基于语料库统计的“音-形”激活概率及加工机制

为了了解心理词典中语音与汉字的联结情况以及从音到形的加工机制,研究首先计算出了基于语料库统计的“音-形”激活概率(某个音节激活其对应汉字的概率),并通过一个听写实验来验证这种激活概率是否反映实际加工中的激活情况。结果证明基于语料统计得到的“音-形”激活概率基本可以预测实际的“音-形”激活情况,表现为:“音-形”激活概率越高的汉字被激活的概率和强度越高,并且有明显的优势字效应; 该统计概率具有可独立于其他影响因素的预测功能。     

Prime and probability: causal knowledge affects inferential and predictive effects on self-agency experiences

Experiences of having caused a certain outcome may arise from motor predictions based on action–outcome probabilities and causal inferences based on pre-activated outcome representations. However, when and how both indicators combine to affect such self-agency experiences is still unclear. Based on previous research on prediction and inference effects on self-agency, we propose that their (combined) contribution crucially depends on whether people have knowledge about the causal relation between actions and outcomes that is relevant to subsequent self-agency experiences. Therefore, we manipulated causal knowledge that was either relevant or irrelevant by varying the probability of co-occurrence (50% or 80%) of specific actions and outcomes. Afterwards, we measured self-agency experiences in an action–outcome task where outcomes were primed or not. Results showed that motor prediction only affected self-agency when relevant actions and outcomes were learned to be causally related. Interestingly, however, inference effects also occurred when no relevant causal knowledge was acquired.     

Proto-Semantics for Positive Free Logic

This paper presents a bivalent extensional semantics for positive free logic without resorting to the philosophically questionable device of using models endowed with a separate domain of non-existing objects. The models here introduced have only one (possibly empty) domain, and a partial reference function for the singular terms (that might be undefined at some arguments). Such an approach provides a solution to an open problem put forward by Lambert, and can be viewed as supplying a version of parametrized truth non unlike the notion of truth at world found in modal logic. A model theory is developed, establishing compactness, interpolation (implying a strong form of Beth definability), and completeness (with respect to a particular axiomatization).     

On Intermediate Predicate Logics of some Finite Kripke Frames,I. Levelwise Uniform Trees

An intermediate predicate logic L is called finite iff it is characterized by a finite partially ordered set M, i.e., iff L is the logic of the class of all predicate Kripke frames based on M. In this paper we study axiomatizability of logics of this kind. Namely, we consider logics characterized by finite trees M of a certain type (levelwise uniform trees) and establish the finite axiomatizability criterion for this case.     

Effects of reinforcer probability, delay, and response requirements on the choices of rats and pigeons: possible species differences

In Experiment 1 with rats, a left lever press led to a 5-s delay and then a possible reinforcer. A right lever press led to an adjusting delay and then a certain reinforcer. This delay was adjusted over trials to estimate an indifference point, or a delay at which the two alternatives were chosen about equally often. Indifference points increased as the probability of reinforcement for the left lever decreased. In some conditions with a 20% chance of food, a light above the left lever was lit during the 5-s delay on all trials, but in other conditions, the light was only lit on those trials that ended with food. Unlike previous results with pigeons, the presence or absence of the delay light on no-food trials had no effect on the rats' indifference points. In other conditions, the rats showed less preference for the 20% alternative when the time between trials was longer. In Experiment 2 with rats, fixed-interval schedules were used instead of simple delays, and the presence or absence of the fixed-interval requirement on no-food trials had no effect on the indifference points. In Experiment 3 with rats and Experiment 4 with pigeons, the animals chose between a fixed-ratio 8 schedule that led to food on 33% of the trials and an adjusting-ratio schedule with food on 100% of the trials. Surprisingly, the rats showed less preference for the 33% alternative in conditions in which the ratio requirement was omitted on no-food trials. For the pigeons, the presence or absence of the ratio requirement on no-food trials had little effect. The results suggest that there may be differences between rats and pigeons in how they respond in choice situations involving delayed and probabilistic reinforcers.     

Conditional Probability and Defeasible Inference

We offer a probabilistic model of rational consequence relations (Lehmann and Magidor, 1990) by appealing to the extension of the classical Ramsey–Adams test proposed by Vann McGee in (McGee, 1994). Previous and influential models of non-monotonic consequence relations have been produced in terms of the dynamics of expectations (Gärdenfors and Makinson, 1994; Gärdenfors, 1993).Expectation is a term of art in these models, which should not be confused with the notion of expected utility. The expectations of an agent are some form of belief weaker than absolute certainty. Our model offers a modified and extended version of an account of qualitative belief in terms of conditional probability, first presented in (van Fraassen, 1995). We use this model to relate probabilistic and qualitative models of non-monotonic relations in terms of expectations. In doing so we propose a probabilistic model of the notion of expectation. We provide characterization results both for logically finite languages and for logically infinite, but countable, languages. The latter case shows the relevance of the axiom of countable additivity for our probability functions. We show that a rational logic defined over a logically infinite language can only be fully characterized in terms of finitely additive conditional probability. The research of both authors was supported in part by a grant from NSF, and, for Parikh, also by support from the research foundation of CUNY.     

The precise time course of lexical activation: MEG measurements of the effects of frequency, probability, and density in lexical decision

Visually presented letter strings consistently yield three MEG response components: the M170, associated with letter-string processing (Tarkiainen, Helenius, Hansen, Cornelissen, & Salmelin, 1999); the M250, affected by phonotactic probability, (Pylkk?nen, Stringfellow, & Marantz, 2002); and the M350, responsive to lexical frequency (Embick, Hackl, Schaeffer, Kelepir, & Marantz, 2001). Pylkk?nen et al. found evidence that the M350 reflects lexical activation prior to competition among phonologically similar words. We investigate the effects of lexical and sublexical frequency and neighborhood density on the M250 and M350 through orthogonal manipulation of phonotactic probability, density, and frequency. The results confirm that probability but not density affects the latency of the M250 and M350; however, an interaction between probability and density on M350 latencies suggests an earlier influence of neighborhoods than previously reported.     

Algebraic Kripke Sheaf Semantics for Non-Classical Predicate Logics

In so-called Kripke-type models, each sentence is assigned either to true or to false at each possible world. In this setting, every possible world has the two-valued Boolean algebra as the set of truth values. Instead, we take a collection of algebras each of which is attached to a world as the set of truth values at the world, and obtain an extended semantics based on the traditional Kripke-type semantics, which we call here the algebraic Kripke semantics. We introduce algebraic Kripke sheaf semantics for super-intuitionistic and modal predicate logics, and discuss some basic properties. We can state the Gödel-McKinsey-Tarski translation theorem within this semantics. Further, we show new results on super-intuitionistic predicate logics. We prove that there exists a continuum of super-intuitionistic predicate logics each of which has both of the disjunction and existence properties and moreover the same propositional fragment as the intuitionistic logic.     

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon.     

Interval estimation for the intraclass correlation in dirichlet-multinomial data

When the underlying distribution is discrete with a limited number of categories, methods for interval estimation of the intraclass correlation which assume normality are theoretically inadequate for use. On the basis of large sample theory, this paper develops an asymptotic closed-form interval estimate of the intraclass correlation for the case where there is a natural score associated with each category. This paper employs Monte Carlo simulation to demonstrate that when the underlying intraclass correlation is large, the traditional interval estimator which assumes normality can be misleading. We find that when the number of classes is 20, the interval estimator proposed here can generally perform reasonably well in a variety of situations. This paper further notes that the proposed interval estimator is invariant with respect to a linear transformation. When the data are on a nominal scale, an extension of the proposed method to account for this case, as well as a discussion on the relationship between the intraclass correlation and a kappa-type measure defined here and on the limitation of the corresponding kappa-type estimator are given.The authors wish to thank the Editor, the Associate Editor, and the three referees for many valuable comments and suggestions to improve the clarity of this paper. The works for the first, the third, and the fourth authors were partially supported by grant #R01AR43025-01 from the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases.