Why best cannot last: Cultural differences in predicting regression toward the mean

Four studies were conducted to investigate cultural differences in predicting and understanding regression toward the mean. We demonstrated, with tasks in such domains as athletic competition, health and weather, that Chinese are more likely than Canadians to make predictions that are consistent with regression toward the mean. In addition, Chinese are more likely than Canadians to choose a regression‐consistent explanation to account for regression toward the mean. The findings are consistent with cultural differences in lay theories about how people, objects and events develop over time.     

"Till destruction sicken": the catastrophe of mind in Macbeth

The author examines the tragedy of Macbeth from the vertex of its portrait of the effects of the hero's abandonment to the "blindest fury of destructiveness" (Freud, 1930, p. 121), using aspects of psychoanalytic thought to illuminate the theme. She affirms that Macbeth's immediate transformation in phantasy from loyal subject to future assassin threatens to flood his psyche with the uncontainable energy of destruction and thus to produce a psychic catastrophe. The remainder of the play is then examined as a representation of Macbeth's attempts to defend himself from that catastrophe: the only objects whose existence he can tolerate are those that cannot challenge his possession of the crown, which leads him to attempt to destroy all opposition. Since this is impossible, his alternative is to denude his mind of its perception of the reality in which the actions of others will inevitably produce future transformations which he is unable to control. The play's last soliloquy anticipates the final state, the repose of emptiness; it portrays a mind, emptied of emotion, looking at a world which it has denuded of meaning.     

北京市老年人的生活满意度及其影响因素

利用“北京市老龄化多维纵向研究”１９９２年调查资料,分析北京市城乡散居老人２５４３例６０岁以上老年人,对婚姻、子女关系、生活、经济、健康、住房、休闲安排、医疗八个方面的满意程度,并由八个方面的满意度综合计算了总体生活满意度。结果显示北京市老年人的总体生活满意度及八项分类的满意度在中上水平。多元回归分析表明,与总体生活满意度有显著性相关因素有１７个,居于前五位的是健康自评、家庭和睦、经济够用程度、心境和受教育水平。     

Haptic modality takes its time: Dynamic of activations of sensory modalities in perceptual and memory processes

Based on claims resulting from grounded cognition theory that perceptual and memory processes are using the same distributed systems, the present study investigated the temporal aspect of access to memory traces through haptic and auditory modalities. Unlike in the case of visual or auditory components, the perception of a vibrotactile component is more sequential in nature and therefore cannot be fully processed before the end of the signal. The present study explores the dynamic of components activation in a situation of audio‐vibrotactile asynchrony. We used a short‐term priming paradigm consisting of an association phase (between a vibration and sound) and a test phase testing priming effect of a vibrotactile stimulation on the processing of a target sound. Results showed an interference with a simultaneous processing and a facilitation with a sequential processing. The temporality process of perceptual components is also important at a memory level.     

Positive and negative affectivity,stress, and well-being in African-Americans: Initial demonstration of a polynomial regression and response surface methodology approach

Objective: The extent to which positive (PA) and negative (NA) affect conjointly impact well-being is not yet well understood. Additionally, research investigating the role of affectivity in maintaining well-being among ethnic and racial minorities is scant. The current research demonstrates how polynomial regression and response surface methodology (PR and RSM) may be used to better understand how PA and NA jointly influence stress and well-being.

Design: In Study 1, 291 African-American undergraduates (M_age = 22.91, SD = 6.91; 67% female) completed measures of affectivity and psychological well-being. In Study 2, a community sample of 117 African-Americans (M_age = 31.87, SD = 13.83; 69% female) completed affectivity measures and a laboratory-based social stressor task to assess links between affectivity and salivary cortisol reactivity.

Main outcome measures: Study 1 included life satisfaction, perceived stress and self-reported depressive symptoms. Study 2 included salivary cortisol reactivity.

Results: Across both studies, PA ascendency (i.e. high PA combined with low NA) was associated with better well-being, while NA ascendancy (i.e. high NA combined with low PA) was associated with poorer outcomes.

Conclusion: PR and RSM may provide new insight into the conjoint influence of PA and NA on health and well-being. We discuss potential implications for affectivity research, including race-related explorations.     

Ecological social capital does not predict geographical variance in increases in depression following the 2008 financial crisis

Research suggests that the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath were associated with an increase in mental health problems, but there has been little research into potential protective factors. Ecological social capital is a plausible candidate given evidence of its protective status following natural disasters. Pre-crisis area-level estimates of generalized trust and sense of belonging were computed from the 2004 to 2006 waves of the Living in Wales survey (N = 43,473) for 413 neighbourhoods in Wales, using multilevel regression with post-stratification, a technique for disaggregating survey data into small area estimates. Area estimates and the planned analysis were preregistered using Open Science Framework. Data (N = 180,462) from the Welsh Health Survey (2003–2015) were then used to model whether social capital was protective against depression in general and whether it moderated the increase in depression prevalence, associated with the financial crisis. Depression rates increased post-crisis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.271), and trust was a protective factor against depression (OR = 0.775). The hypothesized interaction, however, was not significant (OR = 1.033), nor was sense of belonging (OR = 0.934) or its interaction with the crisis (OR = 1.024). Although ecological generalized trust appears to be a protective factor against depression, it did not buffer against the mental health impact of the financial crisis.     

Exploring multi-homing behavior of ride-sourcing drivers via real-world multiple platforms data

Multi-homing behavior refers to the behavior that ride-sourcing drivers simultaneously register and sequentially provide services on multiple ride-sourcing platforms. The multi-homing behavior of ride-sourcing drivers significantly impacts the competition among multiple ride-sourcing platforms in a competitive market. To better understand the multi-homing behavior, we present exploratory evidence on the factors that influence drivers' platform switching behavior. The RF-MNL (random forest multinomial logistic regression) framework is applied to analyze multi-homing driver behavior in a competitive ride-sourcing market. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) is adopted to model the platform switching behavior of multi-homing drivers. The random forest is employed to seek the best combination of variables for the MLR model, which is calibrated by using the one-month multi-platform ride-sourcing data in Hangzhou, China. A variety of explanatory variables that influence ride-sourcing drivers' multi-homing behavior are estimated. The results show that the driver's socio-demographic characteristics, income level, bonus income (e.g., long-distance price rise), and work time related factors (e.g., the time gap of order dispatching, and wait time) play an essential role in determining the platform switching decision. This study corroborates the evidence of significant factors that impact drivers' switching from one ride-sourcing platform to another, which can support decision-making for ride-sourcing platforms to attract drivers serving the platform exclusively. We also examine how heterogeneity in drivers' multi-homing tendencies affects the platform's policy. To our best knowledge, this paper is one of the first quantitative studies that empirically reveal the commonly observed multi-homing behavior of ride-sourcing drivers by exploring real-world city-wide data collected on multiple platforms.     

Measurement scales and scale independence in the analytic hierarchy process

One approach to evaluate the relative performance of decision alternatives with respect to multiple criteria is provided by the analytic hierarchy process. The method is based on pairwise comparisons between attributes, and several numerical measurement scales for the ratio statements have been proposed. The choice of measurement scale is re‐examined, and new arguments supporting the measurement scale of geometric progression are derived. Separately from the measurement scale considerations, the effects of the scale parameter in geometric measurement scale are also studied. By using a regression model for pairwise comparisons data, it is shown that the statistical inference does not depend on the value of the scale parameter in the case of a single pairwise comparison matrix. It is also shown when the scale independence of statistical inference can be achieved in a decision hierarchy. This requires the use of the geometric‐mean aggregation rule instead of the traditional arithmetic‐mean aggregation. The results of the case study demonstrate that the measurement scale and the aggregation rule have potentially large impacts on decision support. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Braine心理逻辑理论述评

该文对Braine提出的在推理心理学研究领域占居重要地位的“心理逻辑理论”做了综合述评。“心理逻辑理论”主要包括三方面内容:构成“心理逻辑理论”基础的一组推理规则图式、将推理规则图式应用于推理过程的推理方案、实际应用意义。Braine认为他和他的同事于1984年设计并实施的以“自然推理系统”所含各推理规则为实验材料的实验结果支持该理论的基本观点。