Quantum Theory and the Resurrection of Jesus

Abstract :  Ever since the time of Hume it has been a truism that the worldview of empirical science, and Christian assertion of the resurrection of Jesus, are antithetical to each other. Yet post‐Newtonian science, and especially quantum theory, suggests the need for a reappraisal of this truism. This reappraisal will first examine the implications of the indeterminism of the quantum world, to consider the physical possibility of Jesus' resurrection. Second, an appraisal of the historical evidence will suggest the likelihood of Jesus' resurrection. Finally, I will consider some implications of all this for contemporary Christian thought.     

有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论

条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响,形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

On authenticity: the question of truth in construction and autobiography

Freud was occupied with the question of truth and its verification throughout his work. He looked to archaeology for an evidence model to support his ideas on reconstruction. He also referred to literature regarding truth in reconstruction, where he saw shifts between historical fact and invention, and detected such swings in his own case histories. In his late work Freud pondered over the impossibility of truth in reconstruction by juxtaposing truth with ‘probability’. Developments on the role of fantasy and myth in reconstruction and contemporary debates over objectivity have increasingly highlighted the question of ‘truth’ in psychoanalysis. I will argue that ‘authenticity’ is a helpful concept in furthering the discussion over truth in reconstruction. Authenticity denotes that which is genuine, trustworthy and emotionally accurate in a reconstruction, as observed within the immediacy of the analyst/patient interaction. As authenticity signifies genuineness in a contemporary context its origins are verifiable through the analyst’s own observations of the analytic process itself. Therefore, authenticity is about the likelihood and approximation of historical truth rather than its certainty. In that respect it links with Freud’s musings over ‘probability’. Developments on writing ‘truths’ in autobiography mirror those in reconstruction, and lend corroborative support from another source.     

条件推理的条件概率模型述评

该文从理论模型和实验范式两个方面对Oaksford等人提出的条件推理概率模型作了综合评述,并充分肯定该模型将演绎推理与归纳推理结合起来进行研究对推理心理学的发展所作出的重要贡献。     

Testing boundary conditions for the conjunction fallacy: effects of response mode, conceptual focus, and problem type

Two experiments used within-subject designs to examine how conjunction errors depend on the use of (1) choice versus estimation tasks, (2) probability versus frequency language, and (3) conjunctions of two likely events versus conjunctions of likely and unlikely events. All problems included a three-option format verified to minimize misinterpretation of the base event. In both experiments, conjunction errors were reduced when likely events were conjoined. Conjunction errors were also reduced for estimations compared with choices, with this reduction greater for likely conjuncts, an interaction effect. Shifting conceptual focus from probabilities to frequencies did not affect conjunction error rates. Analyses of numerical estimates for a subset of the problems provided support for the use of three general models by participants for generating estimates. Strikingly, the order in which the two tasks were carried out did not affect the pattern of results, supporting the idea that the mode of responding strongly determines the mode of thinking about conjunctions and hence the occurrence of the conjunction fallacy. These findings were evaluated in terms of implications for rationality of human judgment and reasoning.     

Dissimilarity cumulation theory in arc-connected spaces

This paper continues the development of the Dissimilarity Cumulation theory and its main psychological application, Universal Fechnerian Scaling [Dzhafarov, E.N and Colonius, H. (2007). Dissimilarity Cumulation theory and subjective metrics. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 51, 290-304]. In arc-connected spaces the notion of a chain length (the sum of the dissimilarities between the chain’s successive elements) can be used to define the notion of a path length, as the limit inferior of the lengths of chains converging to the path in some well-defined sense. The class of converging chains is broader than that of converging inscribed chains. Most of the fundamental results of the metric-based path length theory (additivity, lower semicontinuity, etc.) turn out to hold in the general dissimilarity-based path length theory. This shows that the triangle inequality and symmetry are not essential for these results, provided one goes beyond the traditional scheme of approximating paths by inscribed chains. We introduce the notion of a space with intermediate points which generalizes (and specializes to when the dissimilarity is a metric) the notion of a convex space in the sense of Menger. A space is with intermediate points if for any distinct there is a different point such that (where D is dissimilarity). In such spaces the metric G induced by D is intrinsic: coincides with the infimum of lengths of all arcs connecting to In Universal Fechnerian Scaling D stands for either of the two canonical psychometric increments and (ψ denoting discrimination probability). The choice between the two makes no difference for the notions of arc-connectedness, convergence of chains and paths, intermediate points, and other notions of the Dissimilarity Cumulation theory.     

Kaufmann on the Probabilities of Conditionals

Kaufmann has recently argued that the thesis according to which the probability of an indicative conditional equals the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent under certain specifiable circumstances deviates from intuition. He presents a method for calculating the probability of a conditional that does seem to give the intuitively correct result under those circumstances. However, the present paper shows that Kaufmann’s method is inconsistent in that it may lead one to assign different probabilities to a single conditional at the same time.     

意见收敛定理与休谟问题

意见收敛定理是主观主义概率论的一条重要定理,它表明随着证据的增加,验前概率的主观性将被验后概率的客观性所代替。意见收敛定理被看作主观概率的动态合理性原则,因而被用来解决休谟问题,即归纳合理性问题。然而,哈金有说服力地表明,意见收敛定理证明的是条件概率Pr（h／e）的收敛,而不是验后概率Pre（h）的收敛。主观主义概率论暗中接受的一个等式是：Pre（h）=Pr（h／e）,通常称之为“条件化规则”。这样,归纳法的合理性问题变成条件化规则的合理性问题。为此,本文提出一个新的合理性原则,即“最少初始概率原则”,将它同“局部合理性”观念结合起来便可为条件化规则的合理性加以辩护。     

Logics with the Qualitative Probability Operator

The paper presents several strongly complete axiomatizationsof qualitative probability within the framework of probabilisticlogic. We show that in the proposed semantics qualitative probabilitiesare characterized by probability functions, so they also arecomparative probabilities.