对学生学习成绩与社会行为的交叉滞后分析

采用二元交叉滞后回归分析法考察小学四、五年级学生和初中一、二年级学生在21个月中的学校适应与学习成绩之间的关系。结果发现,在同时性测量中,由教师评价获得的中小学生的社交领导能力、定向耐挫能力、果敢性社交技能得分和同伴积极提名分数与他们的学习成绩之间均存在正相关关系,而他们的攻击破坏得分、学习适应不良得分以及小学生的同伴消极提名分均与他们的学习成绩有显著的负相关关系。二元交叉滞后回归分析结果表明,小学生在前测中的社交领导能力得分、攻击破坏得分、定向耐挫得分、学习适应不良得分、果敢性社交技能得分同伴积极和消极提名得分均可以预测21个月后的学习成绩。对中学生来说,这种预测关系只在攻击破坏行为、定向耐挫行为中存在。中小学生的害羞抑制得分和焦虑抑郁得分与他们的学习成绩之间既没有同时性的相关关系,也没有滞后性的预测关系。     

Incremental Validity of Cognitions in a Clinical Case Formulation: An Intraindividual Test in a Case Example

Incremental validity, the ability of a measure to predict or explain variance over and above other measures, is an important psychometric characteristic of standardized measures, but has received little attention idiographically. Idiographic assessment may be an important part of developing a clinical case formulation, guiding treatment by developing an individualized understanding of the variables that trigger and maintain distress. This study examined whether the idiosyncratic cognitive schema hypothesized by a clinician in a cognitive case formulation explained distress incrementally over that of situational triggers. Using daily ratings of situational triggers, idiosyncratic cognitions, and distress, the incremental validity of cognitions in predicting each of six distress measures was tested in a case example using dynamic time series regression. The incremental variance explained by cognitions varied across the distress measures, suggesting that, in this case example, targeting thoughts and beliefs for treatment may be important for only certain types of distress.

等级效标分数的概率神经网络预测方法研究

针对基于统计学的等级效标分数预测存在的问题,提出了运用概率神经网络进行等级效标分数预测的方法。在20种条件下进行了计算机模拟实验,包括测验分数为单变量和多变量,以及各种水平的白噪声干扰条件,结果表明在测验分数为多变量的情况下,或者在有白噪声干扰的条件下,运用概率神经网络方法可以比统计学方法更好地对等级效标分数进行预测。     

工作家庭冲突对电讯人员工作倦怠和心理健康的影响

采用工作家庭冲突问卷、工作倦怠问卷（MBI-Gs）和一般健康状况问卷（GHQ-12）调查了某国营电讯公司526名员工。中介回归分析（Mediating Regressin Analysis）的结果显示,工作家庭冲突及其两个子成分（工作浸扰家庭和家庭浸扰工作）都对心理健康具有显著的负向影响;工作倦怠对工作家庭冲突影响心理健康具有完全中介作用;具体而言,工作浸扰家庭对心理健康的影响受情绪衰竭和玩世不恭的完全中介;家庭浸扰工作对心理健康的影响受工作倦怠所有三个子成分的完全中介。     

Offending Patterns of Serial Sex Offenders: Escalation,De‐escalation,and Consistency of Sexually Intrusive and Violent Behaviours

A series of stranger sexual assaults poses considerable obstacles for law enforcement officials. One such preoccupation is concerned with whether or not the offender will escalate in the severity of his behaviours with subsequent victims. The current study uses transition matrices to address whether or not the offending patterns of 72 serial stranger sex offenders change from one victim to the next as it pertains to their sexual acts and level of physical force used during the crime. Findings indicate that stability, specifically the offender's intrusive sexual acts and use of physical force, and versatility are present in this sample's offending patterns. To explain changes in offending patterns between victims, multinomial regression analyses indicate that situational factors and modus operandi strategies are important considerations. Implications for investigations are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The power of regression to the mean: A social norm study revisited

This research follows up on a study by Schultz et al. ( 2007 ), in which the effect of a social norm intervention on energy consumption was examined. The present studies included control groups to examine whether social norm effects would persist beyond regression to the mean. Both studies had a 2 (baseline consumption: below mean versus above mean) × 2 (message condition: no‐message control versus norm message) design . Based on baseline fruit ( Study 1 ) or unhealthy snack ( Study 2 ) consumption, students were classified as above mean or below mean for consumption. One week later, half of the students in the above‐mean and below‐mean groups received normative feedback; control groups did not. Neither study showed an effect of norm messages on behavior relative to control, providing evidence for regression to the mean as an alternative explanation. Findings highlight the importance of control groups to distinguish social norm intervention effects from mere regression to the mean.     

Metacognitive sensitivity of subjective reports of decisional confidence and visual experience

Previous studies provided contradicting results regarding metacognitive sensitivity estimated from subjective reports of confidence in comparison to subjective reports of visual experience. We investigated whether this effect of content of subjective reports is influenced by the statistical method to quantify metacognitive sensitivity. Comparing logistic regression and meta-d in a masked orientation task, a masked shape task, and a random-dot motion task, we observed metacognitive sensitivity of reports regarding decisional confidence was greater than of reports about visual experience irrespective of mathematical procedures. However, the relationship between subjective reports and the logistic transform of accuracy was often not linear, implying that logistic regression is not a consistent measure of metacognitive sensitivity. We argue that a science of consciousness would benefit from the assessment of both visual experience and decisional confidence, and recommend meta-d as measure of metacognitive sensitivity for future studies.     

Using Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression

The previously unknown asymptotic distribution of Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression is established as a linear combination of independent chi‐square random variables with one degree of freedom. An exhaustive approach to the analysis of influential covariates is developed and a new measure for the accuracy of predictions based on such a distribution is provided. Two examples with real data sets (one with continuous covariates and the other with both qualitative and quantitative covariates) are presented to illustrate the approach developed.     

Equivalence tests for comparing correlation and regression coefficients

Equivalence tests are an alternative to traditional difference‐based tests for demonstrating a lack of association between two variables. While there are several recent studies investigating equivalence tests for comparing means, little research has been conducted on equivalence methods for evaluating the equivalence or similarity of two correlation coefficients or two regression coefficients. The current project proposes novel tests for evaluating the equivalence of two regression or correlation coefficients derived from the two one‐sided tests (TOST) method (Schuirmann, 1987, J. Pharmacokinet. Biopharm, 15, 657) and an equivalence test by Anderson and Hauck (1983, Stat. Commun., 12, 2663). A simulation study was used to evaluate the performance of these tests and compare them with the common, yet inappropriate, method of assessing equivalence using non‐rejection of the null hypothesis in difference‐based tests. Results demonstrate that equivalence tests have more accurate probabilities of declaring equivalence than difference‐based tests. However, equivalence tests require large sample sizes to ensure adequate power. We recommend the Anderson–Hauck equivalence test over the TOST method for comparing correlation or regression coefficients.