System JLZ – rational default reasoning by minimal ranking constructions

We present a powerful quasi-probabilistic default formalism for graded defaults based on a well-motivated canonical ranking construction procedure, System JLZ. It implements the minimal construction paradigm and verifies the major inference principles and inheritance desiderata, including rational monotony for propositions and structured cumulativity for default conditionals. With help from a structured ranking semantics for defaults, it also avoids some drawbacks of semi-qualitative entropy maximization and other competing accounts.     

时间洞察力对拖延行为的影响机制:时间折扣的中介作用

采用津巴多时间洞察力量表（ZTPI）、一般拖延量表（GPS）和跨期选择任务,考察了时间洞察力对拖延行为的影响,并从时间折扣视角检验了时间洞察力影响拖延行为的中介机制。结果表明（1）对553名大学生的测量数据进行逐步回归和优势分析,结果表明："未来"时间洞察力对拖延行为具有良好的预测力,解释率最高;（2）对121名大学生的测量数据进行中介分析,结果表明：时间折扣在时间洞察力影响拖延行为过程中起着中介作用。这些结果说明,"未来"时间洞察力对拖延行为具有较好的预测作用,而且未来时间洞察力对拖延行为的影响可能是通过时间折扣为中介实现的。     

心理研究中引入贝叶斯统计推断的必要性、应用思路与领域

本文从科学范式演变和概率统计推断特征分析出发,就贝叶斯统计推断引入心理学的必要性、怎么应用、在哪些领域应用集中进行了论述。首先在分析科学范式演进各阶段统计推断任务需要、经典的频率概率统计推断不足基础上,得出科学范式处于危机和革命阶段时需要对相关理论做可信度检验。然后,在介绍贝叶斯定理及其统计推断的基础上,进一步分析了贝叶斯推断能解决理论可信度的多种假设检验情景。最后本文还就贝叶斯统计推断在心理学理论争鸣与建构、心理技术产品开发与评估具体领域应用做了分析。     

拖延的决策模型

拖延是指尽管预见到该行为会带来不利后果,人们仍自愿推迟开始或完成某一计划好的行为。先前的研究对拖延的类型、影响因素、成因以及干预等方面进行了广泛的探讨,然而拖延的决策过程——"现在做还是以后做?"认知机制还非常不清楚。因此,本文提出拖延决策模型试图从三方面阐明"现在做还是以后做?"的决策机制:首先,拖延动机和不拖延动机的斗争是决定是否拖延的根本;其次,拖延动机的斗争可以进一步简化为任务负性过程和任务正性结果的权衡;最后,主动推迟任务使负性过程发生延迟折扣是拖延的核心目的。拖延决策模型不仅有助于探明拖延的核心认知机制,也能够帮助预测拖延行为的发生及解释各种影响因素的作用机制,因此未来的研究可以借此整合一个从拖延的核心发生机制到各种影响因素的理论系统。     

时间洞察力对跨期选择偏好的预测

利用津巴多时间洞察力问卷,采用跨期选择经典范式,考察“现在享乐型”和“未来定向型”两类时间洞察力个体在跨期选择上的偏好,从人格特质角度来探究跨期选择的认知机制。结果发现：(1)现在享乐定向组的延迟折扣率显著高于未来定向组;(2)未来定向组在时间洞察力量表“未来维度”得分与延迟折扣率显著负相关。这说明时间洞察力对个体延迟折扣率具有预测作用,支持了跨期选择的时间感知基础模型。     

An approach to combine the logistic threshold model of psychophysics with the Bradley-Terry-Luce models of choice theory

The paper presents a straightforward extension of the Bradley-Terry-Luce model (BTL model) that can be derived from the logistic threshold model of psychophysics which assumes that psychometric functions are logistic probability functions. It is shown that (under weak side conditions) the logistic threshold model is a submodel of the extended BTL model. Moreover, representation and uniqueness theorems are proven that provide some evidence that the extended BTL model is a useful and widely applicable generalization of the ordinary BTL model. Finally, the logistic shape of the psychometric function is derived from axioms about binary choice probabilities. This characterization of the logistic threshold model can replace goodness of fit tests for the logistic probability distribution.     

Psychophysics without physics: extension of Fechnerian scaling from continuous to discrete and discrete-continuous stimulus spaces

The computation of subjective (Fechnerian) distances from discrimination probabilities involves cumulation of appropriately transformed psychometric increments along smooth arcs (in continuous stimulus spaces) or chains of stimuli (in discrete spaces). In a space where any two stimuli that are each other's points of subjective equality are given identical physical labels, psychometric increments are positive differences ψ(x,y)-ψ(x,x) and ψ(y,x)-ψ(x,x), where x≠y and ψ is the probability of judging two stimuli different. In continuous stimulus spaces the appropriate monotone transformation of these increments (called overall psychometric transformation) is determined uniquely in the vicinity of zero, and its extension to larger values of its argument is immaterial. In discrete stimulus spaces, however, Fechnerian distances critically depend on this extension. We show that if overall psychometric transformation is assumed (A) to be the same for a sufficiently rich class of discrete stimulus spaces, (B) to ensure the validity of the Second Main Theorem of Fechnerian Scaling in this class of spaces, and (C) to agree in the vicinity of zero with one of the possible transformations in continuous spaces, then this transformation can only be identity. This result is generalized to the broad class of “discrete-continuous” stimulus spaces, of which continuous and discrete spaces are proper subclasses.     

命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响

选取3个具体内容的条件命题作为实验材料,以小四、初一、高一、大三的学生为被试,探讨了命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响机制及其发展特点。结果表明:(1)对同一年级而言,不同内容的条件命题的相同推理(MP、MT、DA、AC)之间表现出显著的差异;对不同年级而言,相同内容的条件命题的四种推理之间也存在显著的差异。(2)青少年的条件推理过程似乎是一种基于对事件发生概率估计的直觉判断,这一判断过程主要取决于个体知识经验的增长和主体认知水平的提高,而用形式逻辑的标准来衡量个体条件推理能力的高低似乎并不妥当。     

Effects of acute and chronic flunitrazepam on delay discounting in pigeons

Delay to delivery of a reinforcer can decrease responding for that reinforcer and increase responding for smaller reinforcers that are available concurrently and delivered without delay; acute administration of drugs can alter responding for large, delayed reinforcers, although the impact of chronic treatment on delay discounting is not well understood. In this experiment, the effects of repeated administration of the benzodiazepine flunitrazepam were studied in 6 pigeons responding on one key to receive food that was delivered immediately and on a second key to receive a larger amount of food that was delivered following delays which increased across a single session. Pigeons responded predominantly for the large reinforcer when there were no delays and when delays were short; however, as delays increased, responding for the large reinforcer decreased. Acutely, flunitrazepam (0.32, 1.0 and 3.2 mg/kg) dose-dependently increased responding for the large reinforcer, shifting the discounting curve rightward and upward. Repeated administration of flunitrazepam (0.32, 1.0 and 3.2 mg/kg, each for six sessions, separated by one session during which vehicle was administered) did not markedly alter its effects on responding for the large reinforcer, indicating that the development of tolerance to this effect of flunitrazepam is modest under these conditions.     

The ecological rationality of delay tolerance: insights from capuchin monkeys

Both human and non-human animals often face decisions between options available at different times, and the capacity of delaying gratification has usually been considered one of the features distinguishing humans from other animals. However, this characteristic can widely vary across individuals, species, and types of task and it is still unclear whether it is accounted for by phylogenetic relatedness, feeding ecology, social structure, or metabolic rate. To disentangle these hypotheses, we evaluated temporal preferences in capuchin monkeys, South-American primates that, despite splitting off from human lineage approximately 35 million years ago, show striking behavioural analogies with the great apes. Then, we compared capuchins’ performance with that of the other primate species tested so far with the same procedure. Overall, capuchins showed a delay tolerance significantly higher than closely related species, such as marmosets and tamarins, and comparable to that shown by great apes. Capuchins’ tool use abilities might explain their comparatively high preference for delayed options in inter-temporal choices. Moreover, as in humans, capuchin females showed a greater delay tolerance than males, possibly because of their less opportunistic foraging style. Thus, our results shed light on the evolutionary origins of self-control supporting explanations of delay tolerance in terms of feeding ecology.