The relationship between Fisher's exact test and Pearson's chi-square test: A bayesian perspective

It is demonstrated in this paper that two major tests for 2 × 2 talbes are highly related from a Bayesian perspective. Although it is well-known that Fisher's exact and Pearson's chi-square tests are asymptotically equivalent, the present analysis shows that a formal similarity also exists in small samples. The key assumption that leads to the resemblance is the presence of a continuous parameter measuring association. In particular, it is shown that Pearson's probability can be obtained by integrating a two-moment approximation to the posterior distribution of the log-odds ratio. Furthermore, Pearson's chi-square test gave an excellent approximation to the actual Bayes probability in all 2×2 tables examined, except for those with extremely disproportionate marginal frequencies.     

Learning about food: starlings, skinner boxes, and earthworms

Despite its importance as a tool for understanding a wide range of animal behavior, the study of reinforcement schedules in the laboratory has suffered from difficulties in the biological interpretation of its findings. This study is an operant-laboratory investigation of the ability of European starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, to learn to respond adaptively to the problem of foraging on patchily distributed prey that are uncertainly located in space. In order to maximize the biological relevance of the laboratory study, variation in the aggregation of earthworms, Lumbricus terrestris (a prey species), was rigorously quantified from the field, and the experimental birds were presented with reinforcement schedules designed to represent the extremes of the observed variation. The results demonstrate that, even for a single prey species, the degree to which individuals are aggregated can vary markedly over a range of spatial scales, and that starlings can rapidly learn to respond, in an adaptive manner, to these variations. These findings suggest that starlings are capable of adjusting their behavior to facilitate the efficient exploitation of prey that occurs in patches of an uncertain nature, and thus illustrate the heuristic value of an ecologically informed operant-laboratory approach to studying foraging behavior.     

Some contributions to efficient statistics in structural models: Specification and estimation of moment structures

Current practice in structural modeling of observed continuous random variables is limited to representation systems for first and second moments (e.g., means and covariances), and to distribution theory based on multivariate normality. In psychometrics the multinormality assumption is often incorrect, so that statistical tests on parameters, or model goodness of fit, will frequently be incorrect as well. It is shown that higher order product moments yield important structural information when the distribution of variables is arbitrary. Structural representations are developed for generalizations of the Bentler-Weeks, Jöreskog-Keesling-Wiley, and factor analytic models. Some asymptotically distribution-free efficient estimators for such arbitrary structural models are developed. Limited information estimators are obtained as well. The special case of elliptical distributions that allow nonzero but equal kurtoses for variables is discussed in some detail. The argument is made that multivariate normal theory for covariance structure models should be abandoned in favor of elliptical theory, which is only slightly more difficult to apply in practice but specializes to the traditional case when normality holds. Many open research areas are described.     

Comparing latent distributions

We consider the problem of comparingm latent population distributions when the observed values are scores on a test battery with binary items. The latent densities are assumed to be normal densities, and we consider a test for equality of the means as well as a test equality of the variances. In addition, we consider a longitudinal model, where the test battery has been applied to the same individuals at different points in time. This model allows for correlations between the latent variable at different time points, and methods are discussed for estimating the correlation coefficient.This work was supported in part by a grant from the Danish Social Science Research Council.     

Overshadowing by fixed- and variable-duration stimuli

Two experiments investigated the effect of the temporal distribution form of a stimulus on its ability to produce an overshadowing effect. The overshadowing stimuli were either of the same duration on every trial, or of a variable duration drawn from an exponential distribution with the same mean duration as that of the fixed stimulus. Both experiments provided evidence that a variable-duration stimulus was less effective than a fixed-duration cue at overshadowing conditioning to a target conditioned stimulus (CS); moreover, this effect was independent of whether the overshadowed CS was fixed or variable. The findings presented here are consistent with the idea that the strength of the association between CS and unconditioned stimulus (US) is, in part, determined by the temporal distribution form of the CS. These results are discussed in terms of time-accumulation and trial-based theories of conditioning and timing.     

Clarifying Amateurism: A Logical Approach to Resolving the Exploitation of College Athletes Dilemma

In this paper we investigate the logical consequences of the common understanding of amateurism in the context of big-time US college athletics, and in so doing, illustrate a method based on linguistic analysis and logic. The initial thrust of the paper centres on the term ‘amateur’ as presupposed by the late Professor Brand in his attempt to justify the ‘business’ of NCAA-sponsored Division I sports by decoupling the ‘participants from the enterprise’. Next, we examine a more rigorous definition of the term ‘amateur’ in order to show more clearly the difficulties posed by the current situation in college athletics. Additionally, our use of linguistic analysis exposes a flaw in the NCAA's recent move to amend by-law 12.02 in an attempt to avoid the charge of exploitation. Lastly, we put forth a new proposal for better dealing with the central issues swirling around the NCAA as it strives to formulate sound policy at this ‘tectonic’ juncture of players, fans, college programmes and academic integrity.     

礼与食孰重:儒墨之辩新论

孔墨“俱道尧舜”但政治理想却截然不同,其主要原因在于两方面,首先是他们有着各不相同的历史传统和政治理想,其次是他们对于中国轴心时代的社会现实有着完全不同的认识和评价。两家显学的根本分歧在于“礼与食孰重”,儒家认为生活资料的匮乏是由于人的动物性欲望未能得到有效的遏制,因而特别强调了一整套礼仪制度对于文明的重要性。墨家则认为正是由于礼仪制度本身的维系严重消耗了社会的物质基础,才使得人们为了满足饥饿的食本能而不得不弱肉强食。这个思想史的问题至今仍未结束。     

Commodious Axiomatization of Quantifiers in Multiple-Valued Logic

We provide tools for a concise axiomatization of a broad class of quantifiers in many-valued logic, so-called distribution quantifiers. Although sound and complete axiomatizations for such quantifiers exist, their size renders them virtually useless for practical purposes. We show that for quantifiers based on finite distributive lattices compact axiomatizations can be obtained schematically. This is achieved by providing a link between skolemized signed formulas and filters/ideals in Boolean set lattices. Then lattice theoretic tools such as Birkhoff's representation theorem for finite distributive lattices are used to derive tableau-style axiomatizations of distribution quantifiers.     

Binary action based estimation of propensities

An observer is to make inference statements about a quantityp, called apropensity and bounded between 0 and 1, based on the observation thatp does or does not exceed a constantc. The propensityp may have an interpretation as a proportion, as a long-run relative frequency, or as a personal probability held by some subject. Applications in medicine, engineering, political science, and, most especially, human decision making are indicated. Bayes solutions for the observer are obtained based on prior distributions in the mixture of beta distribution family; these are then specialized to power-function prior distributions. Inference about logp and log odds is considered. Multiple-action problems are considered in which the focus of inference shifts to theprocess generating the propensitiesp, both in the case of a process parameter known to the subject and unknown. Empirical Bayes techniques are developed for observer inference aboutc when is known to the subject. A Bayes rule, a minimax rule and a beta-minimax rule are constructed for the subject when he is uncertain about.This research was partially supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by ONR under Contract No. N00014-77-C-0095. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Office of Naval Research, or Carnegie-Mellon University.     

Measuring nominal scale agreement between a judge and a known standard

Two designs for comparing a judge's ratings with a known standard are presented and compared. Design A pertains to the situation where the judge is asked to categorize each ofN subjects into one ofr (known) classes with no knowledge of the actual number in each class. Design B is employed when the judge is given the actual number in each class and is asked to categorize the individuals subject to these constraints. The probability distribution of the total number of correct choices is developed in each case. A power comparison of the two procedures is undertaken.