Chances and frequencies in probabilistic reasoning: rejoinder to Hoffrage,Gigerenzer, Krauss,and Martignon

Do individuals unfamiliar with probability and statistics need a specific type of data in order to draw correct inferences about uncertain events? Girotto and Gonzalez (Cognition 78 (2001) 247) showed that naive individuals solve frequency as well as probability problems, when they reason extensionally, in particular when probabilities are represented by numbers of chances. Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss, and Martignon (Cognition 84 (2002) 343) argued that numbers of chances are natural frequencies disguised as probabilities, though lacking the properties of true probabilities. They concluded that we failed to demonstrate that naive individuals can deal with true probabilities as opposed to natural frequencies. In this paper, we demonstrate that numbers of chances do represent probabilities, and that naive individuals do not confuse numbers of chances with frequencies. We conclude that there is no evidence for the claim that natural frequencies have a special cognitive status, and the evolutionary argument that the human mind is unable to deal with probabilities.     

What's different in second-language processing? Evidence from event-related brain potentials

German sentences which were either correct, contained a selectional restriction violation, or a word category violation were presented auditorily to 16 native speakers of German (L1 group) and to 16 native speakers of Russian, who had learned German after the age of 10 (L2 group). Semantic violations elicited an N400 effect for both groups, but with a reduced amplitude and a longer peak latency in the L2 group. Compared to correct sentences, sentences with a phrase structure violation elicited an early anterior negativity followed by a broad centro-parietal positivity in native speakers. By contrast, there was no differential modulation of the early anterior negativity in the L2 group. A late positivity was also elicited in the second language learners, but it was slightly delayed compared to that shown by native speakers. This pattern is discussed in terms of different degrees of automaticity with respect to the subprocesses involved in sentence comprehension.     

Completeness and Decidability Results for Some Propositional Modal Logics Containing “Actually” Operators

The addition of actually operators to modal languages allows us to capture important inferential behaviours which cannot be adequately captured in logics formulated in simpler languages. Previous work on modal logics containing actually operators has concentrated entirely upon extensions of KT5 and has employed a particular model-theoretic treatment of them. This paper proves completeness and decidability results for a range of normal and nonnormal but quasi-normal propositional modal logics containing actually operators, the weakest of which are conservative extensions of K, using a novel generalisation of the standard semantics.     

Errors in subtractions: judged and observed frequencies

In a first study 10 adults, aged 24-44 years, solved all 105 subtraction problems in the form M - N = , where 0 < or = M < or = 13, 0 < or = N < or = 13 and N < or = M. Each participant solved every problem 10 times and in total there were 10 500 answers. Answers, response latencies and errors were registered. Retrospective verbal reports were also given, indicating how a solution was reached: (1) via a (conscious) reconstructive cognitive process or (2) via an (unconscious) reproductive (retrieval) process. The participants made 291 errors (2.8%) when solving the subtractions in study 1. The rate of self-correction was very high, 92%. In a second study 27 undergraduate students estimated overall error rates, including self-corrected errors for the 105 subtraction problems used in the first study. Judged and actual error rates were compared. The participants systematically underestimated error rates for error prone problems and overestimated error rates for error free problems. The participants were fairly accurate when they predicted problems that were most error prone, with a hit rate of 0.67 for the (18) problems predicted as the most error prone ones. In contrast, predictions of which problems were error free were very poor with a hit rate of only 0.20 of the problems predicted as error free really having no errors in study 1. The correlation between judged error rates and frequencies for actually made errors was 0.69 for answers belonging to reconstructive solutions. In contrast, there was no significant correlation between judged and actual error rates at all for retrieved solutions, possibly reflecting the inaccessibility to consciousness of quick retrieval processes.     

Truth as Translation – Part B

This is the second part of a paper dealing with truth and translation. In Part A a revised version of Tarski's Convention T has been presented, which explicitly refers to a translation mapping from the object language to the metalanguage; the vague notion of a translation has been replaced by a precise definition. At the end of Part A it has been shown that interpreted languages exist, which allow for vicious self-reference but which nevertheless contain their own truth predicate – this is possible if truth is based on a nonstandard translation mapping. However, this result has only been proved for languages without quantifiers. In Part B we now extend the result to first-order languages, and we show that this can be done in three different ways. In each case, the addition of a truth predicate to an interpreted language with a high degree of expressiveness leads to changes in the ontology of the language.     

Kripke Models,Distributive Lattices,and Medvedev Degrees

We define a variant of the standard Kripke semantics for intuitionistic logic, motivated by the connection between constructive logic and the Medvedev lattice. We show that while the new semantics is still complete, it gives a simple and direct correspondence between Kripke models and algebraic structures such as factors of the Medvedev lattice. Presented by Daniele Mundici     

A Semantics for Means-end Relations

There has been considerable work on practical reasoning in artificial intelligence and also in philosophy. Typically, such reasoning includes premises regarding means–end relations. A clear semantics for such relations is needed in order to evaluate proposed syllogisms. In this paper, we provide a formal semantics for means–end relations, in particular for necessary and sufficient means–end relations. Our semantics includes a non-monotonic conditional operator, so that related practical reasoning is naturally defeasible. This work is primarily an exercise in conceptual analysis, aimed at clarifying and eventually evaluating existing theories of practical reasoning (pending a similar analysis regarding desires, intentions and other relevant concepts). “They were in conversation without speaking. They didn’t need to speak. They just changed reality so that they had spoken.” Terry Pratchett, Reaper Man     

Distinguishing indeterminate belief from “risk-averse” preferences

I focus my discussion on the well-known Ellsberg paradox. I find good normative reasons for incorporating non-precise belief, as represented by sets of probabilities, in an Ellsberg decision model. This amounts to forgoing the completeness axiom of expected utility theory. Provided that probability sets are interpreted as genuinely indeterminate belief (as opposed to “imprecise” belief), such a model can moreover make the “Ellsberg choices” rationally permissible. Without some further element to the story, however, the model does not explain how an agent may come to have unique preferences for each of the Ellsberg options. Levi (1986, Hard choices: Decision making under unresolved conflict. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press) holds that the extra element amounts to innocuous secondary “risk” or security considerations that are used to break ties when more than one option is rationally permissible. While I think a lexical choice rule of this kind is very plausible, I argue that it involves a greater break with xpected utility theory than mere violation of the ordering axiom.     

Quantum sortal predicates

Sortal predicates have been associated with a counting process, which acts as a criterion of identity for the individuals they correctly apply to. We discuss in what sense certain types of predicates suggested by quantum physics deserve the title of ‘sortal’ as well, although they do not characterize either a process of counting or a criterion of identity for the entities that fall under them. We call such predicates ‘quantum-sortal predicates’ and, instead of a process of counting, to them is associated a ‘criterion of cardinality’. After their general characterization, it is discussed how these predicates can be formally described. To Patrick Suppes on his 80th birthday.     

中西医结合治疗骨折的临床思维方法

骨科医生在骨折治疗中需要科学的方法论指导.系统论的思想应用于中西医结合治疗骨折,它能从人体的总体出发,在"动与静"、"筋与骨"、"内与外"、"人与物"四对矛盾的相互作用中,揭示损伤的性质和骨折愈合的规律,有助于获得骨折的最佳治疗原则,有助于提高认识水平和实践能力.