Do people make decisions under risk based on ignorance? An empirical test of the priority heuristic against cumulative prospect theory

Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409–432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predictions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT.     

Counterintuitive and alternative moves choice in the Water Jug task

MOVE problems, like the Tower of London (TOL) or the Water Jug (WJ) task, are planning tasks that appear structurally similar and are assumed to involve similar cognitive processes. Carder et al. [Carder, H.P., Handley, S.J., & Perfect, T.J. ( 2004). Deconstructing the Tower of London: Alternative moves and conflict resolution as predictors of task performance. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 57a, 8, 1459-1483] showed that one predictor of TOL performance was the number of alternative move choices there were at a given point in the solution. In two experiments an individual move experienced on the WJ task was manipulated (perceptually consistent/counterintuitive) along with the number of alternative moves there were to choose between. A verification paradigm was employed in which participants made speeded judgements about the correctness of a move. Results showed performance was consistent with the application of a perceptual strategy accompanied by a process involving the evaluation of non-redundant alternative moves. These are discussed in the context of recent research that has examined the impact of executive dysfunction on Water Jug performance [Colvin, M.K., Dunbar, K., & Grafman, J. (2001). The effects of frontal lobe lesions on goal achievement in the Water Jug task. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 13, 1129-1147].     

“健康国家”战略发展的过程与国际经验

基于健康价值概念,居民健康所面临的挑战,以及医疗卫生服务发展趋势,系统描述了“健康国家”战略的发展过程与国际社会实施“健康国家”战略的基本情况,并提出了可借鉴与学习的经验。     

加拿大健康战略及其启示

介绍了加拿大健康战略出台的背号、战略愿景、目标、优先发展领域和具体的行动计划,在此基础上总结了加拿大健康战略实施过程的基本特点与经验,并结合我国的实际情况,提出了我国制定和实施“健康中国2020”战略的相关政策建议。     

美国、英国和加拿大健康战略的比较分析

美国、英国和加拿大三国均为发达国家,也是世界上最早开展健康战略研究的几个国家。通过比较美国、英国和加拿大三国的基本卫生状况、健康战略的内容和发展过程,在此基础上,分析了三个国家在制定和实施健康战略过程中的做法与经验,为制定和完善“健康中国2020”战略提出了相关的建议。     

基层医院病理诊断工作中的矛盾及解决对策

通过对目前地市级及以下医院病理诊断工作处于艰难处境,严重制约临床各科发展的现状进行分析。提出了四个方面突出的矛盾,临床技术飞速发展与病理工作条件滞后的矛盾;病理、临床医师间信息不对称的矛盾;日益升温的冰冻切片需求与其固有局限性的矛盾;临床对诊断高准确性要求与病理诊断高复杂性现实的矛盾。探讨了相应解决对策。     

小学儿童算术估算能力的发展

本研究深入考察了我国现阶段小学儿童算术估算能力的发展状况。通过运用自编材料对1027名儿童的团体与个别测试,发现其估算能力的发展具有如下特点：（1）明显受到题目类型的影响,但在不同年龄阶段影响又不尽相同。（2）三年级可能是整数和小数估算能力发展的一个关键期,五年级是发展分数估算能力的较好时期。（3）不同估算策略的发展进程差别相当大,不同时期都有发展的侧重点。（4）小学儿童在估算时易发生多种错误,而且不同年级均有一些典型错误。另外研究还对儿童估算能力、策略与错误类型的发展进行了深入讨论。     

Simulating Turing machines on Maurer machines

In a previous paper, we used Maurer machines to model and analyse micro-architectures. In the current paper, we investigate the connections between Turing machines and Maurer machines with the purpose to gain an insight into computability issues relating to Maurer machines. We introduce ways to simulate Turing machines on a Maurer machine which, dissenting from the classical theory of computability, take into account that in reality computations always take place on finite machines. In one of those ways, multi-threads and thread forking have an interesting theoretical application.     

Age,Emotion Regulation Strategies,Temperament, Creative Drama,and Preschoolers' Creativity

Based on Yeh's (2004) Ecological Systems Model of Creativity Development, this study investigated the effects that age, the use of emotion regulation strategies, temperament, and exposure to creative drama instruction have on the development of creativity among preschool children. Participants were 1164‐ to 6‐year‐old preschool children. This study categorized the emotion regulation strategies used by preschool children and developed a creativity test which includes the measurement of usefulness, an indicator of creativity that has, until now, been ignored. The main findings are that (a) 6‐year‐olds outperform 4‐ and 5‐year‐olds in terms of creativity; (b) emotion regulation strategies as well as a positive temperament have positive effects on children's creativity; (c) creative drama instruction contributes to children's creativity; and (d) age group, emotion regulation strategies, temperament, and creative drama instruction can collectively predict children's creativity.     

权力感知对怀旧偏好的影响机制

作者考察了权力感知对消费者怀旧偏好的影响及其心理机制。通过3个实验, 作者发现低权力者比高权力者更加偏好怀旧产品或怀旧品牌, 而寻找生活意义的动机在该影响过程中起中介作用。具体而言, 权力的缺失导致个体认为自己的生活缺乏意义, 进而激发出寻找生活意义的动机。由于怀旧可以通过回忆有意义的事件和提供社会支持两条途径来帮助个体重拾生活意义, 因此低权力的消费者倾向于进行怀旧消费。这一研究发现进一步丰富了现有的权力和怀旧文献, 并对怀旧营销的设计具有重要的实践指导意义。