Early pathways to bullying: A prospective longitudinal study examining the influences of theory of mind and social preference on bullying behaviour during the first 3 years of school

Research has focused on the role of theory of mind (ToM) for positive social behaviour, while the association between ToM and negative social behaviours is less well understood. This longitudinal study compares two mediation models examining the role of ToM and peer-rated social preference at ages 5 and 6 for bullying at age 7. Participants were 114 children (58 boys, M_age = 67 months) at entry to primary school (T1). At Time 2 (T2), 106 children and, at Time 3 (T3), 96 children remained. Teacher-rated externalizing problems and children’s language ability were controlled at T1. Poor ToM was found to indirectly predict later bullying via poor social preference, while for boys only, greater earlier ToM directly predicted greater bullying 2 years later. These results suggest that there are different pathways to bullying via ToM and social preference , which has implications for interventions to prevent the development of bullying behaviour.     

Preferences for suicide prevention strategies among university students in Japan: a cross-sectional study using full-profile conjoint analysis

In Japan, implementation of suicide prevention policies is mainly supported by public funds. However, it is unclear what kinds of suicide prevention strategies people prefer. We conducted a survey to clarify people’s preferences regarding suicide prevention strategies adopted in Japan. This was a cross-sectional self-administered questionnaire survey. Participants were recruited through a lecture held by the first author at their university. We distributed questionnaires to 324 people present at the lecture; 249 completed questionnaires were included in the final analysis. We estimated suicide prevention strategy preferences using full profile conjoint analysis. For all six prevention strategies, the inclusion of each strategy in the policy profile was statistically significantly related to the positive evaluation of the overall policy profile. Marginal Willingness to Pay (MWTP) for restriction of access to means showed the highest value of the six suicide prevention strategies. MWTP was the lowest for public awareness activities. Preferred suicide prevention strategies in Japan are restriction of access to means and enhancement of psychiatric services. The results of this study indicate the strategies that are preferred have a high level of evidence of suicide prevention and do not directly intervene in a person’s free will to die by suicide.     

Effects of perception on public bike-and-ride: A survey under complex,multifactor mode-choice scenarios

Bicycles are an environmentally-friendly, energy-saving mode of transportation. Public bike-and-ride is a term used to describe the use of public bicycles combined with transit as a means of transportation. A new stated preference (SP) design scheme based on the factors respondents felt were most important was proposed to augment the traditional SP design under complex multi-factor and multi-level situations. iPads were used to automatically administer the survey under each design scheme and collect the choice behavior data for public bike-and-ride. The concept of perceived psychological distance was further proposed and used to estimate Logit models. Comparative analysis of these models shows for the traditional SP design scheme, some factors, including perceived psychological distance, have reduced statistically significant effects on public bike-and-ride choice relative to the new SP design scheme. This indicates that in scenarios with complex decisions, the decision-makers would reduce their consideration of some factors and simplify their decision process making the new SP survey design scheme more suitable to analyze their choice behavior in those cases. Model analysis showed that perceived psychological distance for each traveler is the most critical factor during the decision process for travel behavior analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine which factors in the new survey design were important to increase the share of public bike-and-ride users. Practical findings for promoting public bike-and-ride use are presented in addition to theoretical references for improving the traditional survey methods.     

The role of preference in speed choice

Individual differences with regard to speed preference may be a source of speed heterogeneity and conflicts in traffic, such as tailgating and dangerous overtaking. The main aim of the current study was to explore drivers’ speed preferences when driving for different reasons (saving money on fuel, driving safely, driving for fun or driving as usual) and the relationship of these preferences to observed speeds and self-reported speed. 193 drivers were interviewed at five different locations, and were asked about their speeds on roads they had just travelled. Drivers’ speeds on these roads were also sampled with a speed gun. The results showed large differences between speeds chosen for different driving purposes; the lowest speeds were chosen when the goal was economy and the highest when driving for fun. In addition, there were individual differences in speed preferences such that some drivers indicated that their usual speed was above what they believed was a safe speed while others indicated that they usually drove even slower than what they thought was safe. These differences may account for much of the speed heterogeneity observed in on-road behaviour. The results also showed that drivers’ speed choices are highly influenced by their usual speeds, even more so than their beliefs regarding what constitutes a safe speed, which may help explain non-compliance with speed limits. No relationship was found between speed choice and risk perception.     

叙事医学反思性写作对共同决策价值探析

以叙事医学工具反思性写作为切入点,首先从医方、患方及外部环境三个角度分析了当前医患共同决策所面临的临床实践困境,其次在对反思性写作概念、实践特点概述的基础上,提出了叙事能力对临床工作的重要性、叙事医学伦理对决策困境的作用,最后从促使医方自我反思,避免引导式决策及权威主义;弥合医患视阈差异,达成决策共识;阐明并澄清患者偏好及价值观,促进个体化共同决策;提高患者参与决策意愿,调动参与决策积极性;缓和医患关系,实现医患共情,促进共同决策良性互动五个方面阐述了反思性写作对医患共同决策困境的助力作用。

     

消费者基于选择集的情境效应

消费者基于选择集的情境效应颠覆了传统的理性选择理论,表明了情境对消费者偏好和选择的系统性影响。情境效应主要的类型有吸引效应和折衷效应。情境效应具有感知偏差、风险和负面情绪规避以及信息推理等方面的内在机理。选择集结构和特征及消费者等因素都对情境效应产生影响,而情境效应会影响消费者偏好的构建。未来情境效应研究将会向复杂属性组合、复杂购买情境和新情境效应的发现等方面拓展。     

风险决策中动态框架效应研究

风险决策的框架效应一直是理论研究和实践应用的焦点。该研究利用计算机联网模拟团队分布式动态风险决策任务,从三个方面（过去绩效,启动资金和目标设置）研究决策者在动态条件下风险偏好的变化规律。研究发现“目标设置”因素框架效应具有抑制作用,“启动资金”因素对个体和团队有不同影响。研究结果表明,风险敏感性同样适用于解释动态情境下的风险偏好。