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321.
What Are Degrees of Belief? 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Probabilism is committed to two theses:
Correspondingly, a natural way to argue for probabilism is:
and then
Most of the action in the literature concerns stage ii). Assuming that stage i) has been adequately discharged, various authors
move on to stage ii) with varied and ingenious arguments. But an unsatisfactory response at stage i) clearly undermines any
gains that might be accrued at stage ii) as far as probabilism is concerned: if those things are not degrees of belief, then it is irrelevant to probabilism whether they should be probabilities or not.
In this paper we scrutinize the state of play regarding stage i). We critically examine several of the leading accounts of
degrees of belief: reducing them to corresponding betting behavior (de Finetti); measuring them by that behavior (Jeffrey);
and analyzing them in terms of preferences and their role in decision-making more generally (Ramsey, Lewis, Maher). We argue
that the accounts fail, and so they are unfit to subserve arguments for probabilism. We conclude more positively: ‘degree
of belief’ should be taken as a primitive concept that forms the basis of our best theory of rational belief and decision:
probabilism.
Special Issue Formal Epistemology I. Edited by
Branden Fitelson 相似文献
1) | Opinion comes in degrees—call them degrees of belief, or credences. |
2) | The degrees of belief of a rational agent obey the probability calculus. |
i) | to give an account of what degrees of belief are, |
ii) | to show that those things should be probabilities, on pain of irrationality. |
322.
Cornejol C Simonetti F Aldunate N Ibáñez A López V Melloni L 《Journal of psycholinguistic research》2007,36(6):411-430
We explore the hypothesis that induction of holistic or analytic strategies influences comprehension and processing of highly
contextualized expressions of ordinary language, such as irony. Twenty undergraduate students were asked to categorize as
coherent or incoherent a group of sentences. Each sentence completed a previous story, so that they could be ironical, literal
or nonsensical endings. Participants were asked to evaluate whether each sentence was coherent or incoherent. Half of them
were initially instructed to consider whether the sentences made sense (holistic condition); the other half were instructed
to consider whether the sentences were congruent or incongruent (analytic condition). Behavioral responses and Event Related
Potentials were registered during the experiment. Both behavioral and electrophysiological results allow clearly distinguishing
between the holistic and the analytic strategies. The fact that the same set of stimuli elicits different ERP waveforms, depending
on the strategy with which they are analyzed, suggests that different cognitive processes and different areas of the brain
are operating in each case. 相似文献
323.
324.
325.
主体交互解释是主观解释的发展,它比主观解释具有更为明显的客观性。本文探讨了主体交互概率的测度,主体交互概率形成的条件,主体交互解释与人造客体概率解释一道构造的从主观向完全客观延伸的谱系,以及主体交互解释的恰当性问题。通过探讨这个新近兴起的理论,为人们在确定基本概率时提供了普遍的适用性并使人们避免了主观的随意性。 相似文献
326.
327.
智力测验分数的解释是智力心理学一个重要的研究领域。智力测验分数解释最基本的一个目的就是为了理解。随着智力理论和智力测验的发展,智力测验分数的解释出现了一些新的特点与趋势即注重智力测验分数解释的理论基础,注重智力测验分数解释的效度丰富化与从有用信息的抽取来解释测验分数的趋向。 相似文献
328.
In this paper, I compare the extent of Anglo-American judicial engagement in response to civil disobedience with that of the French judiciary. I begin by examining what the civil disobedient can realistically expect to achieve in a court of law. I shall argue that his priority should be to require the judge, acting as a mouthpiece for the law, to respond to his complaints. To do this, the civil disobedient must be able to deny liability for the offence he has allegedly committed by urging a different interpretation of the law on the basis of an alternative -- but plausible -- reading of constitutional or human rights. If the civil disobedient can do this, he can claim a victory of sorts, even if his claims are ultimately unsuccessful. But legal culture can present a further barrier. Judges have different roles in different jurisdictions and therein lie further difficulties for the French civil disobedient. 相似文献
329.
This paper reports the results of an experiment investigating the effect of induced disgust on interpretational bias using the homophone spelling task. Four groups of participants experienced a disgust, anxiety, happy or neutral mood induction and then completed the homophone spelling task which requires the participant to interpret ambiguous words presented through headphones. Both the disgust and anxiety groups interpreted significantly more threat/neutral homophones as threat than both the happy and neutral groups; the disgust group also interpreted significantly fewer positive/neutral homophones as positive than the happy group. These findings are consistent with the view that induced disgust causes a negative interpretational bias which is similar to that reported for anxiety. The results could not be interpreted in terms of the disgust induction concurrently raising levels of self-reported anxiety, but could be interpreted in terms of disgust maintaining existing levels of anxiety. The effect of disgust was to facilitate negative interpretations rather than emotional interpretations regardless of valence. These findings provide the basis for a causal role for disgust in anxious psychopathology. Because the effect is a non-specific emotion-congruent one, elevated disgust levels will result in a predisposition to interpret information in a threatening way across a broad range of anxious- and threat-relevant domains. 相似文献
330.
Interpretation is the process whereby a hearer reasons to an interpretation of a speaker's discourse. The hearer normally adopts a credulous attitude to the discourse, at least for the purposes of interpreting it. That is to say the hearer tries to accommodate the truth of all the speaker's utterances in deriving an intended model. We present a nonmonotonic logical model of this process which defines unique minimal preferred models and efficiently simulates a kind of closed-world reasoning of particular interest for human cognition. Byrne's "suppression" data (Byrne, 1989) are used to illustrate how variants on this logic can capture and motivate subtly different interpretative stances which different subjects adopt, thus indicating where more fine-grained empirical data are required to understand what subjects are doing in this task. We then show that this logical competence model can be implemented in spreading activation network models. A one pass process interprets the textual input by constructing a network which then computes minimal preferred models for (3-valued) valuations of the set of propositions of the text. The neural implementation distinguishes easy forward reasoning from more complex backward reasoning in a way that may be useful in explaining directionality in human reasoning. 相似文献