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241.
Three experiments tested the exemplar cuing and frequency format accounts of how the ‘imaginability’ of low‐probability events is enhanced. The experiments manipulated imaginability by varying the statistics used to describe negative (e.g. being scarred as a result of laser surgery) and positive (e.g. winning a lottery) low‐probability events. The results strongly supported the frequency format account, whereby imaginability is enhanced through the use of frequency formats for conveying statistical information (e.g. 20 out of 2000 as opposed to 0.01%). However, only limited support was found for exemplar cuing (EC) theory. Overall the results support the claim that the imaginability of outcomes plays a key role in thinking about low‐probability events, but question the mechanisms specified by EC theory for mediating such effects. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
242.
涵义语义与关于概称句推理的词项逻辑 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
概称句推理具有以词项为单位的特征并且词项的涵义在其中起到了重要的作用。已有的处理用A一表达式表达涵义,不够简洁和自然。亚里斯多德三段论是一种词项逻辑,但它是外延的和单调的。这两方面的情况使得有必要考虑新的词项逻辑。涵义语义的基本观点是：语词首先表达的是涵义,通过涵义的作用,语词有了指称,表达概念。概称句三段论是更为常用的推理,有两个基本形式GAG和Gaa。在涵义语义的基础上建立的系统GAG和Gaa是关于这两种推理的公理系统。 相似文献
243.
Mazur JE 《Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior》2005,83(3):263-279
In Experiment 1 with rats, a left lever press led to a 5-s delay and then a possible reinforcer. A right lever press led to an adjusting delay and then a certain reinforcer. This delay was adjusted over trials to estimate an indifference point, or a delay at which the two alternatives were chosen about equally often. Indifference points increased as the probability of reinforcement for the left lever decreased. In some conditions with a 20% chance of food, a light above the left lever was lit during the 5-s delay on all trials, but in other conditions, the light was only lit on those trials that ended with food. Unlike previous results with pigeons, the presence or absence of the delay light on no-food trials had no effect on the rats' indifference points. In other conditions, the rats showed less preference for the 20% alternative when the time between trials was longer. In Experiment 2 with rats, fixed-interval schedules were used instead of simple delays, and the presence or absence of the fixed-interval requirement on no-food trials had no effect on the indifference points. In Experiment 3 with rats and Experiment 4 with pigeons, the animals chose between a fixed-ratio 8 schedule that led to food on 33% of the trials and an adjusting-ratio schedule with food on 100% of the trials. Surprisingly, the rats showed less preference for the 33% alternative in conditions in which the ratio requirement was omitted on no-food trials. For the pigeons, the presence or absence of the ratio requirement on no-food trials had little effect. The results suggest that there may be differences between rats and pigeons in how they respond in choice situations involving delayed and probabilistic reinforcers. 相似文献
244.
When providing a probability estimate for an event, experts often supply reasons that they expect will clarify and support that estimate. We investigated the possible unintended influence that these reasons might have on a listener's intuitive interpretation of the event's likelihood. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that people who read positive reasons for a doctor's probability estimate regarding a hypothetical surgery were more optimistic than those who read negative reasons for the identical estimate. Experiment 3 tested whether a doctor's failure forecast for a surgery would result in differing levels of pessimism when the potential risk was attributed to one complication that had a probability of 0.30 versus three complications that had a disjunctive probability of 0.30. Overall, the findings are consistent with the argument that a probability estimate, albeit numerically precise, can be flexibly interpreted at an intuitive level depending on the reasons that the forecaster provides as the basis for the estimate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
245.
Winston R. Sieck 《决策行为杂志》2003,16(2):127-145
An experiment is reported in which participants rendered judgments regarding the disease states of hypothetical patients. Participants either reported likelihoods that patients had the target disease (no choice), or classified patients into disease categories and then reported likelihoods that their classifications were correct (choice included). Also, participants' likelihood judgments were made in response to either a probability probe question, or a relative frequency probe. Two distinct exemplar‐memory models were compared on their ability to predict overconfidence under these procedures. Both propose that people learn and judge by storing and retrieving examples. The exemplar retrieval model (ERM) proposes that amount of retrieval drives choice inclusion and likelihood probe effects. The alternative model assumes that response error mediates choice inclusion effects. Choice inclusion and the relative frequency probe reduced overconfidence, but the combined effects were subadditive. Only the ERM predicted this pattern, and it further provided good quantitative fits to these results. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
246.
Verbal expressions of probability and uncertainty are of two kinds: positive (‘probable’, ‘possible’) and negative (‘not certain’, ‘doubtful’). Choice of term has implications for predictions and decisions. The present studies show that positive phrases are rated to be more optimistic (when the target outcome is positive), and more correct, when the target outcome actually occurs, even in cases where positive and negative phrases are perceived to convey the same probabilities (Experiments 1 and 2). Selection of phrase can be determined by linguistic frame. Positive quantifiers (‘some’, ‘several’) support positive probability phrases, whereas negative quantifiers (‘not all’) suggest negative phrases (Experiment 3). Positive frames induced by numeric frequencies (e.g. the number of students to be admitted) imply positive probability phrases, whereas negative frames (e.g. the number of students to be rejected) call for negative probability phrases (Experiment 4). It is concluded that choice of verbal phrase is based not only on level of probability, but also on situational and linguistic cues. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
247.
Bayesian decision theory is a mathematical framework that models reasoning and decision‐making under uncertain conditions. The past few decades have witnessed an explosion of Bayesian modeling within cognitive science. Bayesian models are explanatorily successful for an array of psychological domains. This article gives an opinionated survey of foundational issues raised by Bayesian cognitive science, focusing primarily on Bayesian modeling of perception and motor control. Issues discussed include the normative basis of Bayesian decision theory; explanatory achievements of Bayesian cognitive science; intractability of Bayesian computation; realist versus instrumentalist interpretation of Bayesian models; and neural implementation of Bayesian inference. This article is categorized under:
- Philosophy > Foundations of Cognitive Science
248.
Denis Perrin 《Theoria》2021,87(1):109-135
This article aims at proposing an account of the linguistic meaning (or: character) of pure indexicals (indexicals, for short). On its core theoretical proposal, a deference mechanism is built into the meaning of indexicals, and this mechanism defers the task of reference to contextually‐given designation relations. The basic motivation for this claim is that the contexts of tokening of indexicals, be they perceptual or discursive, are rich semiotic entities that provide designation relations that pre‐exist the interpretation of such indexicals. The latter, on my suggestion, would thus be deferential devices through which language exploits these semiotic elements of contexts. I make a case for this deferentialist image by first taking issue with intentionalism and token‐reflexivism concerning the use of indexicals in face‐to‐face communication. I argue for the possibility of indexicals having perceptual reference, claiming that intentionalism can account only for a pragmatic content that is sometimes added to the semantic content, but not for the semantic content itself, and that token‐reflexivism gives norms for the perceptual reference of indexicals, but not the reference operation itself. I then proceed to extend deferentialism to indexical expressions in general on the one hand, and to anaphoric uses of pure indexicals on the other. 相似文献
249.
Most words in natural languages are polysemous; that is, they have related but different meanings in different contexts. This one-to-many mapping of form to meaning presents a challenge to understanding how word meanings are learned, represented, and processed. Previous work has focused on solutions in which multiple static semantic representations are linked to a single word form, which fails to capture important generalizations about how polysemous words are used; in particular, the graded nature of polysemous senses, and the flexibility and regularity of polysemy use. We provide a novel view of how polysemous words are represented and processed, focusing on how meaning is modulated by context. Our theory is implemented within a recurrent neural network that learns distributional information through exposure to a large and representative corpus of English. Clusters of meaning emerge from how the model processes individual word forms. In keeping with distributional theories of semantics, we suggest word meanings are generalized from contexts of different word tokens, with polysemy emerging as multiple clusters of contextually modulated meanings. We validate our results against a human-annotated corpus of polysemy focusing on the gradedness, flexibility, and regularity of polysemous sense individuation, as well as behavioral findings of offline sense relatedness ratings and online sentence processing. The results provide novel insights into how polysemy emerges from contextual processing of word meaning from both a theoretical and computational point of view. 相似文献
250.
Sentences such as “The girls read a book” can lead to multiple interpretations: They could be reading the same book (collective) or they could each be reading their own book (distributive). In ambiguous contexts, adults prefer the collective interpretation, and preschool children show a slight bias for a distributive interpretation. The current research investigated whether conceptual factors (number of actors) influences interpretations of these kinds of predicates. The data with children show a stronger collective bias when there are four actors compared to two actors. This may be because children are more likely to conceptualize groups of four (vs. two) as sets rather than collections of individuals. These data are discussed with reference to research on visual and conceptual integration abilities, showing that children lag behind in their ability to combine components into a whole in comparison to parsing objects into their component parts. 相似文献