,其中早远性判断易化早远部分,新近性判断易化新近部分──表现为对相应部分辨别力的提高和正确反应潜伏期的缩短;（３）在不同的时序信息提取任务中,被试会根据具体条件进行反转反应。     

Effects of component length and of the transitions among components in multiple schedules

Pigeons received equal variable-interval reinforcement during presentations of two line-orientation stimuli while five other orientations appeared in extinction. Component duration was 30 seconds for all orientations and the sequence was arranged so that each orientation preceded itself and each other orientation equally often. The duration of one component (0°) was shortened to 10 seconds and the other (90°) was lengthened to 50 seconds. All animals showed large increases in response rate in the shortened component and this increase was recoverable after an interpolated condition in which all components were again 30 seconds in duration. This effect was replicated in a second experiment in which component duration was changed from 150 seconds to 50 seconds and 250 seconds. An examination of local contrast effects during the first experiment showed that the shortened component produced local contrast during subsequent presentations of the lengthened component, just as would a component associated with more frequent reinforcement. When the presentation sequence was changed so that the lengthened component was always followed by the shortened component, response rates generally increased during the lengthened component. When the sequence was arranged so that the shortened component always preceded the longer component, response rate decreased in the former. These effects, as well as the increases in response rate following change in component length, seem not to be the product of local contrast effects among components.     

Local contrast and maintained generalization.

Pigeons received variable-interval reinforcement for key pecking during presentations of horizontal and vertical line-orientation stimuli, while pecks during five intermediate orientations were extinguished. Lowest peck rates were observed during presentations of negative stimuli adjacent to the positive orientations while peck rate during 45 degrees (the intermediate negative orientation) was relatively high, i.e., there were negative contrast shoulders. When peck rates were manipulated in the positive orientations, peck rate in neithboring orientations changed in the opposite direction. Contrast shoulders faded after prolonged training. A second type of contrast, local contrast, was correlated with similarity of preceding stimulus and different average peck rates during different stages of the discrimination process. The data suggest that sequential local contrast accompanying the formation of a discrimination contributes to the form of generalization gradients. Blough's model of stimulus control predicts the changes in gradient form described here, but may not accurately depict the underlying process responsible for gradient form.     

Choice as a function of local versus molar reinforcement contingencies.

Rats were trained on a discrete-trial probability learning task. In Experiment 1, the molar reinforcement probabilities for the two response alternatives were equal, and the local contingencies of reinforcement differentially reinforced a win-stay, lose-shift response pattern. The win-stay portion was learned substantially more easily and appeared from the outset of training, suggesting that its occurrence did not depend upon discrimination of the local contingencies but rather only upon simple strengthening effects of individual reinforcements. Control by both types of local contingencies decreased with increases in the intertrial interval, although some control remained with intertrial intervals as long as 30 s. In Experiment 2, the local contingencies always favored win-shift and lose-shift response patterns but were asymmetrical for the two responses, causing the molar reinforcement rates for the two responses to differ. Some learning of the alternation pattern occurred with short intertrial intervals, although win-stay behavior occurred for some subjects. The local reinforcement contingencies were discriminated poorly with longer intertrial intervals. In the absence of control by the local contingencies, choice proportion was determined by the molar contingencies, as indicated by high exponent values for the generalized matching law with long intertrial intervals, and lower values with short intertrial intervals. The results show that when molar contingencies of reinforcement and local contingencies are in opposition, both may have independent roles. Control by molar contingencies cannot generally be explained by local contingencies.