‘Attentional Bias’ in correlation judgments? Smedslund (1963) revisited

Smedslund (1963) reports one of the first studies that investigated human judgments of correlation. Smedslund's conclusion, that people reason about correlation mostly from a consideration of the number of times two variables co-occur, has become textbook wisdom (e.g. Baron's "attentional bias", 1994). Yet the data reported in Smedslund's paper fall short of endorsing such a conclusion. After reviewing the original paper, we present the method with which we replicated Smedslund's main experiment. In Experiment 1 subjects were presented with symptom-disease correlation data through a simulated medical diagnosis task. Subjects clearly discriminated between data sets which shared an equal number of symptom-disease co-occurrences but which otherwise showed different levels of correlation. Subjects' diagnoses showed a propensity to predict the disease in the presence of the symptom, and symptom-disease co-occurrences were overestimated in two of the five data sets presented to the subjects. Experiment 2 used a novel abstract scenario with a symmetric predictor variable. Judgments again indicated good discrimination, and biases in prediction responses and case recall were eliminated. In both experiments, judgments of zero correlation were a function of the outcome base rate. We evaluate and contrast the extent to which Cheng's (1997) model of causal induction and two associative models, Rescorla and Wagner (1972) and Pearce (1987) can anticipate the observed pattern in the mean judgments.     

Class-consistent Differential Reinforcement And Stimulus Class Formation In Pigeons

Match-to-sample training clusters of A1 (sample): B1/B2 (comparisons), A2: B2/B1, B1: A1/A2, B2: A2/A1, B1: C1/C2, B2: C2/C1, C1: B1/B2, and C2: B2/B1 were presented to pigeons with class-consistent differential reinforcement using two dissimilar types of food reinforcers. Distinctive class-consistent response patterns occurred to the samples during the fixed-ratio 5 sample observing response requirement. Subsequent tests, modeled from the equivalence class paradigm demonstrated the emergence (80% class consistent) of the transitive-like A-C and C-A relations for 4 and 2 of 12 pigeons, respectively, and a strong trend (over 70%) for 7 and 6 others, respectively; the emergence of the reflexive-like identity relation when the nonidentical comparison was from the other class; and the disruption of the trained within-class relation with the addition of a reflexive comparison. After directional training of C1: D1/D2 and C2: D2/D1, tests indicated no emergence of the symmetric-like D-C relation or the composite D-B and D-A relations, but the B-D and A-D transitive-like relation occurred with some pigeons. Off-baseline training with class-consistent differential reinforcement contingent on responding to the D stimuli alone produced distinctive responding and, in turn, a trend to D-C symmetric-like control in 4 of 12 pigeons, as well as a shift toward class-consistent control on D-B and D-A test trials. Class-consistent differential reinforcement that produced distinctive sample behavior promoted stimulus control relations like those that circumscribe equivalence class formation. Respondent—operant interactions permit an analysis of the possible enrollment of stimulus values of distinctive responding to the discriminative stimuli forming the stimulus classes via processes corresponding to naming in humans.     

‘You've got to grow up when you've got a kid’: Marginalized young women's accounts of motherhood

Teenage motherhood has been a source of considerable debate in policy and media circles in recent years. This paper explores the meanings of teenage motherhood for young women who were mothers before the age of 21, who were living in economically deprived areas of England and most of whom had been in residential or foster care. Qualitative interviews were carried out at several sites across England, with a total of 33 young women taking part in group interviews and one‐to‐one interviews. The accounts of the young women suggest that they talk about motherhood in three main ways: as ‘hardship and reward’, ‘growing up and responsibility’ and ‘doing things differently’. It is argued that these ways of talking about motherhood present a different picture of teenage motherhood from that of dominant discourses. Furthermore, the young women are active in negotiating and constructing their own identities as mothers, carers and women. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Successful and Unsuccessful Treatment of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder in Older Adults

Obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) is a condition that was once thought to rarely occur in older adults. Subsequently, treatment of OCD in the elderly has received very limited attention. However, recent epidemiological studies have highlighted the prevalence of this disorder in late life and, thus, focus has turned to comprehensive treatment for this population. This article describes two older adults who received intensive, cognitive behavioral treatment in an inpatient setting. Treatment modifications incorporating age-specific concerns are discussed, as are potential factors influencing treatment success versus symptom relapse.     

Psychological characteristics of infertile couples: can they predict pregnancy and treatment persistence?

The paper describes an exploratory study of the relative importance of different psychological variables for the prediction of (a) pregnancies and (b) treatment continuation in a sample of 140 couples seeking specialized infertility treatment one year after their first contact with an infertility clinic. The couples filled out questionnaires dealing with psychological and interpersonal functioning, marital and life satisfaction, child-related attitudes, causal attribution of infertility and general expectations towards the treatment. It could be shown that the psychological variables explain a relatively small amount of the variance of the pregnancy criterion. Nevertheless, there were some indications supporting the hypothesis that psychological complaints can be seen as a ‘risk factor’ associated with a lower pregnancy rate. Couples who had terminated treatment after one year indicated a higher amount of psychological and interpersonal complaints (females) as well as partner problems (males and females), and a dominance of internal attributions of the fertility problem. This result—which might help to develop strategies for counselling couples making use of the new reproductive technologies—highlights the importance of attribution and cognitive appraisal in coping with infertility. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testosterone and attribution of successful competition

Mood, personal merit, and/or its perception have been suggested to be mediating factors in testosterone responses to competition. Previously we have found that personal contribution and attribution were related to testosterone levels after successful competition. To confirm such associations, two basketball teams (n = 17 players) that emerged as winners in two actual matches were studied. Salivary testosterone levels and mood were measured before and after the games. Individual contribution to the outcome was assessed, and personal satisfaction and causal attribution of outcome were reported by players. Testosterone concentrations increased to near significance in Team 1 but not in Team 2, who attributed their victory more to luck than did Team 1. This latter team showed notably decreased vigor, and both teams showed fatigue at the end of the match. Post‐match testosterone levels were only significantly, negatively related to external attribution. The results support the idea that causal attribution of the outcome is contributing to the variance of the testosterone responses to real confrontations where the outcome is highly dependent on personal merit. Aggr. Behav. 26:235–240, 2000. © 2000 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Using time‐lagged panel data analysis to study mechanisms of change in psychotherapy research: Methodological recommendations

The introduction of novel methodologies in the past decade has advanced research on mechanisms of change in observational studies. Time‐lagged panel models allow us to track session‐by‐session changes and focus on within‐patient associations between predictors and outcomes. This shift is crucial as change in mechanisms inherently takes place at a within‐patient level. These models also enable preliminary casual inferences, which can guide the development of effective personalised interventions that target mechanisms of change, used at specific treatment phases for optimal effect. Given their complexity, panel models need to be implemented with caution, as different modelling choices can significantly affect results and reduce replicability. We outline three central methodological recommendations for use of time‐lagged panel analysis to study mechanisms of change: (a) taking patient‐specific effects into account, separating out stable between‐person differences from within‐person fluctuations over time; (b) properly controlling for autoregressive effects; and (c) considering long‐term time trends. We demonstrate these recommendations in an applied example examining the session‐by‐session alliance–outcome association in a naturalistic psychotherapy study. We present limitations of time‐lagged panel analysis and future directions.     

The Effect of PTSD Symptom Change on Suicidal Ideation in a Combined Military and Civilian Sample Engaged in Cognitive Processing Therapy

In light of the well-established relationship between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicidal ideation (SI), there has been a push for treatments that simultaneously improve symptoms of PTSD and decrease SI. Using data from a randomized controlled hybrid implementation-effectiveness trial, the current study investigated the effectiveness of Cognitive Processing Therapy (CPT; Resick, Monson, & Chard, 2016) on PTSD and SI. The patient sample (N = 188) was diverse in military and veteran status, gender, and comorbidity, and 73% of the sample endorsed SI at one or more points during CPT. Participants demonstrated significant improvement in SI over the course of CPT. Multilevel growth curve modeling revealed a significant association between PTSD symptom change and change in SI. Results from cross-lagged multilevel regressions indicated that PTSD symptoms predicted SI in the next session, yet SI in a given session did not predict PTSD symptoms in the next session. Potentially relevant clinical factors (i.e., military status, gender, depression diagnosis, baseline SI, study consultation condition) were not associated with the relationship between PTSD symptoms and SI. These results add to the burgeoning literature suggesting that evidence-based treatments for PTSD, like CPT, reduce suicidality in a range of individuals with PTSD, and that this reduction is predicted by improvements in PTSD symptoms.     

Testing Clinical Intuitions About Barriers to Improvement in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Panic Disorder

Although clinical intuitions influence psychotherapeutic practice and are a rich source of novel hypotheses for research, many remain to be empirically tested. This study evaluates whether clinicians’ beliefs about barriers to progress in cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for panic disorder are supported by data. Data from a randomized-controlled trial comparing CBT to panic-focused psychodynamic psychotherapy (PFPP) for adults with primary panic disorder (N = 161) were used to evaluate 15 factors endorsed by clinicians as impediments to CBT in a recent survey. Panic severity was assessed before, during (at Weeks 1, 5, and 9), and at termination of treatment (Week 12) using the Panic Disorder Severity Scale. Hierarchical linear modeling revealed that none of the perceived barriers were predictive of poor outcome. Contrary to clinicians’ intuitions, dissociation during panic attacks was associated with greater symptomatic improvement in both treatment arms (β = ?0.69, p < .05), above the effect of established predictors. Moderation analyses revealed that when patients had PTSD diagnosed with the Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule (β = 1.71, p < .05) or less severe panic disorder (β = 0.45, p = .04), they changed more rapidly in CBT than in PFPP. Overall, clinician agreement was inversely related to the strength of a predictor (r = ?.24, p = .39). Although clinical intuitions can be useful as clinical and empirical signals, such beliefs should be critically examined before informing practice. Dialogue between academics and clinicians might be enhanced through research that incorporates input from front-line practitioners.