Missing the target: A reply to Koehler & Macchi (2009)

Koehler and Macchi 2009 criticize the experiments presented in Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes 2008 as being “virtually irrelevant” to exemplar cuing theory. This reply addresses that interpretation and argues that the experiments dealt with issues at the heart of the theory and provided evidence highly relevant to understand how people think about low‐probability events. The role of the ‘target’ in probabilistic statements is examined, highlighting the need for further theoretical and empirical clarification of the concept. The remaining specific criticisms raised in the commentary are discussed as well. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

小概率权重问题及其市场应用

探讨了决策制定中有关“小概率权重”的理论问题和市场应用问题。若干实验结果表明概率的权重大小不是绝对的,而是背景依赖的,在决策问题中价值对比降低或不存在时,小概率事件权重不太可能被高估。然而,对小概率的权重也会因决策人所处的目前状况有关,个体在财富状况等方面的差异会对小概率事件的赋权产生影响。实验结果还证明有关小概率权重问题的理论发现对彩票价格制定、保险费用确定以及选择有效的有奖促销策略具有重要的启示     

A PILOT STUDY OF NATURALLY OCCURRING HIGH‐PROBABILITY REQUEST SEQUENCES IN HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS

In the current study, the audiotapes from three hostage‐taking situations were analyzed. Hostage negotiator requests to the hostage taker were characterized as either high or low probability. The results suggested that hostage‐taker compliance to a hostage negotiator's low‐probability request was more likely when a series of complied‐with high‐probability requests preceded the low‐probability request. However, two of the three hostage‐taking situations ended violently; therefore, the implications of the high‐probability request sequence for hostage‐taking situations should be assessed in future research.     

Testing the Δ-∑ hypothesis in the suboptimal choice task: Same delta with different probabilities of reinforcement

In a concurrent-chain procedure, pigeons choose between 2 initial-link stimuli; one is followed by terminal link stimuli that signal reliably whether food will be delivered after a delay; the other is followed by terminal link stimuli that do not signal whether food will be delivered after the delay. Pigeons prefer the former alternative even when it yields a lower overall probability of food. Recently, we proposed the Delta-Sigma (∆-∑) hypothesis to explain the effect: Preference depends on the difference (∆) between the reinforcement probabilities associated with the terminal link stimuli, and the overall probability of reinforcement (∑) associated with the alternative. The hypothesis predicts that, for constant ∑, animals should prefer alternatives with greater ∆ values regardless of the specific probabilities of reinforcement that determine ∆. In 2 experiments, we tested this prediction by comparing a ∆ = .5 against a ∆ = 0 alternative, with the former obtained with different pairs of reinforcement probabilities across conditions. The results supported the hypothesis when the 2 probabilities defining ∆ were significantly greater than 0, but not when one of them was close to 0. The results challenge our theoretical accounts of suboptimal choice and the variables considered to determine pigeons’ preference.     

Money does not stink: Using unpleasant odors as stimulus material changes risky decision making

Odors are strong elicitors of affect, and they play an important role in guiding human behavior, such as avoiding fire or spoiled food. However, little is known about how risky decision making changes when stimuli are olfactory. We investigated this question in an experimental study of risky decision making with unpleasant odors and monetary losses in a fully incentivized task with real outcomes. Odor and monetary decisions were matched so that monetary losses corresponded to the amount of money participants were willing to pay to avoid smelling an odor. Hierarchical Bayesian analyses using prospect theory show that participants were less sensitive to probabilities when gambling with odors than when gambling with money. These results highlight the importance of taking the sensory modality into account when studying risky decision making.     

名词短语加工中个体量词通达的影响因素

“双系统”和“双向选择组合网络”理论认为,在汉语使用者的心理词典中存在名词系统和量词系统,两者之间存在双向选择关系。采用启动范式考察在名词短语产生和理解中量词的名词搭配量、名词的量词拥有量和量词-名词定配率对个体量词通达的影响。结果表明,量词的名词搭配量、名词的量词拥有量和量词-名词定配率显著地影响量词的词汇通达,量词和名词之间是双向选择关系。量词通达是直接通达和间接通达的有机结合。     

The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable or undesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.     

Probability estimation in poker: A qualified success for unaided judgment

Poker players make strategic decisions on the basis of imperfect information, which are informed by their assessment of the probability they will hold the best set of cards among all players at the conclusion of the hand. Exact mental calculations of this probability are impossible—therefore, players must use judgment to estimate their chances. In three studies, 69 moderately experienced poker players estimated the probability of obtaining the best cards among all players, based on the limited information that is known in the early stages of a hand. Although several of the conditions typically associated with well‐calibrated judgment did not apply, players' judgments were generally accurate. The correlation between judged and true probabilities was r > .8 for over five‐sixths of the participants, and when judgments were averaged across players and within hands this correlation was .96. Players slightly overestimated their chance of obtaining the best cards, mainly where this probability was low to moderate (<.7). Probability estimates were slightly too strongly related to the strength of the two cards that a player holds (known only to themselves), and insufficiently influenced by the number of opponents. Seemingly, players show somewhat insufficient regard for the cards that other players could be holding and the potential for opponents to acquire a strong hand. The results show that even when judgment heuristics are used to good effect in a complex probability estimation task, predictable errors can still be observed at the margins of performance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.