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101.
文字概率是衡量不确定性的方式之一, 即人们使用诸如“也许”、“未必”的词汇来描述特定事件发生的可能性。文字概率不同于数字概率, 主要体现在文字概率的模糊性、非概率运算性和语义特性上。这使得相对于数字概率, 用文字概率衡量不确定性既有优势也有问题, 进而对人们的不确定信息沟通和风险决策造成影响。虽然文字概率与数字概率存在特征上的差异并且人们在日常交流中偏爱文字概率, 但是大部分风险领域的研究却仅局限于数字概率, 今后有必要研究使用文字概率测量的风险决策。在已有文字概率特征研究的基础上, 还可以进一步探究其不同于数字概率的其它特征(文字/数字概率与双系统模型的联系、文字概率的跨文化差异等)及其对风险决策的影响。 相似文献
102.
Steven S. Posavac;Donald R. Gaffney;Frank R. Kardes; 《决策行为杂志》2024,37(2):e2371
Five experiments were conducted to explore trait impulsivity as a possible contributor to the magnitude of the Brand Positivity Effect, and to provide a more sophisticated empirical account of the role of selective processing in driving it than reported in prior research. Although the experiments considered very different choice categories including a product, a service, an experience, and a public good, data were convergent in several ways: (a) the Brand Positivity Effect in judgment, choice intention, and non-hypothetical choice was replicated, (b) non-intrusive process-tracing methodology established that selective processing is related to the magnitude of the Brand Positivity Effect, and (c) the Brand Positivity Effect was demonstrated to be a robust phenomenon that is observed regardless of individuals' trait impulsivity. 相似文献
103.
Mark J. Rzeszutek Anthony DeFulio Hayley D. Brown Cristal Cardoso São Mateus 《Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior》2023,119(2):300-323
The COVID-19 pandemic provided an opportunity to investigate factors related to public response to public health measures, which could help better prepare implementation of similar measures for inevitable future pandemics. To understand individual and environmental factors that influence likelihood in engaging in personal and public health measures, three crowdsourced convenience samples from Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) completed likelihood-discounting tasks of engaging in health behaviors given a variety of hypothetical viral outbreak scenarios. Experiment 1 assessed likelihood of mask wearing for a novel virus. Experiment 2 assessed vaccination likelihood based on efficacy and cost. Experiment 3 assessed likelihood of seeking health care based on number of symptoms and cost of treatment. Volume-based measures and three-dimensional modeling were used to analyze hypothetical decision making. Hypothetical public and personal health participation increased as viral fatality increased and generally followed a hyperbolic function. Public health participation was moderated by political orientation and trust in science, whereas treatment-seeking was only moderated by income. Analytic methods used in this cross-sectional study predicted population-level outcomes that occurred later in the pandemic and can be extended to various health behaviors. 相似文献
104.
The appeal to expert opinion is an argument form that uses the verdict of an expert to support a position or hypothesis. A previous scheme‐based treatment of the argument form is formalized within a Bayesian network that is able to capture the critical aspects of the argument form, including the central considerations of the expert's expertise and trustworthiness. We propose this as an appropriate normative framework for the argument form, enabling the development and testing of quantitative predictions as to how people evaluate this argument, suggesting that such an approach might be beneficial to argumentation research generally. We subsequently present two experiments as an example of the potential for future research in this vein, demonstrating that participants' quantitative ratings of the convincingness of a proposition that has been supported with an appeal to expert opinion were broadly consistent with the predictions of the Bayesian model. 相似文献
105.
《Cognition》2014,130(3):335-347
Reasoning under uncertainty is the bread and butter of everyday life. Many areas of psychology, from cognitive, developmental, social, to clinical, are interested in how individuals make inferences and decisions with incomplete information. The ability to reason under uncertainty necessarily involves probability computations, be they exact calculations or estimations. What are the developmental origins of probabilistic reasoning? Recent work has begun to examine whether infants and toddlers can compute probabilities; however, previous experiments have confounded quantity and probability—in most cases young human learners could have relied on simple comparisons of absolute quantities, as opposed to proportions, to succeed in these tasks. We present four experiments providing evidence that infants younger than 12 months show sensitivity to probabilities based on proportions. Furthermore, infants use this sensitivity to make predictions and fulfill their own desires, providing the first demonstration that even preverbal learners use probabilistic information to navigate the world. These results provide strong evidence for a rich quantitative and statistical reasoning system in infants. 相似文献
106.
107.
In everyday decision making, people often face decisions with outcomes that differ on multiple dimensions. The trade‐off in preferences between magnitude, temporal proximity, and probability of an outcome is a fundamental concern in the decision‐making literature. Yet, their joint effects on behavior in an experience‐based decision‐making task are understudied. Two experiments examined the relative influences of the magnitude and probability of an outcome when both were increasing over a 10‐second delay. A first‐person shooter video game was adapted for this purpose. Experiment 1 showed that participants waited longer to ensure a higher probability of the outcome than to ensure a greater magnitude when experienced separately and together. Experiment 2 provided a precise method of comparing their relative control on waiting by having each increase at different rates. Both experiments revealed a stronger influence of increasing probability than increasing magnitude. The results were more consistent with hyperbolic discounting of probability than with cumulative prospect theory's decision weight function. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
108.
Owners tend to overvalue possessions relative to non‐owners: a phenomenon known as the endowment effect. In three experiments, using markets for goods of uncertain value, we investigated whether this can be partly attributed to misperceiving an asset's profitability or to uncertainty about a good's utility. To test our hypotheses, we devised the Balloon Endowment Risk Task, in which participants can sell or buy their right to participate in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. Once purchased/retained, a virtual balloon is pumped to accrue money, which is lost if the balloon bursts. Participants first learn about the risky asset (balloon) by observing others playing the Balloon Analogue Risk Task before they enter the market. In Experiment 1, we replicated the endowment effect; yet, owners and non‐owners predicted pumping the same number of times and subsequently did so when given that opportunity. In Experiments 2 and 3, the level of uncertainty about the balloon's profitability was manipulated by modifying the number of bursts that participants viewed in the initial learning stage. When more diagnostic information was provided, making the average burst point easier to estimate and reducing value uncertainty and increasing confidence in valuation, the endowment effect diminished although mean estimates of the average burst point did not differ between owners and non‐owners. Thus, endowment effects were partly attributable to value uncertainty but could not be explained by owners and non‐owners having divergent perceptions of the asset's payoff distribution. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
109.
110.
Blair P. Lloyd Craig H. Kennedy Paul J. Yoder 《Journal of applied behavior analysis》2013,46(2):479-497