Looking back versus looking ahead: framing of time and work at different stages of a project

Progress on a well‐defined project can be described along a task dimension in terms of amount done, or as amount of work still to be completed. Time‐limited projects can also be described on a temporal dimension in terms of time spent versus time left. Five experiments are reported showing that such frames have predictable implications for speakers as well as for listeners: Statements by a team leader about time spent and work left are perceived as suggestions to “hurry up,” whereas complementary statements about work done and time left indicate that the team can take it more easy. The first set of statements further implies that the team is behind schedule, whereas the last two statements suggest that the team is ahead of the plan. In line with this, speakers preferred work done and time left statements when they were ahead of schedule, but not when they were behind. “Hurry up” and “behind schedule” interpretations were also shown to be dependent upon stage, being more prominent in the final stages than during the initial stages of a project. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Associated Factors of Suicide Among University Students: Importance of Family Environment

The aim in this study was to underline the importance of family environment as a significant associate of suicide probability among university students. For this aim 226 Turkish university students completed Suicide Probability Scale, Family Environment Questionnaire, Beck Depression Inventory, and Positive and Negative Affect Scale. As a result of the formulated regression analysis, after controlling for the 51% of the total variance accounted for by the control variables (i.e., gender, age, living with family versus away from family, and Grade Point Averages) and mood related variables (i.e., depressive symptoms, and positive and negative affect), family cohesion still emerged as a significant associate of the suicide probability. These findings underline the importance of family relations as a risk factor of suicide among university students.This work has been supported by the Turkish Academy of Sciences, in the framework of the Young Scientist Award Program. (TG-TUBA-GEBİP/2002-1-11).     

主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响

用贝叶斯推理问题为实验材料,探讨了主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响。结果表明,当估计的事件与主体有关时,被试对消极事件概率估计较低,对积极事件概率估计值;当估计的事件与主体无关时,被试对消极事件和积极事件的概率估计无显著差异。反应时分析表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计比对积极事件的概率估计时间显著地长,当消极事件与主体有关时概率估计时间就更长;而对积极事件的概率估计,与主体有关和与主体无关时反应时差异不显著。这表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计(特别是消极事件与己有关时)更为慎重。     

Framing experts' (dis)agreements about uncertain environmental events

Agreements and disagreements between expert statements influence lay people's beliefs. But few studies have examined what is perceived as a disagreement. We report six experiments where people rated agreement between pairs of probabilistic statements about environmental events, attributed to two different experts or to the same expert at two different points in time. The statements differed in frame, by focusing on complementary outcomes (45% probability that smog will have negative health effects vs. 55% probability that it will not have such effects), in probability level (45% vs. 55% probability of negative effects), or in both respects. Opposite frames strengthened disagreement when combined with different probability levels. Approximate probabilities can be “framed” in yet another way by indicating reference values they are “over” or “under”. Statements that use different directional verbal terms (over vs. under 50%) indicated greater disagreement than statements with the same directional term but different probability levels (over 50% vs. over 70%). Framing and directional terms similarly affected consistency judgments when both statements were issued by the same expert at different occasions. The effect of framing on perceived agreement was significant for medium (10 and 20 percentage points) differences between probabilities, whereas the effect of directional term was stable for numerical differences up to 40 percentage points. To emphasize agreement between different estimates, they should be framed in the same way. To accentuate disagreements or changes of opinion, opposite framings should be used.     

What shapes the probability weighting function? Influence of affect,numeric competencies,and information formats

Research suggests that people are less sensitive to variations in probability in affect‐rich compared with affect‐poor risky choices. This effect is modeled by a more curved probability weighting function (PWF). We investigated the role of different numeric competencies and the effectiveness of several intervention strategies to decrease this affect‐laden probability distortion. In two experiments, we manipulated the affect‐richness of a risky prospect. In Experiment 1 (N = 467), we measured numeracy and symbolic‐number mapping (i.e., the ability to accurately map numbers onto their underlying magnitudes). The affect‐based manipulations showed the expected effects only in participants with more accurate symbolic‐number mapping, who also reported more differentiated emotional reactions to the various probabilities and displayed more linear PWFs. Instructions to focus on the probability information decreased probability distortion and revealed differences in the use of probability information on the basis of symbolic‐number mapping ability. In Experiment 2 (N = 417), we manipulated the format in which the probability information was presented: using visual aids versus no visual aids and a positive frame (e.g., one person wins) versus combined frame (e.g., one person wins and 99 persons do not win). The affect‐based manipulations had no effect but both the visual aids and combined frame decreased probability distortion. Whereas affect‐richness manipulations require further research, results suggest that probability weighting is at least partially driven by the inability to translate numerical information into meaningful and well‐calibrated affective intuitions. Visual aids and simple framing manipulations designed to calibrate these intuitions can help decision makers extract the gist and increase sensitivity to probabilities.     

A survey on adverse incidents in legal psychology studies: Reflections on ethics review

Ethics committees (ECs) regulate research activities to maintain research participants' autonomy and to protect them from harm and injury. No research to date attempted to establish how much risk is involved in social‐science research. Using a survey approach, we set out to estimate the risk of being involved in an incident for research participants in legal psychology and assessed researchers' views of ECs. Fifty‐nine of 188 respondents (31%) stated that they had experienced one or more incidents with a participant. The estimated risk of being involved in an incident was one to three per 10,000 participants, which according to biomedical standards defines a rare risk. Although some researchers were satisfied with their EC, the general tenor was one of discontent due to conservative decision‐making, lacking expertise, and overstepping demands. Whether ECs succeed in protecting participants from loss of autonomy, harm and injury are unknown but are open to empirical research.     

Do process simulations during episodic future thinking enhance the reduction of delay discounting for middle income participants and those living in poverty?

Two studies examined whether episodic future thinking (EFT; pre‐experiencing future events) reduces discounting of future rewards (DD). No studies have investigated whether process simulations (i.e., simulating the process of executing a future event) amplify EFT's reduction of DD. Study 1 examined the effect of incorporating process simulations into EFT (N = 42, M_age = 43.27; 91% female, family income = $75,976) using a 2 × 2 factorial design with type of episodic thinking (process, nonprocess/general) and temporal perspective (EFT, episodic recent thinking) as between‐subjects factors. Study 2 replicated Study 1 in a sample of adults living in poverty (N = 36; M_age = 38.44, 88% female; family income = $25,625). The results of both studies showed EFT reduced DD, but process‐oriented EFT did not amplify the effect of EFT. Our findings suggest the key ingredient in EFT's effect on DD is self‐projection into the future. This was also the first study to show EFT improves DD in a sample living in poverty.     

Waiting impulsivity: a distinctive feature of ADHD neuropsychology?

Impulsivity is a core feature of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It has been conceptualized in a number of different ways. In the current article, we examine how the new concept of “waiting impulsivity”, which refers to premature responding before a scheduled target appears, adds to our understanding of impulsivity in ADHD. Sixty children (8–12 years old; 30 ADHD; 30 typically developing controls) completed the 4-choice serial reaction time task, a measure of waiting impulsivity, alongside tasks measuring inhibitory control and temporal discounting and questionnaires measuring behavioral disorder symptoms, delay aversion, and various aspects of impulsivity. A multiple logistic regression model was used to explore the contribution of the primary task outcomes to predict group membership. Children with ADHD displayed more waiting impulsivity and less inhibitory control; they did not differ in temporal discounting. There was no correlation between waiting impulsivity and inhibitory control. Waiting impulsivity was correlated with parent-reported ratings of hyperactivity/impulsivity, inattention, oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), and conduct disorder (CD) and with self-reported delay aversion ratings. Only waiting impulsivity was a significant predictor of ADHD status. In conclusion, waiting impulsivity is distinct from inhibitory control deficits and predicts ADHD status independently of it. Future research needs to examine the relationship with delay aversion and ODD/CD more thoroughly.     

Delay discounting in the pigeon: In search of a magnitude effect

The magnitude effect, where larger outcomes are discounted proportionally less than smaller outcomes, is a well‐established phenomenon in delay discounting by human participants. To this point in the literature magnitude effects have not been reliably evidenced in nonhuman animals. , however, used a concurrent‐chains arrangement with pigeon and found evidence for a magnitude effect. Grace et al. suggested that in many delay discounting experimental arrangements with nonhuman animals (e.g., adjusting amount, adjusting delay) the organism is not given the opportunity to directly compare outcomes of different sizes. They suggest that because of the lack of direct comparison it is difficult for the organism to determine the relative size of each outcome, which in turn mutes the effect of the amount differences between outcomes. As a test of this “comparison hypothesis,” the present experiment was conducted to assess whether the magnitude effect would be evidenced in pigeon when using an adjusting amount procedure where outcomes of different amounts were presented proximally. In the present arrangement, pigeons were presented two choice panels in an operant chamber where each panel was associated with an independent adjusting amount delay discounting task, but with differing outcome amounts (i.e., a 32‐food pellet panel and an 8‐food pellet panel). In this arrangement the choice panels alternated in their availability within a session from trial block to trial block. The present findings indicate no reliable effect of amount, even when the outcomes were proximal and thus readily comparable. This result suggests that the lack of magnitude effect is not driven by the organism's ability to compare the difference in amount between choice alternatives.     

适应性时间管理：死亡意识对时间知觉和跨期决策的影响

死亡意识是个体对自身死亡必然性的认识; 基于进化适应性的考量, 作者认为具有前瞻性的死亡意识作为人类特有的认知能力和个体生命史的终极坐标, 不仅可能引起恐惧感和防御反应, 更重要的是可以帮助人们做出适应性的时间管理。据此推论, 死亡意识的启动会加强人们对时间有限性的关注, 体验出更强的时间流逝感, 影响人们对时间的评估, 以及人们对不同时间点的成本与收益进行权衡而做出的跨期决策。本研究采用死亡凸显范式启动死亡意识, 通过两个实验探讨了死亡意识、时间知觉和跨期决策三者之间的关系。结果发现, 死亡意识启动使被试低估时间距离, 并表现出较低的跨期决策延迟折扣率, 从而在较小的即时获益与更大的延迟的获益之间更为偏好未来导向的选项。进一步的分析显示, 时间知觉在死亡意识和跨期决策延迟折扣率之间起到部分中介变量的作用。以上的研究结果初步揭示了死亡意识在时间管理上的适应性价值。