贝叶斯统计方法的应用与现状

贝叶斯统计方法是心理学数据分析的热门方法。研究全面论述贝叶斯方法在心理学领域的应用与方向。现阶段贝叶斯方法以模拟研究为主,应用方向为心理学研究常用的项目反应理论、认知诊断、计算机自适应、结构方程模型。同时,评述发现贝叶斯方法正逐步被国内心理学研究者所接受。最后,文章讨论了当下贝叶斯统计在心理学研究中应用的局限性及可能的原因,建议统计学者开发界面友好的贝叶斯软件,并在心理学课程中加入贝叶斯知识。     

超重女性对食物信息加工的注意偏向和记忆偏向

采用与食物图片相关的点探测任务和学习—再认范式考察超重女性对不同热量食物信息的注意偏向和记忆偏向。结果发现：(1) 超重女性对高热量食物信息存在注意警觉—注意脱离困难模式,对低热量食物信息仅表现为注意回避模式。(2) 超重组女性对高热量食物信息的再认正确率显著高于正常体重组,而对低热量食物信息的再认成绩组间差异不显著。研究结果证实了超重女性对高热量食物信息投入更多的认知资源,存在注意偏向和记忆偏向。     

On the evaluation of one-sided evidence

We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one-sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called ‘jurors’) saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence.     

Information seeking on Bayesian conditional probability problems: A fuzzy-trace theory account

Recently, the ‘heuristics and biases’ approach to the study of decision making has been criticized, with a call for better integrated theory. Three experiments stemming from fuzzy-trace theory addressed information seeking on probability problems, and the cognitive representation of hit-rates, base-rates, and the contrapositive. As predicted by the fuzzy-trace principle of ‘denominator neglect’, many subjects exhibited ‘conversion errors’, confusing the hit-rate, P(A|B), with the answer, P(B|A). These subjects sought base-rates less often than other subjects. On causal problems, more subjects correctly represented base-rates, sought base-rates more often, and produced more accurate estimates than on non-causal problems. Subjects tutored on the meaning of the hit-rate sought the base-rate more often, and were more accurate than control subjects. Results are explained by fuzzy-trace theory principles of gist extraction, fuzzy processing preference, denominator neglect, and output interference.     

Decomposition of multivariate utility functions in non-additive expected utility theory

In expected utility many results have been derived that give necessary and/or sufficient conditions for a multivariate utility function to be decomposable into lower-dimensional functions. In particular, multilinear, multiplicative and additive decompositions have been widely discussed. These utility functions can be more easily assessed in practical situations. In this paper we present a theory of decomposition in the context of nonadditive expected utility such as anticipated utility or Choquet expected utility. We show that many of the results used in conventional expected utility carry over to these more general frameworks. If preferences over lotteries depend only on the marginal probability distributions, then in expected utility the utility function is additively decomposable. We show that in anticipated utility the marginality condition implies not only that the utility function is additively decomposable but also that the distortion function is the identity function. We further demonstrate that a decision maker who is bivariate risk neutral has a utility function that is additively decomposable and a distortion function q for which q(½) = ½.     

Teaching children with autism spectrum disorder to ask “where” questions using a speech-generating device

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who have limited speech are often taught to communicate using a speech-generating device (SGD). We evaluated procedures for teaching a mand for information (i.e., Where is [item]?) using an interrupted behavior chain procedure. In Experiment 1, all participants (3 children with ASD who communicated using an SGD) acquired the target mand but transfer to a novel stimulus did not occur. In the second experiment, 2 participants were taught to approach alternative communication partners when the first partner did not provide the information. The second experiment also included procedures to test whether the responses were under the control of appropriate motivating operations (MOs). Generalization across communication partners occurred with both participants, but transfer across behavior chains with only 1 participant. The results of both experiments suggest that teaching multiple behavior chains and evaluating MO control may be necessary to establish generalized manding for information.     

A hermeneutic study of integrating psychotherapist competence in postnatal Child Health Care: Parents’ perspectives

A child's emotional and social development depends on the parents’ provision of optimal support. Many parents with perinatal distress experience difficulties in mastering parenthood and seek help from professionals within primary healthcare. A clinical project was launched in Stockholm, where psychodynamic psychotherapists provided short-term consultations at Child Health Centers. This study qualitatively explored parents’ experiences of perinatal distress and of receiving help by nurses and therapists in the project. Thirteen parents were interviewed, and their responses were analyzed with a hermeneutical method. Three main themes crystallized; accessibility of psychological help and detection of emotional problems; experiences of therapy at the Child Health Center; and the therapists’ technique. Parents were also clustered into three so-called ideal types: the insecure; parents in crisis; and parents with lifelong psychological problems. Parents experienced obstacles in accessing psychological care within primary healthcare. Psychotherapists with a holistic family perspective and who managed to oscillate between insight-promoting and supportive interventions were especially appreciated. Patient categories who benefitted from insight promotion and support, respectively, were identified.     

Decision-makers use social information to update their preferences but choose for others as they do for themselves

People's risky decisions are susceptible to the social context in which they take place. Across three experiments using different paradigms, we investigated the influence of three social factors upon participants' decisions: the recipient of the decision-making outcome (self, other, or joint), the nature of the relationship with the other agent (friend, stranger, or teammate), and the type of information that participants received about others' preferences: none at all, general information about how previous participants had decided, or information about a specific partner's preference. We found that participants' decisions about risk did not differ according to whether the outcome at stake was their own, another agent's, or a joint outcome, nor according to the type of information available. Participants did, however, adjust their preferences for risky options in light of social information.