Regression I. Experimental approaches to regression

The concept of regression is considered with an emphasis on the differences between the positions of Freud and Jung regarding its significance. The paper discusses the results of experimental analyses of individual experience dynamics (from gene expression changes and impulse neuronal activity in animals to prosocial behaviour in healthy humans at different ages, and humans in chronic pain) in those situations where regression occurs: stress, disease, learning, highly emotional states and alcohol intoxication. Common mechanisms of regression in all these situations are proposed. The mechanisms of regression can be described as reversible dedifferentiation, which is understood as a relative increase of the representation of low-differentiated (older) systems in the actualized experience. In all of the cases of dedifferentiation mentioned above, the complexity of the systemic organization of behaviour significantly decreases.     

3~4岁幼儿创造性人格与气质的交叉滞后分析

以幼儿创造性人格倾向教师评定问卷、儿童气质教师评定问卷作为研究工具,对287名3岁和4岁组幼儿进行为期一年的追踪研究,考察幼儿气质与创造性人格的发展变化情况,以及幼儿气质与其创造性人格之间的关系。结果发现：随着时间的发展,幼儿气质对其创造性人格有显著影响。幼儿的情绪性、活动性、反应性及专注性均能够显著正向预测其创造性人格,而幼儿的社会抑制性则能够显著负向预测其创造性人格。     

自我同一性理论与经验研究

ErikErikson首先提出自我同一性的问题,并从多个角度对其进行描述,但没有对其进行实证研究。而Marcia则从复杂的自我同一性概念中析出两个维度,从而对自我同一性进行实证研究成为可能。随后的很多研究都把同一性发展归于个人因素,但这很难解释倒退现象,于是情境因素就被引入到同一性发展中来,现在许多研究者对于影响同一性发展的因素既有情境因素又有个人因素这一点已达成共识,并提出一些理论模型。与此同时,另有一些研究者希望探求到自我同一性这一构念与其它构念间的关系。同一性构念效度及其发展机制以及同一性构念与其它构念之间的关系仍是未来研究方向     

大学生生活满意度与精神信仰关系的研究

对 1 1 0 0名大学生进行生活满意度和精神信仰问卷调查。通过回归分析发现 ,生活满意度与精神信仰存在一定关系 :( 1 )社会发展满意度对神灵崇拜有显著的负向预测作用 ,对政治信仰、民族主义和国家主义信仰有显著的正向预测作用 ;( 2 )物质生活满意度对金钱崇拜有显著的负向预测作用 ;( 3 )社会适应满意度对家族崇拜有显著的负向预测作用。     

Regression away from the mean: Theory and examples

Using a standard repeated measures model with arbitrary true score distribution and normal error variables, we present some fundamental closed-form results which explicitly indicate the conditions under which regression effects towards (RTM) and away from the mean are expected. Specifically, we show that for skewed and bimodal distributions many or even most cases will show a regression effect that is in expectation away from the mean, or that is not just towards but actually beyond the mean. We illustrate our results in quantitative detail with typical examples from experimental and biometric applications, which exhibit a clear regression away from the mean (‘egression from the mean’) signature. We aim not to repeal cautionary advice against potential RTM effects, but to present a balanced view of regression effects, based on a clear identification of the conditions governing the form that regression effects take in repeated measures designs.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals for principal covariates regression

Principal covariate regression (PCOVR) is a method for regressing a set of criterion variables with respect to a set of predictor variables when the latter are many in number and/or collinear. This is done by extracting a limited number of components that simultaneously synthesize the predictor variables and predict the criterion ones. So far, no procedure has been offered for estimating statistical uncertainties of the obtained PCOVR parameter estimates. The present paper shows how this goal can be achieved, conditionally on the model specification, by means of the bootstrap approach. Four strategies for estimating bootstrap confidence intervals are derived and their statistical behaviour in terms of coverage is assessed by means of a simulation experiment. Such strategies are distinguished by the use of the varimax and quartimin procedures and by the use of Procrustes rotations of bootstrap solutions towards the sample solution. In general, the four strategies showed appropriate statistical behaviour, with coverage tending to the desired level for increasing sample sizes. The main exception involved strategies based on the quartimin procedure in cases characterized by complex underlying structures of the components. The appropriateness of the statistical behaviour was higher when the proper number of components were extracted.     

Simple and multiple P‐splines regression with shape constraints

In many research areas, especially within social and behavioural sciences, the relationship between predictor and criterion variables is often assumed to have a particular shape, such as monotone, single‐peaked or U‐shaped. Such assumptions can be transformed into (local or global) constraints on the sign of the nth‐order derivative of the functional form. To check for such assumptions, we present a non‐parametric regression method, P‐splines regression, with additional asymmetric discrete penalties enforcing the constraints. We show that the corresponding loss function is convex and present a Newton–Raphson algorithm to optimize. Constrained P‐splines are illustrated with an application on monotonicity‐constrained regression with both one and two predictor variables, using data from research on the cognitive development of children.     

A comparison of self-nominated and actual speeds in work zones

Despite significant research on drivers’ speeding behavior in work zones, little is known about how well drivers’ judgments of appropriate speeds match their actual speeds and what factors influence their judgments. This study aims to fill these two important gaps in the literature by comparing observed speeds in two work zones with drivers’ self-nominated speeds for the same work zones. In an online survey, drivers nominated speeds for the two work zones based on photographs in which the actual posted speed limits were not revealed. A simultaneous equation modeling approach was employed to examine the effects of driver characteristics on their self-nominated speeds. The results showed that survey participants nominated lower speeds (corresponding to higher compliance rates) than those which were observed. Higher speeds were nominated by males than females, young and middle aged drivers than older drivers, and drivers with truck driving experience than those who drive only cars. Larger differences between nominated and observed speeds were found among car drivers than truck drivers. These differences suggest that self-nominated speeds might not be valid indicators of the observed work zone speeds and therefore should not be used as an alternative to observed speed data.