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211.
肺栓塞评分方法是国际上肺栓塞诊断策略的重要基础。本文简要介绍国际上常用肺栓塞评分方法,即Wells法、Geneva法、Geneva改良法、Pisa法和Claudia法,并评价和比较这些方法在临床上的应用,建议建立并规范使用适合我国国情的肺栓塞评分方法。 相似文献
212.
Dmitry I. Belov 《Psychometrika》2008,73(1):21-38
In educational practice, a test assembly problem is formulated as a system of inequalities induced by test specifications.
Each solution to the system is a test, represented by a 0–1 vector, where each element corresponds to an item included (1)
or not included (0) into the test. Therefore, the size of a 0–1 vector equals the number of items n in a given item pool. All solutions form a feasible set—a subset of 2
n
vertices of the unit cube in an n-dimensional vector space. Test assembly is uniform if each test from the feasible set has an equal probability of being assembled.
This paper demonstrates several important applications of uniform test assembly for educational practice. Based on Slepian’s
inequality, a binary program was analytically studied as a candidate for uniform test assembly. The results of this study
establish a connection between combinatorial optimization and probability inequalities. They identify combinatorial properties
of the feasible set that control the uniformity of the binary programming test assembly. Computer experiments illustrating
the concepts of this paper are presented. 相似文献
213.
We extend de Finetti’s No-Dutch-Book Criterion to Gödel infinite-valued propositional logic. 相似文献
214.
Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov 《Journal of mathematical psychology》2008,52(2):93-115
This is the third paper in the series introducing the Dissimilarity Cumulation theory and its main psychological application, Universal Fechnerian Scaling. The previously developed dissimilarity-based theory of path length is used to construct the notion of a smooth path, defined by the property that the ratio of the dissimilarity between its points to the length of the subtended fragment of the path tends to unity as the points get closer to each other. We consider a class of stimulus spaces in which for every path there is a series of piecewise smooth paths converging to it pointwise and in length; and a subclass of such spaces where any two sufficiently close points can be connected by a smooth “geodesic in the small”. These notions are used to construct a broadly understood Finslerian geometry of stimulus spaces representable by regions of Euclidean n-spaces. With an additional assumption of comeasurability in the small between the canonical psychometric increments of the first and second kind, this establishes a link between Universal Fechnerian Scaling and Multidimensional Fechnerian Scaling in Euclidean n-spaces. The latter was a starting point for our theoretical program generalizing Fechner’s idea that sensation magnitudes can be computed by integration of a local discriminability measure. 相似文献
215.
Håkan Nilsson 《决策行为杂志》2008,21(4):471-490
The literature presents two major theories on the cause of the conjunction fallacy. The first attributes the conjunction fallacy to the representativeness heuristic. The second suggests that the conjunction fallacy is caused by people combining p(A) and p(B) into p(A&B) in an inappropriate manner. These two theories were contrasted in two category‐learning experiments. As predicted by the latter theory, data showed that participants that could assess p(A&B) directly made fewer conjunction fallacies than participants who had to compute p(A) and p(B) separately and then combine them into p(A&B). Least conjunction fallacies were observed in the cases where the representativeness heuristic was applicable. Overall, data showed that an inability to appropriately combine probabilities is one of the key cognitive mechanisms behind the conjunction fallacy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
216.
217.
Kuninori Nakamura 《The Japanese psychological research》2004,46(1):44-55
Abstract: Previous studies on subjective probability judgment indicate that pair‐wise comparison between the focal and the strongest alternative outcome plays an important role in probability judgment. This study, however, found that the randomness of alternative outcomes affected probability judgment for focal outcome. In the present study, 182 participants provided probability estimates for winning on hypothetical slot machines where both successes and losses were composed of multiple outcomes. The randomness of both the focal and alternative outcomes were defined by the expression used in Rappoport and Budescu (1997 ). The analysis indicated that the more random the distributions of both focal and alternative outcomes, the higher the estimated probability for focal outcome. Some theoretical suggestions are discussed. 相似文献
218.
Emil Weydert 《Journal of Applied Logic》2003,1(3-4):273
We present a powerful quasi-probabilistic default formalism for graded defaults based on a well-motivated canonical ranking construction procedure, System JLZ. It implements the minimal construction paradigm and verifies the major inference principles and inheritance desiderata, including rational monotony for propositions and structured cumulativity for default conditionals. With help from a structured ranking semantics for defaults, it also avoids some drawbacks of semi-qualitative entropy maximization and other competing accounts. 相似文献
219.
本文从科学范式演变和概率统计推断特征分析出发,就贝叶斯统计推断引入心理学的必要性、怎么应用、在哪些领域应用集中进行了论述。首先在分析科学范式演进各阶段统计推断任务需要、经典的频率概率统计推断不足基础上,得出科学范式处于危机和革命阶段时需要对相关理论做可信度检验。然后,在介绍贝叶斯定理及其统计推断的基础上,进一步分析了贝叶斯推断能解决理论可信度的多种假设检验情景。最后本文还就贝叶斯统计推断在心理学理论争鸣与建构、心理技术产品开发与评估具体领域应用做了分析。 相似文献
220.
Thomas Augustin 《Journal of mathematical psychology》2005,49(1):70-79
The paper presents a straightforward extension of the Bradley-Terry-Luce model (BTL model) that can be derived from the logistic threshold model of psychophysics which assumes that psychometric functions are logistic probability functions. It is shown that (under weak side conditions) the logistic threshold model is a submodel of the extended BTL model. Moreover, representation and uniqueness theorems are proven that provide some evidence that the extended BTL model is a useful and widely applicable generalization of the ordinary BTL model. Finally, the logistic shape of the psychometric function is derived from axioms about binary choice probabilities. This characterization of the logistic threshold model can replace goodness of fit tests for the logistic probability distribution. 相似文献