The influence of hierarchy on probability judgment

Consider the task of predicting which soccer team will win the next World Cup. The bookmakers may judge Brazil to be the team most likely to win, but also judge it most likely that a European rather than a Latin American team will win. This is an example of a non-aligned hierarchy structure: the most probable event at the subordinate level (Brazil wins) appears to be inconsistent with the most probable event at the superordinate level (a European team wins). In this paper we exploit such structures to investigate how people make predictions based on uncertain hierarchical knowledge. We distinguish between aligned and non-aligned environments, and conjecture that people assume alignment. Participants were exposed to a non-aligned training set in which the most probable superordinate category predicted one outcome, whereas the most probable subordinate category predicted a different outcome. In the test phase participants allowed their initial probability judgments about category membership to shift their final ratings of the probability of the outcome, even though all judgments were made on the basis of the same statistical data. In effect people were primed to focus on the most likely path in an inference tree, and neglect alternative paths. These results highlight the importance of the level at which statistical data are represented, and suggest that when faced with hierarchical inference problems people adopt a simplifying heuristic that assumes alignment.     

A factor simplicity index

We propose an index for assessing the degree of factor simplicity in the context of principal components and exploratory factor analysis. The new index, which is called Loading Simplicity, is based on the idea that the communality of each variable should be related to few components, or factors, so that the loadings in each variable are either zero or as far from zero as possible. This index does not depend on the scale of the factors, and its maximum and minimum are only related to the degree of simplicity in the loading matrix. The aim of the index is to enable the degree of simplicity in loading matrices to be compared.The author would like to thank the review team for their insights and recommendations. This work was supported by a grant SEC2001-3821-C05-C02 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology.     

Given-New Ordering Effects on the Production of Scrambled Sentences in Japanese

Across many languages, speakers tend to produce sentences so that given (previously referred to) arguments are mentioned before new arguments; this is termed given-new ordering. We explored the nature of such given-new effects in Japanese using a procedure following Bock and Irwin (1980). Speakers encoded and then recalled canonical (e.g., okusan-ga otetsudaisan-ni purezento-o okutta, the housewife gave the housekeeper a present) or scrambled (okusan-ga purezento-o otetsudaisan-ni okutta) dative targets when prompted by a statement-question sequence. The prompting statement established one nonsubject argument of the dative target as given, leaving the other nonsubject argument as new. Previous mention was either with lexically identical content (e.g., otetsudaisan or purezento) or with lexically distinct but nearly synonymous content (meidosan, housemaid or okurimono, gift). Results showed that speakers produced canonical or scrambled word orders so that given arguments were mentioned before new, but especially when the previous mention of the given argument occurred with lexically identical content (replicating Bock and Irwin's English effect). These results show that the production of Japanese scrambled and canonical word orders is sensitive to given versus new status (as in English), implying that given-new ordering arises at the stage of sentence production where scrambling effects are realized.     

The early acquisition of verb meaning in German by normally developing and language impaired children

The research reported here focuses on the early acquisition of event structure in German. Based on longitudinal studies from 5 normally developing (ND) and 6 language-impaired (LI) children, a model of "event structural bootstrapping" is presented that spells out how ND children log into the verb lexicon. They project a target-consistent event tree, depicting the head-of-event of transitions. Young LI children, failing to employ this bootstrapping strategy, resort to radically underspecified event representations. The results from a truth-value judgment experiment with 16 ND and 16 LI children showed that ND children perform correctly on transitional verbs, while LI children perform at chance level on the same tasks. These findings are accounted for by the model of event structural bootstrapping to the extent that LI children lack an explicit representation of the head-of-event.     

唯识心法之认识结构论

本文从现代心理学角度考察了唯识学之心法八识所建构的认识结构。     

Constrained maximum likelihood estimation of two-level covariance structure model via EM type algorithms

In this paper, the constrained maximum likelihood estimation of a two-level covariance structure model with unbalanced designs is considered. The two-level model is reformulated as a single-level model by treating the group level latent random vectors as hypothetical missing-data. Then, the popular EM algorithm is extended to obtain the constrained maximum likelihood estimates. For general nonlinear constraints, the multiplier method is used at theM-step to find the constrained minimum of the conditional expectation. An accelerated EM gradient procedure is derived to handle linear constraints. The empirical performance of the proposed EM type algorithms is illustrated by some artifical and real examples.This research was supported by a Hong Kong UCG Earmarked Grant, CUHK 4026/97H. We are greatly indebted to D.E. Morisky and J.A. Stein for the use of their AIDS data in our example. We also thank the Editor, two anonymous reviewers, W.Y. Poon and H.T. Zhu for constructive suggestions and comments in improving the paper. The assistance of Michael K.H. Leung and Esther L.S. Tam is gratefully acknowledged.     

Structure and content of affective associations with health behaviours: Is the behaviour ‘good OR bad’ or ‘good AND bad’

Objective: The feelings and emotions individuals associate with health-related behaviours influence engagement in those behaviours. However, the structure and the content of these affective associations have not been examined. The studies reported here examined competing hypotheses about the structure (unidimensional or bidimensional) and content (generalised affect or specific emotions) of affective associations with two health-related behaviours: physical activity and fruit/vegetable consumption.

Design: For each behaviour, participants (fruit and vegetable consumption n = 149; physical activity n = 199) completed an assessment of the association of 40 positive and 51 negative affect concepts with the behaviour.

Main outcome measures: Ratings of affective associations with each behaviour.

Results: Confirmatory factor analyses comparing unidimensional and bidimensional affect structure models showed that the structure of individuals’ affective associations was bidimensional for both behaviours – positive and negative affective associations were shown to be separate and distinct constructs. Exploratory factor analyses supported a model of affective associations as generalised affect for both behaviours.

Conclusion: Affective associations with both physical activity and with fruit/vegetable consumption consist of separate positive and negative dimensions of generalised affect. These findings lead to recommendations for research and intervention development based on the implications for how affective associations might operate to influence behavioural decision-making.     

进化心理学对心理素质结构研究的整合与重构——以学生心理素质结构研究为例

传统的心理素质结构研究模式不经济,研究结果出现纵向断裂横向分裂的趋势.从进化心理学的视角来看,心理素质结构的最终功能均指向个体的适应性,其形成是与周围环境不断排斥和融合的过程.建构的心理素质结构融合模型能在一定程度上解决传统研究模式的弊端,并建议今后的研究应以分析人为主导转而分析人及其所处的文化环境并重,进而引导人的心理素质结构的不断发展.     

John Cage and W. R. Bion: an exercise in interdisciplinary dialogue

The author discusses some striking convergences which appear in the thought of two unsettling and powerfully stimulating personalities of the 20th century: John Cage in music and art, and W.R. Bion in psychoanalysis. Both foster openness to the unknown and the need to tolerate 'uncertainties, mysteries, doubts', arguing for an attitude requiring negative valence and receptive emptiness. In their search for fresh personal awareness of reality aimed at allowing mental transformation and growth, both strive to disturb intellectual comfort and do not hesitate to use pro(e)vocative and even shocking means. They both propose an attitude towards tradition which demands the freedom to use and recreate inherited knowledge in a personal and innovative way. Finally, both Cage and Bion maintained a highly auto-reflective attitude, carefully considering the artist's/psychoanalyst's contribution to the process of art and psychoanalysis. These convergences probably represent important and wider contemporary cultural trends which permeate in their different realizations.     

Parental Divorce,Parental Religious Characteristics,and Religious Outcomes in Adulthood

Parental divorce has been linked to religious outcomes in adulthood. Previous research, however, has not adequately accounted for parental religious characteristics, which may render the association spurious and/or moderate the relationship. Many studies also do not consider subsequent family context, namely, whether one's custodial parent remarries. Using pooled data from three waves of the General Social Survey, we examine the nature of the relationships among parental divorce, subsequent family structure, and religiosity in adulthood. Growing up in a single‐parent family—but not a stepparent family—is positively associated with religious disaffiliation and religious switching and negatively associated with regular religious service attendance. Accounting for parental religious characteristics, however, explains sizable proportions of these relationships. In fact, after accounting for parental religious affiliation and service attendance, growing up with a single parent does not have a significant effect on religious service attendance. Parental religiosity also moderates the relationship between growing up with a single parent and religious service attendance: being raised in a single‐parent home does have a negative effect on religious service attendance among adults who had two religiously involved parents. There is modest evidence of this moderating relationship for other religious outcomes. Implications of these findings are discussed.