Geographical profiling incorporating neighbourhood-level factors using spatial interaction modelling

The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of methods that use spatial interaction modelling to predict the most probable area for an offender's residence. Tokyo, which is the capital of Japan and is divided into 1507 square-kilometre zones, was selected as the study area. We analysed 4316 criminal trips to commit residential burglaries by 1089 offenders who lived in Tokyo. The following neighbourhood-level factors, and a distance-decay effect between zones, were incorporated into the proposed model: the size of the residential population aged 15–59 years in origin zones, the numbers of households living in detached houses, newcomers, the number of police facilities in destination zones, and the spatial structures of the criminal trips. Search areas calculated by the proposed model were smaller than previous models, suggesting that neighbourhood-level factors are important for predicting the location of an offender's residence.     

What Do the AMCD Multicultural and Social Justice Counseling Competencies Mean in the Context of Black Lives Matter?

In this article, the authors discuss how the legacy of hypersurveillance and egregious anti‐Black vigilante violence and police brutality helped foment the Black Lives Matter movement. The authors consider how the Multicultural and Social Justice Counseling Competencies (Ratts, Singh, Nassar‐McMillan, Butler, & McCullough, 2015) can operate as an ethical professional framework counselor educators can use with counselors‐in‐training to increase their awareness, knowledge, and skills in relation to the state‐sanctioned violence Black people routinely experience. En este artículo, los autores discuten cómo el legado de hipervigilancia y la violencia brutal ejercida contra personas negras por parte de la policía y patrullas urbanas ayudaron a fomentar el movimiento Black Lives Matter. Los autores consideran cómo las Competencias en Consejería Multicultural y Justicia Social (Singh, Nassar‐McMillan, Butler & McCullough, 2015) pueden funcionar como un marco ético profesional que los educadores de consejeros pueden usar con sus consejeros en formación para aumentar su conciencia, conocimientos, y habilidades en relación con la violencia autorizada por el Estado que sufren con frecuencia las personas negras.     

Behavioural Investigative Advice: Assistance to Investigative Decision‐making in Difficult‐to‐detect Murder

This paper considers the role of a Behavioural Investigative Adviser (BIA) in assisting with the decision‐making of a Senior Investigating Officer (SIO) in difficult‐to‐detect murder investigations. It outlines the need for transparent evidence‐based decision‐making from both the SIO and the BIA. The paper then details a piece of relevant, applied research that can assist in this end. The research utilised a pragmatic psychology approach to analyse 312 detected murder cases from the Serious Crime Analysis Section database. Some significant patterns relating what is known about the offence at different stages of an investigation and inferences regarding the offender were found, indicating that certain offence information can lead to some reliable predictions and these can be refined as more information becomes available. However, the findings also indicate that base rate frequencies and a ‘best‐guess’ methodology may be as, if not more, useful than more complex statistical techniques when providing advice to investigations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rape and sexual assault in investigative psychology: the contribution of sex offenders' research to offender profiling

Research on sex offenders has mainly guided clinical practice for risk assessment and therapeutic intervention. However, the current scientific knowledge on these offenders and their crimes is, in many aspects, of great importance to criminal investigations. Consequently, there is a need to build bridges between investigative psychology and the research being conducted on sex offenders. Four areas of research on sex offenders that have clear implications to investigative psychology can be identified: (1) the consistency or ‘crime‐switching’ patterns of sex offenders; (2) the recidivism patterns of different types of sex offenders; (3) the police response to specific victim characteristics; and (4) the A → C equation of sexual assaults. This paper argues for a need to establish a dialogue between these two fields of research so that knowledge about sex offenders keeps growing whilst being able to inform policing practices in investigative psychology. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The conjunction fallacy in profiles of victims of homicide

Using basic probability theory, estimates of the characteristics of the average homicide victim are calculated using the notion of disjoint probability. The assumption of disjoint events (e.g., the victim's race bears no effect on the offender's weapon choice) is then tested empirically using the Uniform Crime Report‐Supplementary Homicide Report. Exploratory results suggest that many demographic and situational characteristics taken together are only slightly more related than chance. Put simply, the average profile of homicide victims portrayed by the media becomes less likely as demographic variables are added. A survey was conducted to test whether individuals conjoined these characteristics, thinking they were more likely to occur together. Consistent with the conjunction fallacy, many participants overestimated the likelihood that certain demographic or situational characteristics will occur together, and some overestimated it to a mathematically impossible degree. These two experiments showcase the difficulty in displaying statistical profiling and how it affects the public's perception of offenders.     

Individual differences in distance travelled by serial burglars

This paper uses police data on a sample of 41 serial burglars committed in the city of St John's, Canada and surrounding areas, to examine individual differences in distances travelled. In accord with findings from studies in other locations, results show that serial burglary is a localised activity. Differences between serial burglars in distances they travel are related to the burglars' age, method of transportation and value of property stolen. These results are discussed in terms of existing explanations of distances that serial burglars travel to select targets and implications for police decision‐making. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decay functions and criminal spatial processes: geographical offender profiling of volume crime

Although it is now well established across diverse samples that the frequency of offending ‘decays’ as distance from the home/base increases, it remains unclear what form of decay function best characterises this relationship. Different forms of decay function reflect different patterns and rates of decrease in the likelihood of offending as distance from the home/base increases. These different patterns imply rather different underlying psychological processes. Therefore, considerations of the particular function characterising distance decay elucidate explanations of offender spatial behaviour. To bring to light the possible psychological and behavioural processes inherent in offending distance decay, the present study examined the fit of logarithmic, negative exponential, and quadratic decay functions to the distribution of the distances travelled to offend by a sample of 70 prolific burglars from the UK. It is argued that these functions are consistent with the operation of perceptual processes of magnitude estimation, friction or effort effects, and the influences of cost‐benefit assessments, respectively. The results indicate that offending distance decay patterns most closely fit the logarithmic function, consistent with Stevens' perceptual processes of distortion in magnitude estimation, whilst not ruling out additional processes relating to the increased effort required in travelling greater distances to offend. Because most geographical profiling systems are built upon the distance decay function, the impact of utilising the different forms of function on the accuracy of geographic profiles was also assessed utilising ‘search cost’ calculations. The results showed little impact of applying different decay functions. Thus, whilst the decay function does have important theoretical implications for understanding offender spatial behaviour, it is noted that the particular variant used does not significantly impact on the effectiveness of geographical profiling systems as they currently exist. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When to Refrain from Using Likelihood Surface Methods for Geographic Offender Profiling: An Ex Ante Test of Assumptions

Likelihood surface methods for geographic offender profiling rely on several assumptions regarding the underlying location choice mechanism of an offender. We propose an ex ante test for checking whether a given set of crime locations is compatible with two necessary assumptions: circular symmetry and distance decay. The proposed (SDD) test compares the observed inter point distances of a given series of crimes with a theoretical distribution function governed by these assumptions, using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure for approximating that distribution function. We apply the SDD test to data on serial burglary from both the UK and the Netherlands. In most cases, the assumption of an underlying symmetric distance decay function has to be rejected. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Redefining the psychological autopsy: A proposal for collaboration between forensic pathology and investigative psychology

Excepting psychiatry, psychology and medicine remain largely separate disciplines. In forensic inquiries, the psychologist assesses the mind, whereas the pathologist examines the body. Both fields, however, actively participate in the same investigations, albeit from different standpoints, contributing to explorations of crime scene dynamics, identification of offenders, and legal proceedings. In recent years, peer review has become a staple of research, because subjecting work to scrutiny by other experts promotes accuracy. Forensic pathologists would benefit from insights provided by investigative psychology, particularly if asked to apply psychology to their testimony, and integration with forensic pathology may increase the acceptance of empirical profiling evidence in the courtroom. Additionally, incorporation of medical findings—such as wound patterns, evidence of range of fire, and cause of death determinations—could add another level of detail to techniques like smallest space analysis. The following functions as a proposal for the incorporation of forensic pathological findings into investigative psychology research and the application of investigative psychology to forensic pathology practice. Cooperation has the potential to extend the scope of knowledge in both disciplines, to increase their applicability to and acceptance in legal contexts and to maximize the probative value of evidence provided in the court of law.     

Variations in the Journey from Crime: Examples from Tiger Kidnapping

The current paper explores the journey offenders make after their offence through a series of tiger kidnap offences from the north and south of Ireland. Tiger kidnap is the abduction of a person of importance to a victim (generally a bank manager) in which that person is used as collateral until the victim complies with the requests of the offenders. Data were provided by the Police Service of Northern Ireland and An Garda Siochana. Three stages of the offences were highlighted: (1) the journey from the abduction location to the hostage location; (2) the abduction location to the robbery location; and (3) the robbery location to the money exchange location. Analysis found significant difference between offences in the north and south for stages 1 and 2 but not for stage 3. This is due to the type of offenders committing the offence, for example, offences in the north being committed by ex‐paramilitary offenders. Further study should focus on understanding complex tiger kidnap offences. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.