Thinking styles and risky decision‐making: Further exploration of the affect–probability weighting link

People usually overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities leading to the familiar inverse S‐shaped weighting function. This research explores the link between affect and the structure of probability weighting from the perspective of thinking dispositions, a concept central to dual system theories of reasoning. The effects of affective priming and cognitive load on both probability weighting and the value function are also examined. The evidence suggests that thinking styles do have predictive implications for risky decision‐making. Participants with a more affective thinking style tend to be more risk‐seeking in small probability gambles. However, increasing access to the affective system by affective priming or cognitive load manipulations tend to reduce risk‐seeking behavior in small probability gambles as well as reduce risk averse behavior in large probability gambles. Previous research, manipulating the affective nature of lottery outcomes, found evidence for an increase in curvature (more overweighting of small probabilities and more underweighting of large probabilities) of the weighting function for affect‐rich outcomes, lending support to a hope‐and‐fear deconstruction of probability weighting. The present research suggests that increased anticipatory emotions characterized by the elevation of the weighting function (more overweighting at all probabilities) is also important and could sometimes be more significant than hope‐and‐fear in decision‐making under risk. An integrated approach incorporating the impact of affect on all three, the elevation and curvature of probability weighting as well as the curvature of the value function explains the empirical findings. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semantic coherence and fallacies in estimating joint probabilities

In three experiments on joint probability estimation, gist representations were manipulated with analogies, and the suboptimal strategy of ignoring relevant denominators was counteracted with training in using 2 × 2 tables to clarify joint probability estimates. The estimated probabilities of two events, as well as their conjunctive and disjunctive probabilities, were assessed against two benchmarks, logical fallacies and semantic coherence—a constellation of estimates consistent with the relationship among sets. Fuzzy‐trace theory (FTT) predicts that analogies will increase semantic coherence, and a table intervention affecting denominator neglect will both increase semantic coherence and reduce fallacies. In all three experiments, analogies increased semantic coherence. In both experiments training participants to use 2 × 2 tables, such tables reduced fallacies and increased semantic coherence. As the relations among sets in the problem materials progressed in cognitive complexity from identical sets, mutually exclusive sets, and subsets to overlapping sets, fallacies generally increased, and semantic coherence generally decreased. These findings indicate that denominator neglect is pervasive, but that it can be remedied with a straightforward intervention that clarifies relations among sets. Further, intuitive gist‐based probability estimation can be improved through the use of simple analogies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hybrid logic with the difference modality for generalisations of graphs

We discuss recent work generalising the basic hybrid logic with the difference modality to any reasonable notion of transition. This applies equally to both subrelational transitions such as monotone neighbourhood frames or selection function models as well as those with more structure such as Markov chains and alternating temporal frames. We provide a generic canonical cut-free sequent system and a terminating proof-search strategy for the fragment without the difference modality but including the global modality.     

Modal Platonism: an Easy Way to Avoid Ontological Commitment to Abstract Entities

Modal Platonism utilizes “weak” logical possibility, such that it is logically possible there are abstract entities, and logically possible there are none. Modal Platonism also utilizes a non-indexical actuality operator. Modal Platonism is the EASY WAY, neither reductionist nor eliminativist, but embracing the Platonistic language of abstract entities while eliminating ontological commitment to them. STATEMENT OF MODAL PLATONISM. Any consistent statement B ontologically committed to abstract entities may be replaced by an empirically equivalent modalization, MOD(B), not so ontologically committed. This equivalence is provable using Modal/Actuality Logic S5@. Let MAX be a strong set theory with individuals. Then the following Schematic Bombshell Result (SBR) can be shown: MAX logically yields [T is true if and only if MOD(T) is true], for scientific theories T. The proof utilizes Stephen Neale’s clever model-theoretic interpretation of Quantified Lewis S5, which I extend to S5@.     

Looking back versus looking ahead: framing of time and work at different stages of a project

Progress on a well‐defined project can be described along a task dimension in terms of amount done, or as amount of work still to be completed. Time‐limited projects can also be described on a temporal dimension in terms of time spent versus time left. Five experiments are reported showing that such frames have predictable implications for speakers as well as for listeners: Statements by a team leader about time spent and work left are perceived as suggestions to “hurry up,” whereas complementary statements about work done and time left indicate that the team can take it more easy. The first set of statements further implies that the team is behind schedule, whereas the last two statements suggest that the team is ahead of the plan. In line with this, speakers preferred work done and time left statements when they were ahead of schedule, but not when they were behind. “Hurry up” and “behind schedule” interpretations were also shown to be dependent upon stage, being more prominent in the final stages than during the initial stages of a project. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining classical logic, paraconsistency and relevance

We present a logic with has both a simple semantics and a cut-free Gentzen-type system on one hand, and which combines relevance logics, da Costa's paraconsistent logics, and classical logic on the other. We further show that the logic has many other nice properties, and that its language is ideal from the semantic point of view.     

A comprehensive semantic framework for data integration systems

A data integration system provides the user with a unified view, called global schema, of the data residing at different sources. Users issue their queries against the global schema, and the system computes answers to queries by suitably accessing the sources, through the mapping, i.e., the specification of the relationship between the global schema and the sources. Since sources are in general autonomous subsystems, the information provided by the data at the sources and the mapping is likely not to be consistent with the knowledge expressed by the global schema. Therefore, the question arises of how to interpret user queries in such a situation, i.e., in the presence of data contradicting the global schema and the mapping. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the problem of dealing with inconsistencies in data integration systems. In this respect, we highlight the central role played by the mapping, and propose a general “mapping-centered” semantics that allows for computing significant answers to user queries even in the presence of inconsistent information. Based on such a semantic analysis, we define a general formal framework for data integration. Then, we argue that our semantic approach formalizes a very reasonable way of handling inconsistency in such systems, since practically all the existing proposals in the literature can be reconstructed in our framework. This allows for comparing and evaluating the different existing proposals.     

Associated Factors of Suicide Among University Students: Importance of Family Environment

The aim in this study was to underline the importance of family environment as a significant associate of suicide probability among university students. For this aim 226 Turkish university students completed Suicide Probability Scale, Family Environment Questionnaire, Beck Depression Inventory, and Positive and Negative Affect Scale. As a result of the formulated regression analysis, after controlling for the 51% of the total variance accounted for by the control variables (i.e., gender, age, living with family versus away from family, and Grade Point Averages) and mood related variables (i.e., depressive symptoms, and positive and negative affect), family cohesion still emerged as a significant associate of the suicide probability. These findings underline the importance of family relations as a risk factor of suicide among university students.This work has been supported by the Turkish Academy of Sciences, in the framework of the Young Scientist Award Program. (TG-TUBA-GEBİP/2002-1-11).     

主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响

用贝叶斯推理问题为实验材料,探讨了主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响。结果表明,当估计的事件与主体有关时,被试对消极事件概率估计较低,对积极事件概率估计值;当估计的事件与主体无关时,被试对消极事件和积极事件的概率估计无显著差异。反应时分析表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计比对积极事件的概率估计时间显著地长,当消极事件与主体有关时概率估计时间就更长;而对积极事件的概率估计,与主体有关和与主体无关时反应时差异不显著。这表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计(特别是消极事件与己有关时)更为慎重。