Bonding and bridging social capital and their associations with self‐evaluated community resilience: A comparative study of East Asia

The purpose of this study is to test key social capital indicators in a disaster context by considering the bonding and bridging types of social capital. Using the East Asian Social Survey, this study chooses three behavioural/cognitive elements of social capital—social trust, voluntary association membership, and personal networks—and divides them into bonding and bridging social capital, in‐group and out‐group trust, homogeneous and heterogeneous membership, and strong and weak ties to test their effects on self‐evaluated community resilience to natural hazards. The results showed that social trust and personal networks had strong positive effects, but the effect of voluntary association membership was positive in societies with high rates of membership (Japan and South Korea) and negative in a society with a low rate of membership (Taiwan). Furthermore, while bonding social capital generally showed a stronger effect than bridging social capital in East Asia, a society with more frequent and intense disasters (Japan) showed a strong effect of heterogenous membership on self‐evaluated community resilience. This study connects two aspects of social capital studies—the elements and the types of social capital—and the findings imply that the relationship between social capital and community resilience may have some mediator variables.     

The development of children's rule use on the balance scale task

Cognitive development can be characterized by a sequence of increasingly complex rules or strategies for solving problems. Our work focuses on the development of children's proportional reasoning, assessed by the balance scale task using Siegler's (1976, 1981) rule assessment methodology. We studied whether children use rules, whether children of different ages use qualitatively different rules, and whether rules are used consistently. Nonverbal balance scale problems were administered to 805 participants between 5 and 19 years of age. Latent class analyses indicate that children use rules, that children of different ages use different rules, and that both consistent and inconsistent use of rules occurs. A model for the development of reasoning about the balance scale task is proposed. The model is a restricted form of the overlapping waves model (Siegler, 1996) and predicts both discontinuous and gradual transitions between rules.     

Thinking about the Needy, Justice, and International Organizations

This article has three main parts, Section 2 considers the nature and extent to which individuals who are well-off have a moral obligation to aid the worlds needy. Drawing on a pluralistic approach to morality, which includes consequentialist, virtue-based, and deontological elements, it is contended that most who are well-off should do much more than they do to aid the needy, and that they are open to serious moral criticism if they simply ignore the needy. Part one also focuses on the United States, and illustrates both how incredibly wealthy the U.S. is and some of the spending habits of its citizens; however, its considerations apply to the well-off generally. Section 3 considers whether justice provides reasons for helping the needy. Noting that justice in an extremely complex notion, it discusses numerous considerations relevant to justices scope and implications, including an extended Rawlsian conception of justice, an absolute conception, a comparative conception, the distinction between natural and social justice, and various elements of common-sense morality. Section 2 also distinguishes between agent-relative justice-based reasons, which are relevant to whether we act justly, and agent-neutral justice-based reasons, which are relevant to whether we have reasons of justicefor acting. Correspondingly, it argues that even if one can ignore the needy without acting unjustly, as philosophers like Robert Nozick and Jan Narveson contend, there may be powerful reasons of justicefor addressing their plight. Section 4 briefly address the responsibilities of international organizations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Trade Organization (WTO). Drawing on Section 2, it is suggested that in addition to standard reasons to act justlytowards needy members of the worlds community, there will be reasons of justicefor such organizations to aid the needy in both present, and future, generations. The article concludes by contending that the well-off in countries like the U.S. have reason to view international organizations like the World Bank, IMF, and WTO as their agents, and to seek to insure that they alleviate misfortunes amongst the worlds needy.     

An accumulator model for responses and response times in tests based on the proportional hazards model

Latent trait models for responses and response times in tests often lack a substantial interpretation in terms of a cognitive process model. This is a drawback because process models are helpful in clarifying the meaning of the latent traits. In the present paper, a new model for responses and response times in tests is presented. The model is based on the proportional hazards model for competing risks. Two processes are assumed, one reflecting the increase in knowledge and the second the tendency to discontinue. The processes can be characterized by two proportional hazards models whose baseline hazard functions correspond to the temporary increase in knowledge and discouragement. The model can be calibrated with marginal maximum likelihood estimation and an application of the ECM algorithm. Two tests of model fit are proposed. The amenability of the proposed approaches to model calibration and model evaluation is demonstrated in a simulation study. Finally, the model is used for the analysis of two empirical data sets.     

Semi‐parametric proportional hazards models with crossed random effects for psychometric response times

The semi‐parametric proportional hazards model with crossed random effects has two important characteristics: it avoids explicit specification of the response time distribution by using semi‐parametric models, and it captures heterogeneity that is due to subjects and items. The proposed model has a proportionality parameter for the speed of each test taker, for the time intensity of each item, and for subject or item characteristics of interest. It is shown how all these parameters can be estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (Gibbs sampling). The performance of the estimation procedure is assessed with simulations and the model is further illustrated with the analysis of response times from a visual recognition task.     

Prediction of true test scores from observed item scores and ancillary data

In many educational tests which involve constructed responses, a traditional test score is obtained by adding together item scores obtained through holistic scoring by trained human raters. For example, this practice was used until 2008 in the case of GRE^®General Analytical Writing and until 2009 in the case of TOEFL^® iBT Writing. With use of natural language processing, it is possible to obtain additional information concerning item responses from computer programs such as e‐rater^®. In addition, available information relevant to examinee performance may include scores on related tests. We suggest application of standard results from classical test theory to the available data to obtain best linear predictors of true traditional test scores. In performing such analysis, we require estimation of variances and covariances of measurement errors, a task which can be quite difficult in the case of tests with limited numbers of items and with multiple measurements per item. As a consequence, a new estimation method is suggested based on samples of examinees who have taken an assessment more than once. Such samples are typically not random samples of the general population of examinees, so that we apply statistical adjustment methods to obtain the needed estimated variances and covariances of measurement errors. To examine practical implications of the suggested methods of analysis, applications are made to GRE General Analytical Writing and TOEFL iBT Writing. Results obtained indicate that substantial improvements are possible both in terms of reliability of scoring and in terms of assessment reliability.     

Distinguishing the Ratio Bias from Unsystematic Error: Situation and Individual‐difference Effects

People often perceive the occurrence of events to be less likely when the likelihood of the event is expressed in ratios consisting of smaller numbers versus larger numbers, an effect known as the ratio bias. This work presents a theoretical framework for the conditions that need to be met for the ratio bias to occur. In doing so, we contrast effects on the ratio bias to those on unsystematic error, which have often been confounded in previous research. We find that the ratio bias is weaker (1) when both sets of numbers are relatively large than when both sets of numbers are relatively small; (2) for scenarios involving lottery tickets than for scenarios involving drawing balls from a bin; and (3) when a physical display depicting the numbers is provided to participants. Each of these factors reduced the ratio bias without reducing unsystematic error. Additionally, we show that unsystematic error is lower among people who (1) reason on the basis of proportions rather than on the basis of the numerator and denominator individually; (2) score higher on the rational scale of the Rational–Experiential Inventory; and (3) are of higher numeracy. We use these results to distinguish causes of error generally from those on the ratio bias specifically and discuss the implications for our understanding of when the ratio bias occurs. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

比例推理的过度使用及其认知机制:一项发展性的负启动研究

从抑制控制模型出发,采用负启动范式探究过度使用比例推理的认知机制。研究包括3个实验,以小学生、中学生和大学生为被试,分别考察了抑制控制在解决缺值应用题、图片推理任务中的作用,以及数字比(整数比、非整数比)是否对抑制控制过程有影响。结果发现:小学生、中学生和大学生在两类实验任务中均出现了负启动效应,但负启动量不存在年级差异;在图片推理任务中,不同数字比类型下的负启动量具有显著差异。研究结果支持了抑制控制模型的观点,即成功解决问题不仅需要掌握问题的内在逻辑,更需要对不恰当策略进行抑制;在解决问题的过程中,无论是儿童、青少年还是成人都需要抑制控制的参与,三者在抑制控制效率上没有差异;数字比类型对抑制过程有影响,但仅限于图片推理问题。     

State Hospital Reentry Among Youth with Serious Emotional Disturbance: A Longitudinal Analysis

We investigated the demographic, service history, and clinical factors associated with readmission to state operated inpatient psychiatric hospitals by children and adolescents. Using computerized administrative data records for 3,969 consecutive index admissions of individuals between the ages of 7 and 17 inclusive, we examined hospital reentry among youth receiving services at these facilities. The univariate analysis comparing youths who reentered the hospital with those who did not reenter indicated that reentry was more likely to occur among African American youths and among those who were diagnosed with psychotic disorders. Reentry occurred less frequently among youths diagnosed with depressive disorders. Reentry also occurred less frequently among youths living in areas having an organized array of community-based mental health services. Youths who reentered the hospital were significantly older and had longer prior hospitalizations than those not reentering. The proportional hazards model used in the analysis indicated several factors associated with increased likelihood of hospital reentry. African American youths and individuals diagnosed with a psychotic disorder were more likely to reenter the hospital. Younger youths and those having lengthy prior hospitalizations were at increased risk for reentering the hospital. Youths living in urban, white, higher income communities were less likely to reenter the hospital.