等级效标分数的概率神经网络预测方法研究

针对基于统计学的等级效标分数预测存在的问题,提出了运用概率神经网络进行等级效标分数预测的方法。在20种条件下进行了计算机模拟实验,包括测验分数为单变量和多变量,以及各种水平的白噪声干扰条件,结果表明在测验分数为多变量的情况下,或者在有白噪声干扰的条件下,运用概率神经网络方法可以比统计学方法更好地对等级效标分数进行预测。     

工作家庭冲突对电讯人员工作倦怠和心理健康的影响

采用工作家庭冲突问卷、工作倦怠问卷（MBI-Gs）和一般健康状况问卷（GHQ-12）调查了某国营电讯公司526名员工。中介回归分析（Mediating Regressin Analysis）的结果显示,工作家庭冲突及其两个子成分（工作浸扰家庭和家庭浸扰工作）都对心理健康具有显著的负向影响;工作倦怠对工作家庭冲突影响心理健康具有完全中介作用;具体而言,工作浸扰家庭对心理健康的影响受情绪衰竭和玩世不恭的完全中介;家庭浸扰工作对心理健康的影响受工作倦怠所有三个子成分的完全中介。     

尿沉渣法、干化学法及传统镜检测定尿液中有形成分的对比研究

以传统镜检法结果作为标准,分别采用AX4280全自动尿液干化学法分析仪（干化学法）和IQ200尿沉渣分析仪（尿沉渣法）及两种方法的并联和串联检测新疆石河子地区532例患者的清洁中段尿,并评价两种方法的检测效果。结果显示,与传统镜检法比较,干化学法和尿沉渣法串联对尿液中红、白细胞检出率的阳性预测值高,具有临床意义;尿沉渣法对红、白细胞检测误诊率较高,需用镜检进行确认。尿沉渣法和干化学法可对临床提供一定的依据,但不能完全代替传统镜检,几种方法可作为互补,提高检测准确性。     

Offending Patterns of Serial Sex Offenders: Escalation,De‐escalation,and Consistency of Sexually Intrusive and Violent Behaviours

A series of stranger sexual assaults poses considerable obstacles for law enforcement officials. One such preoccupation is concerned with whether or not the offender will escalate in the severity of his behaviours with subsequent victims. The current study uses transition matrices to address whether or not the offending patterns of 72 serial stranger sex offenders change from one victim to the next as it pertains to their sexual acts and level of physical force used during the crime. Findings indicate that stability, specifically the offender's intrusive sexual acts and use of physical force, and versatility are present in this sample's offending patterns. To explain changes in offending patterns between victims, multinomial regression analyses indicate that situational factors and modus operandi strategies are important considerations. Implications for investigations are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The power of regression to the mean: A social norm study revisited

This research follows up on a study by Schultz et al. ( 2007 ), in which the effect of a social norm intervention on energy consumption was examined. The present studies included control groups to examine whether social norm effects would persist beyond regression to the mean. Both studies had a 2 (baseline consumption: below mean versus above mean) × 2 (message condition: no‐message control versus norm message) design . Based on baseline fruit ( Study 1 ) or unhealthy snack ( Study 2 ) consumption, students were classified as above mean or below mean for consumption. One week later, half of the students in the above‐mean and below‐mean groups received normative feedback; control groups did not. Neither study showed an effect of norm messages on behavior relative to control, providing evidence for regression to the mean as an alternative explanation. Findings highlight the importance of control groups to distinguish social norm intervention effects from mere regression to the mean.     

Metacognitive sensitivity of subjective reports of decisional confidence and visual experience

Previous studies provided contradicting results regarding metacognitive sensitivity estimated from subjective reports of confidence in comparison to subjective reports of visual experience. We investigated whether this effect of content of subjective reports is influenced by the statistical method to quantify metacognitive sensitivity. Comparing logistic regression and meta-d in a masked orientation task, a masked shape task, and a random-dot motion task, we observed metacognitive sensitivity of reports regarding decisional confidence was greater than of reports about visual experience irrespective of mathematical procedures. However, the relationship between subjective reports and the logistic transform of accuracy was often not linear, implying that logistic regression is not a consistent measure of metacognitive sensitivity. We argue that a science of consciousness would benefit from the assessment of both visual experience and decisional confidence, and recommend meta-d as measure of metacognitive sensitivity for future studies.     

Using Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression

The previously unknown asymptotic distribution of Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression is established as a linear combination of independent chi‐square random variables with one degree of freedom. An exhaustive approach to the analysis of influential covariates is developed and a new measure for the accuracy of predictions based on such a distribution is provided. Two examples with real data sets (one with continuous covariates and the other with both qualitative and quantitative covariates) are presented to illustrate the approach developed.     

Equivalence tests for comparing correlation and regression coefficients

Equivalence tests are an alternative to traditional difference‐based tests for demonstrating a lack of association between two variables. While there are several recent studies investigating equivalence tests for comparing means, little research has been conducted on equivalence methods for evaluating the equivalence or similarity of two correlation coefficients or two regression coefficients. The current project proposes novel tests for evaluating the equivalence of two regression or correlation coefficients derived from the two one‐sided tests (TOST) method (Schuirmann, 1987, J. Pharmacokinet. Biopharm, 15, 657) and an equivalence test by Anderson and Hauck (1983, Stat. Commun., 12, 2663). A simulation study was used to evaluate the performance of these tests and compare them with the common, yet inappropriate, method of assessing equivalence using non‐rejection of the null hypothesis in difference‐based tests. Results demonstrate that equivalence tests have more accurate probabilities of declaring equivalence than difference‐based tests. However, equivalence tests require large sample sizes to ensure adequate power. We recommend the Anderson–Hauck equivalence test over the TOST method for comparing correlation or regression coefficients.     

The Cognitive Social Network in Dreams: Transitivity,Assortativity, and Giant Component Proportion Are Monotonic

For five individuals, a social network was constructed from a series of his or her dreams. Three important network measures were calculated for each network: transitivity, assortativity, and giant component proportion. These were monotonically related; over the five networks as transitivity increased, assortativity increased and giant component proportion decreased. The relations indicate that characters appear in dreams systematically. Systematicity likely arises from the dreamer's memory of people and their relations, which is from the dreamer's cognitive social network. But the dream social network is not a copy of the cognitive social network. Waking life social networks tend to have positive assortativity; that is, people tend to be connected to others with similar connectivity. Instead, in our sample of dream social networks assortativity is more often negative or near 0, as in online social networks. We show that if characters appear via a random walk, negative assortativity can result, particularly if the random walk is biased as suggested by remote associations.