Lasso回归：从解释到预测

传统的最小二乘回归法关注于对当前数据集的准确估计, 容易导致模型的过拟合, 影响模型结论的可重复性。随着方法学领域的发展, 涌现出的新兴统计工具可以弥补传统方法的局限, 从过度关注回归系数值的解释转向提升研究结果的预测能力也愈加成为心理学领域重要的发展趋势。Lasso方法通过在模型估计中引入惩罚项的方式, 可以获得更高的预测准确度和模型概化能力, 同时也可以有效地处理过拟合和多重共线性问题, 有助于心理学理论的构建和完善。     

Concise formulas for the standard errors of component loading estimates

Concise formulas for the asymptotic standard errors of component loading estimates were derived. The formulas cover the cases of principal component analysis for unstandardized and standardized variables with orthogonal and oblique rotations. The formulas can be used under any distributions for observed variables as long as the asymptotic covariance matrix for sample covariances/correlations is available. The estimated standard errors in numerical examples were shown to be equivalent to those by the methods using information matrices.The author is indebted to anonymous reviewers for the corrections and suggestions on this study, which have led to improvements of earlier versions of this article.     

Psychometric Modeling of response speed and accuracy with mixed and conditional regression

Human performance in cognitive testing and experimental psychology is expressed in terms of response speed and accuracy. Data analysis is often limited to either speed or accuracy, and/or to crude summary measures like mean response time (RT) or the percentage correct responses. This paper proposes the use of mixed regression for the psychometric modeling of response speed and accuracy in testing and experiments. Mixed logistic regression of response accuracy extends logistic item response theory modeling to multidimensional models with covariates and interactions. Mixed linear regression of response time extends mixed ANOVA to unbalanced designs with covariates and heterogeneity of variance. Related to mixed regression is conditional regression, which requires no normality assumption, but is limited to unidimensional models. Mixed and conditional methods are both applied to an experimental study of mental rotation. Univariate and bivariate analyzes show how within-subject correlation between response and RT can be distinguished from between-subject correlation, and how latent traits can be detected, given careful item design or content analysis. It is concluded that both response and RT must be recorded in cognitive testing, and that mixed regression is a versatile method for analyzing test data.I am grateful to Rogier Donders for putting his data at my disposal.     

Psychoanalysis and Diplomacy: Part I. Individual and Large Group Identity

Starting with Sigmund Freud, psychoanalysts have written on a variety of topics relating to the diplomatic and political realms; but thus far their contributions primarily have been theoretical in nature, and have offered little of practical use to most diplomats and politicians. Various psychoanalytic theories have been applied, resulting in diverse conceptualizations: Wars are inevitable because of our inherent aggressive drives; a nation-state serves a maternal function for its members; certain large groups exhibit behaviors similar to those of adolescents. Yet these ideas do not significantly help us understand day-to-day events around the world, practical political issues, or international relations and diplomatic decisions.     

Psychoanalysis and Diplomacy: Part III. Potentials for and Obstacles Against Collaboration

Given the pervasive influence of Realpolitik over government and the study of international relations, and some inherent difficulties within the field of psychoanalysis, it is not surprising that political science and psychoanalysis remain distant cousins. Part III in this series on diplomacy and psychoanalysis discusses obstacles against collaboration between these two disciplines, but also points to areas where collaboration is possible and can be useful.     

The three latent classes of adolescent delinquency and the risk factors for membership in each class

This study used latent class analysis to examine subpopulation membership based on self-reports of delinquent behaviors obtained from Australian youth. Three discrete identifiable classes were derived based on 51 indicators of physical violence, property damage, minor infractions, drug use, and social delinquency. One class of youth engaged in primarily rule breaking and norm violations including underage alcohol use, typical of this age period. A second class was more actively delinquent emphasizing drug use, trespassing, and various forms of disobedience. A third class of highly delinquent youth differed from their counterparts by endorsing drug use, thievery that involved stealing money, goods, and cars, property damage, gambling, precocious sexual experiences, involvement with pornographic materials, and fighting. Multinomial logistic regression predicting class membership indicated highly delinquent youth were more likely to be older males, use venting coping strategies, and be fun or novelty seeking compared with rule breakers. Findings are discussed in terms of refining current taxonomic arguments regarding the structure of delinquency and implications for prevention of early-stage antisocial behavior.     

Factors contributing to hit-and-run crashes in China

Hit-and-run accidents, or those where the perpetrator leaves the crash scene without reporting the event, are a serious concern because they can delay the rescue of victims, thereby increasing the fatality rate and severity of injuries. However, only a few studies exist on the factors that influence hit-and-run behavior, particularly in developing countries. Using data collected from Guangdong Province in China, this study applies a logistic regression model to analyze factors associated with hit-and-run behavior in five categories: crash attributes and human, vehicle, road, and environmental factors. This study finds that the probability of hit-and-run behavior increases with accidents that involve pedestrians, occur in dark driving conditions, and are caused by drivers who are male, middle-aged, and without a valid driver’s license, extensive driving experience, or automobile insurance. Therefore, we recommend closer supervision and better public education for different groups of people about traffic laws and regulations.     

认知负荷与编码方式影响小学数学学业不良生的前瞻记忆及其成分

通过两个实验探讨认知负荷对小学数学学业不良生前瞻记忆及其成分的影响, 以及是否可以通过执行意向编码提高其前瞻记忆及其成分的成绩。实验1结果显示数学学业不良生前瞻记忆、前瞻成分及回溯成分正确率显著低于数学学优生, 高认知负荷条件前瞻记忆、前瞻成分及回溯成分的正确率显著低于低认知负荷条件; 实验2结果显示执行意向编码条件下, 数学学业不良生前瞻记忆成绩显著好于标准编码条件, 前瞻成分和回溯成分的正确率高于标准编码条件。结果表明数学学业不良生前瞻记忆及其成分表现差于数学学优生; 无论认知负荷高低, 执行意向编码均可通过提升前瞻成分和回溯成分改善数学学业不良生前瞻记忆表现。