The alternative explanation to the alternative‐outcome effect and the detection of the focal outcome effect

Abstract: Previous studies on subjective probability judgment indicate that pair‐wise comparison between the focal and the strongest alternative outcome plays an important role in probability judgment. This study, however, found that the randomness of alternative outcomes affected probability judgment for focal outcome. In the present study, 182 participants provided probability estimates for winning on hypothetical slot machines where both successes and losses were composed of multiple outcomes. The randomness of both the focal and alternative outcomes were defined by the expression used in Rappoport and Budescu (1997 ). The analysis indicated that the more random the distributions of both focal and alternative outcomes, the higher the estimated probability for focal outcome. Some theoretical suggestions are discussed.     

Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)

People tend to overestimate their comparative likelihood of experiencing a rosy future. The present research suggests that one reason for this error is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event. As a consequence, people tend to think that they are more likely than the average person to experience common events and less likely than the average person to experience rare events. This causes unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events, but unrealistic pessimism in the case of rare desirable events and common undesirable events (Studies 1 and 2). Study 2 further suggests that both egocentrism and focalism underlie these biases. These results suggest that unrealistic optimism is not as ubiquitous as once thought.     

大脑两半球与整体和局部性质的选择性加工

研究大脑两半球在加工整体和局部性质中的优势以及两半球能否同时分别选择两个复合刺激的整体和局部性质。实验中把一个复合字母随机呈现在左视野或右视野,或者把两个复合字母同时分别呈现在左视野和右视野。实验一发现,在单侧呈现条件下,被试检测左右视野的整体或局部靶目标的反应时没有显著差别,但在双侧同时呈现条件下,检测右视野局部靶目标比检测左视野局部靶目标时的反应时短。实验二要求被试检测同时呈现在左右视野的整体或局部靶目标,发现当两个视野的靶目标处于同一水平时(整体或局部)反应时较短,两个视野的靶目标处于不同水平时(一侧处于整体水平而另一侧处于局部水平)反应时较长。这些结果提示,当两个复合刺激同时呈现在左右视野时,大脑左半球在选择性加工局部性质时具有优势;左右两半球更容易选择两个复合刺激同一个水平的性质,分别选择两个复合刺激不同水平的性质比较困难。     

Strong Completeness Theorems for Weak Logics of Common Belief

We show that several logics of common belief and common knowledge are not only complete, but also strongly complete, hence compact. These logics involve a weakened monotonicity axiom, and no other restriction on individual belief. The semantics is of the ordinary fixed-point type.     

The Pursuit of Epistemic Good

Pace Zagzebski, there is no route from the value of knowledge to a non–reliabilist virtue–theoretic epistemology. Her discussion of the value problem is marred by an uncritical and confused employment of the notion of a "state" of knowledge, an uncritical acceptance of a "knowledge–belief" identity thesis, and an incoherent presumption that the widely held thought that knowledge is more valuable than true belief amounts to the view that knowledge is a state of true belief having an intrinsic property which a state of 'mere" true belief lacks. Her arguments against a "machine–product" conception of knowledge are undermined by these flaws, while the alternative "agent–act" model she recommends is unattractive, at odds with the knowledge–belief identity thesis she favours, and no solution to the problem of the value of knowledge she poses. I end with the observation that her version of virtue–theoretic epistemology points in the direction of cognitive decision–theoretic norms, and I briefly discuss the bearing of this fact upon her viewpoint.     

Some Remarks on Ultrafilter and Normality Logics

The paper presents the main ideas of Ultrafilter Logic (UL), as introduced by Veloso and others. A new proposal, Normality Logic (NL), is outlined for expanding the expressive power of UL. The system NL appears to offer a simpler solution to the problem of expressive power than the sorting strategy of Carnielli and Veloso. Interpretations of NL are discussed and an important point of contact to Hansson's notion of non-prioritized belief revision is observed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Personality, values and belief in a just world

This study investigated the relationship between general belief in a just world (BJW) and different values (conformity, security, self-direction) as well as personality traits (Five-Factor-Model of personality) among 104 college students and 108 professionals. Previous findings have shown that BJW is positively related to the value domains conformity and security as well as to extraversion and negatively to neuroticism and openness. In this study, a negative correlation between BJW and openness to new experience was found. Furthermore BJW correlated positively with security and conformity. A cluster analysis on BJW and the value domains revealed three types: value-conscious (high in all values and low in BJW), dependent-just (high in BJW, security and conformity, low in self-direction) and self-directed (only high in self-direction). Value-conscious and dependent-just participants showed higher scores on conscientiousness, whereas self-directed participants scored higher in openness. Further research should take into account the individual function of BJW and values for personality functioning.     

帛、今本《易经》今、古文字考(乾至蹇)--兼及帛、今本卦爻辞异文辨析

本文取帛书《易经》乾至蹇卦的卦爻辞与今本对应的卦爻辞异文进行对比,阐释了二者今、古文的使用情况,并对二者诸多异文的含义进行了分析,得出了一些出人意料的结论。     

记忆提示与表征能力对幼儿心理理论发展的影响

本研究通过经典的错误信念任务及修正后的错误信号和错误照片任务探讨了 3、4、5岁幼儿心理理论的发展以及记忆和表征对这一发展的影响。结果表明 ,3岁儿童还没有具备像 4、5岁儿童那样的心理理论 ;记忆上的帮助并不能提高幼儿在错误信念任务上的成绩 ;所有儿童都能够很好地表征目前及过去的事件