有关条件推理中概率效应的实验研究

通过预备实验选取了四种不同条件概率的条件规则和四种不同前后件概率组合的条件规则作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,考察了两种概率因素(条件概率和前后件概率)对条件推理的演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)以及变通形式(四卡问题)的影响。结果表明,两种概率因素对四种条件推理的影响都非常显著,研究进一步证实了人们对四种推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率成正比的结论;但概率因素对四卡问题的解决影响不明显。     

Conditioning against the Grain

This paper discusses counterexamples to the thesis that the probabilities of conditionals are conditional probabilities. It is argued that the discrepancy is systematic and predictable, and that conditional probabilities are crucially involved in the apparently deviant interpretations. Furthermore, the examples suggest that such conditionals have a less prominent reading on which their probability is in fact the conditional probability, and that the two readings are related by a simple step of abductive inference. Central to the proposal is a distinction between causal and purely stochastic dependence between variables.     

Quantum Theory and the Resurrection of Jesus

Abstract :  Ever since the time of Hume it has been a truism that the worldview of empirical science, and Christian assertion of the resurrection of Jesus, are antithetical to each other. Yet post‐Newtonian science, and especially quantum theory, suggests the need for a reappraisal of this truism. This reappraisal will first examine the implications of the indeterminism of the quantum world, to consider the physical possibility of Jesus' resurrection. Second, an appraisal of the historical evidence will suggest the likelihood of Jesus' resurrection. Finally, I will consider some implications of all this for contemporary Christian thought.     

有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论

条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响,形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

问题启动对跨时选择的影响研究

本研究采用2×3混合实验设计,通过控制时间距离和表征的建构水平,对不同问题启动下的跨时选择进行对比研究。实验结果显示,问题启动是影响跨时选择的重要因素,不同问题启动下的未来结果价值折扣存在显著差异。Why问题启动使个体的时间距离敏感度降低,How问题启动使个体的时间距离敏感度提高。     

On authenticity: the question of truth in construction and autobiography

Freud was occupied with the question of truth and its verification throughout his work. He looked to archaeology for an evidence model to support his ideas on reconstruction. He also referred to literature regarding truth in reconstruction, where he saw shifts between historical fact and invention, and detected such swings in his own case histories. In his late work Freud pondered over the impossibility of truth in reconstruction by juxtaposing truth with ‘probability’. Developments on the role of fantasy and myth in reconstruction and contemporary debates over objectivity have increasingly highlighted the question of ‘truth’ in psychoanalysis. I will argue that ‘authenticity’ is a helpful concept in furthering the discussion over truth in reconstruction. Authenticity denotes that which is genuine, trustworthy and emotionally accurate in a reconstruction, as observed within the immediacy of the analyst/patient interaction. As authenticity signifies genuineness in a contemporary context its origins are verifiable through the analyst’s own observations of the analytic process itself. Therefore, authenticity is about the likelihood and approximation of historical truth rather than its certainty. In that respect it links with Freud’s musings over ‘probability’. Developments on writing ‘truths’ in autobiography mirror those in reconstruction, and lend corroborative support from another source.     

时间贴现的分段性

以延迟和相对延迟时间贴现的实验范式, 用选择法、匹配法确定价值主观相等点, 探讨时间贴现的分段性。三个实验和一个问卷调查发现, 时间贴现具有分段性。被试的时间贴现有三次显著变化, 表现为三个时段时间贴现心理状态的不同: 从现在到未来2周内规避损失、偏好风险、愿意短期等待, 从未来2周起直到未来10年采取非补偿性策略、需求与风险并重、愿意长期等待, 和从未来10年起直到未来50年规避风险、聊胜于无、不愿意等待。     

成瘾人群跨期选择的神经机制及干预方法

成瘾可分为物质成瘾和行为成瘾, 两类成瘾人群在跨期选择上都表现出高时间折扣率的缺陷, 但也有各自的特异性特征。成瘾人群跨期选择缺陷的神经基础主要集中在评估网络(腹内侧前额叶、纹状体、后扣带皮层等)、认知控制网络(前额叶皮层、前扣带皮层等)和预期想象网络(海马、杏仁核等); 可利用心理训练来改善成瘾人群跨期选择缺陷, 其干预方法包括工作记忆训练、预期想象训练、金钱管理指导等。未来研究应该从成瘾者跨期选择缺陷的认知机制、3个神经网络系统的交互作用机理、行为遗传学以及开发有效的干预方法等方面展开大量研究。     

降低决策冲动性的方法及其神经机制

大量实验研究显示, 成瘾患者、多动症患者和病态赌博者在决策中表现出冲动偏好。目前研究冲动性决策偏好的经典实验范式是延迟折扣任务。通过延迟折扣任务, 心理学家揭示了冲动性决策偏好的神经机制并构建了多种理论, 包括单一系统评价理论、双系统评价理论、自我控制理论和自我参照加工理论。基于这些理论, 已经发展出了多种降低决策冲动性的方法, 包括想象未来具体事件、工作记忆训练、预先承诺以及提高血液中葡萄糖水平, 其背后的神经机制是通过认知控制和价值表征理论来实现的。未来研究方向需集中于价值计算、价值系统和多体素模式分析(MVPA)在改善决策冲动性以及内在机制研究上的应用。     

条件推理的条件概率模型述评

该文从理论模型和实验范式两个方面对Oaksford等人提出的条件推理概率模型作了综合评述,并充分肯定该模型将演绎推理与归纳推理结合起来进行研究对推理心理学的发展所作出的重要贡献。