The Aggregated Consequences of Motivated Reasoning and the Dynamics of Partisan Presidential Approval

Research in political psychology has shown the importance of motivated reasoning as a prism through which individuals view the political world. From this we develop the hypothesis that, with strong positive beliefs firmly in place, partisan groups ignore or discount information about the performance of political figures they like. We then speculate about how this tendency should manifest itself in presidential approval ratings and test our hypotheses using monthly presidential approval data disaggregated by party identification for the 1955–2005 period. Our results show that partisan groups generally do reward and punish presidents for economic performance, but only those presidents of the opposite party. We also develop a model of presidential approval for self-identified Independents and, finally, a model of the partisan gap , the difference in approval between Democrat and Republican identifiers.     

Reasoning with conditionals

This paper reviews the psychological investigation of reasoning with conditionals, putting an emphasis on recent work. In the first part, a few methodological remarks are presented. In the second part, the main theories of deductive reasoning (mental rules, mental models, and the probabilistic approach) are considered in turn; their content is summarised and the semantics they assume for if and the way they explain formal conditional reasoning are discussed, in particular in the light of experimental work on the probability of conditionals. The last part presents the recent shift of interest towards the study of conditional reasoning in context, that is, with large knowledge bases and uncertain premises.     

进化频率表征对统计推理（非）灵活性的影响：认知风格和简要提示不影响贝叶斯推理

当形式操纵有助于贝叶斯推理时会有怎样的加工发生呢？一种观点认为自然取样的频率可以激发在其操作中具有相对特异性的特权表征系统。而与之相对的一种观点则认为,自然取样频率只是引发具有嵌套关系的更为普遍的加工的一种方式。比较两种观点,后者预示着只需要使用相当简要和直接的干预（如简单的指示）就能够促进推理的改善,而前者则意味着更为广泛的干预和/或更有洞见的理解才能改善推理。本研究表明,无论是短暂立即的干预,还是预存的表征偏向,抑或是表征的灵活性都不能促进被试的表现。另一方面,也有证据显示,频率论者的问题解释可以改善统计推理表现,而且有时还会增加其反应的信心。这些结果支持了特权表征系统观     

Adaptive non-interventional heuristics for covariation detection in causal induction: model comparison and rational analysis

In this article, 41 models of covariation detection from 2 × 2 contingency tables were evaluated against past data in the literature and against data from new experiments. A new model was also included based on a limiting case of the normative phi-coefficient under an extreme rarity assumption, which has been shown to be an important factor in covariation detection (McKenzie & Mikkelsen, 2007) and data selection (Hattori, 2002; Oaksford & Chater, 1994, 2003). The results were supportive of the new model. To investigate its explanatory adequacy, a rational analysis using two computer simulations was conducted. These simulations revealed the environmental conditions and the memory restrictions under which the new model best approximates the normative model of covariation detection in these tasks. They thus demonstrated the adaptive rationality of the new model.     

概率的不同表征对贝叶斯推理的影响的研究

该研究以贝叶斯推算、判断为实验任务,探讨了三种概率表征(百分比、自然频率、概率词)、三种概率规则认识水平对贝叶斯推理的影响,结果表明:1)概率词表征的贝叶斯推算实质是判断过程。2)在三种概率表征中,频率表征更适合于正确完成贝叶斯推理,但存在学科背景的差异。3)贝叶斯推理使用的策略有正确规则、错误规则、命题知识、概率简捷式、直觉和个人意愿六种。4)贝叶斯判断的正确率高于贝叶斯推算,个体在贝叶斯判断上使用的正确规则多于贝叶斯推算过程。     

《周易》与类比推理

中国古代无逻辑的观点源自逻辑一元论。本文认为,人类思维形式的多样性决定了逻辑的多元性。人类对思维形式的认识,还处于初期阶段;随着人类认识活动的不断发展,新的思维形式还会层出不穷。由于文化背景的差异,不同地区的人对思维形式的选择不尽相同。西方人注重演绎,中国人注重类比。《周易》就是一个属于类比性质的符号推理系统,一直规范影响着中国人的思维活动。华夏民族将象形文字发展为象意文字,决定了"以象尽意"的《周易》符号推理系统的形成。中国人注重体悟自然、追寻智慧的求道精神,是《周易》推理系统得以千年传承的哲学基础。类比推理是中国文化发展的必然选择,也是中国文化继往开来的主要思维方式。     

大学生媒体影响、体重指数和身体自尊的关系

采用问卷测量法,考察了432名大学生的媒体影响、体重指数与身体自尊的关系。结果表明:(1)媒体影响、现实体重指数、理想体重指数和身体自尊各个分量表之间存在明显的相关关系;(2)根据变量的相关关系构建的结构方程模型有着较为理想的拟合指数,表明媒体影响、体重指数对身体自尊有着直接或间接的影响作用。     

Do 12.5-month-old infants consider what objects others can see when interpreting their actions?

The present research examined whether 12.5-month-old infants take into account what objects an agent knows to be present in a scene when interpreting the agent's actions. In two experiments, the infants watched a female human agent repeatedly reach for and grasp object-A as opposed to object-B on an apparatus floor. Object-B was either (1) visible to the agent through a transparent screen; (2) hidden from the agent (but not the infants) by an opaque screen; or (3) placed by the agent herself behind the opaque screen, so that even though she could no longer see object-B, she knew of its presence there. The infants interpreted the agent's repeated actions toward object-A as revealing a preference for object-A over object-B only when she could see object-B (1) or was aware of its presence in the scene (3). These results indicate that, when watching an agent act on objects in a scene, 12.5-month-old infants keep track of the agent's representation of the physical setting in which these actions occur. If the agent's representation is incomplete, because the agent is ignorant about some aspect of the setting, infants use the agent's representation, rather than their own more complete representation, to interpret the agent's actions.     

Relations between general goal orientations and task-specific self-appraisals

Abstract:   The purpose of the present study was to examine the influence of goal orientations on ninth-grade students' (54 girls and 55 boys) task-specific appraisals (i.e., anticipated interest, self-efficacy, test anxiety, and physical symptoms) and subsequent task performance. The results of structural equation modeling showed that different goal orientations had different effects on task-specific appraisals. In addition, task performance was directly influenced by self-efficacy and physical symptoms, whereas the goal orientation served as a predictor of task performance indirectly through task-specific appraisals. Students' posttask estimation of success and involvement were differently predicted by the pretask appraisal and actual task performance. Thus self-appraisals that students experience after performing the task are not only influenced by the actual performance, but also by the task-related appraisal they form before the task, which is partially determined by their goal orientations. Cluster analysis revealed students with multiple goals, in whom learning and performance goals can work together to facilitate performance and motivation.     

Spirituality and the Health of College Students

Objectives  The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between spirituality and health risks of college students. Methods  Undergraduate students enrolled in Personal Health and Wellness classes at The University of Tennessee were selected to participate in the study. Two-hundred twenty-one students were administered two instruments: The College Student Appraisal of Risks Survey (The CARS) and the Spirituality Scale (SS). Results  Significant relationships between self-reported levels of spirituality and the health of college students were indicated during the study. Conclusions  College students integrating a spiritual component while processing decisions about risks that could negatively affect their health experienced better health outcomes. The significance of the study is that this research is an important step toward understanding the role that spirituality plays in the various dimensions of health in young adults.