Do medical decision analyses' largest gains grow from the smallest trees?

Some decision analysts recommend reserving their models for careful, complete study of complex problems. Others believe simple problem analyses provide the greatest gains. To clarify these issues, I tested: (1) whether simple published analyses compared to complex ones, produced results as non-intuitive; and (2) whether non-intuitiveness represented analytic gain (or equivalently, intuitive loss). Very limited data also examined (3) the gain from adding model intricacy for a given problem vs. selecting more complex problems for analysis. To assess two non-intuitiveness measures, 75 subjects (33 physicians and 42) non-physicians stated their intuitive preferences in 40 (22 published and 18 unpublished) medical dilemmas. For both physicians and non-physicians, simpler models (those with lees than 30 terminal branches in the decision tree) had about one third the non-intuitiveness of more complex ones. Three tests also supported the premise that analyses outperform intuition, therefore that on average the formers' non-intuitiveness reflects less analytic gain. In addition, for different models of the same problem, tree complexity did not correlate with gain. Thus, simpler trees may not generally gain less because they inadequately describe problems. Instead, simpler analyses may represent simpler problems, with more similar intuitive and formal solutions. If so, these findings may help us avoid some costly but unnecessary simple analyses.     

Reducing residential electrical energy use: payments, information, and feedback

Monetary payments, energy information, and daily feedback on consumption were employed to reduce electricity use in four units of a university student housing complex. A combined multiple-baseline and withdrawal design permitted both within- and between-unit comparisons. Payments produced immediate and substantial reductions in consumption in all units, even when the magnitude of the payments was reduced considerably. Feedback also produced reductions, but information about ways to conserve and about the cost of using various appliances did not. It was also found that, in general, payments combined with either information or feedback produced no greater effect than payments alone.     

Clock control of human performance on avoidance and fixed-interval schedules

The avoidance and fixed-interval performances of human subjects were studied in two experiments. Addition of time-correlated stimuli (added clock) improved behavioral efficiency, since response rates decreased without decreases in reinforcement rates. Response-dependent display of the clock maintained a second, observing response and reductions in clock duration weakened such observing behavior. Generally, the reinforcing properties of the clock were more apparent with the avoidance than with the fixed-interval schedule, a finding attributed to temporal cues already provided by delivery of the fixed-interval reinforcers. Reduced rates of the main response when the clock was dependent on an observing response were more than offset by rates of the observing response in the majority of subjects. Thus, the results do not support an interpretation of the reinforcing properties of added clocks simply in terms of work reduction.     

Spread of Risk Information Through Microblogs: Twitter Users with More Mutual Connections Relay News That is More Dreadful1

In elucidating the spread of risk information through microblogging, it is important to understand the behaviors of numerous average users, in addition to the activities of authorities. We followed the transmission pathways of 10 actual widely spread tweets concerning several risk information topics, including natural disasters, nuclear disasters, and infectious diseases, and we identified the types of risk that affected retweeting by classifying each tweet based on Slovic's risk-perception model. Furthermore, we examined the types of users who did and did not retweet the information. Users with few connections in the form of followers (i.e., people who are following a user) or followees (people a user is following), or with a low ratio of mutual followers within their connections, had a tendency to retweet a large amount of risk information, regardless of the type of risk involved. On the other hand, users with a high ratio of mutual followers exhibited a greater tendency to retweet risk information when it was perceived as dreadful, though they did not retweet risk information much on the whole. These results suggest that there are two mechanisms by which risk information is spread within the Twitter network: information exchange and social sharing of personal reactions.     

A note on computing Louis’ observed information matrix identity for IRT and cognitive diagnostic models

Using Louis’ formula, it is possible to obtain the observed information matrix and the corresponding large-sample standard error estimates after the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm has converged. However, Louis’ formula is commonly de-emphasized due to its relatively complex integration representation, particularly when studying latent variable models. This paper provides a holistic overview that demonstrates how Louis’ formula can be applied efficiently to item response theory (IRT) models and other popular latent variable models, such as cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs). After presenting the algebraic components required for Louis’ formula, two real data analyses, with accompanying numerical illustrations, are presented. Next, a Monte Carlo simulation is presented to compare the computational efficiency of Louis’ formula with previously existing methods. Results from these presentations suggest that Louis’ formula should be adopted as a standard method when computing the observed information matrix for IRT models and CDMs fitted with the EM algorithm due to its computational efficiency and flexibility.     

The effects of exposure to political and domestic violence on preschool children and their mothers

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of exposure to political violence on preschool children and their mothers. We explored whether these dyads are different from dyads with no known history of exposure to violence and from mother–child dyads with known exposure to domestic violence. Specifically, we explored differences in mothers' psychological status (depression and anxiety), dyadic emotional availability (EA), children's social information processing, and children's social behaviour, in a sample of 216 dyads divided into three groups (exposure to political violence, no exposure to violence, and exposure to domestic violence). We found evidence to support our hypotheses that children exposed to domestic violence exhibit the highest levels of social maladjustment with smaller but still significant differences between children exposed to political violence and children in the comparison group. As expected, the lowest EA scores were found in the exposure to domestic violence group, followed by dyads in the exposure to political violence group. Dyads belonging to the comparison group (no exposure) exhibited the highest levels of EA. These findings contribute to our understanding of the meaning of exposure to political violence, as well as sharpen the difference between exposure to political and domestic violence.     

概念内隐记忆中的注意促进效应

Swallow和Jiang (2010)最早发现, 编码时的目标探测会促进同时呈现的背景信息在随后记忆测验中的表现, 并将这一现象称为注意促进效应(Attentional Boost Effect, ABE)。随后研究发现这一现象并不会出现在概念内隐测验中, 由此提出目标探测主要促进的是背景信息的知觉加工, 而非语义加工。本研究通过3个实验, 操纵了对背景信息的编码加工类型(知觉加工或概念加工)。结果发现, 当与目标探测同时进行的是对背景信息的概念加工任务, 则ABE会出现在随后的概念内隐测验中。反之, 当对背景信息进行的是知觉加工任务时, 则ABE会出现在随后的知觉内隐测验而不是概念内隐测验中。这些结果表明, 目标探测既可能促进背景信息的知觉加工, 也可能促进背景信息的语义加工, 但只有在目标探测下背景信息的编码加工与随后内隐测验中所依赖的提取加工具有一致性, 才会产生ABE。     

汉语发展性阅读障碍儿童视觉同时性加工技能子成分的发展及其与阅读的关系

通过分别以高频汉字(实验1)和图形非言语材料(实验2)为刺激的两个联合视觉注意任务, 并采用基于Budensen视觉注意理论的参数估计方法, 系统地探查小学三~六年级汉语发展性阅读障碍儿童的视觉同时性加工技能缺陷的内在机制。以43名汉语发展性阅读障碍儿童和46名生理年龄匹配典型发展儿童为被试, 每类被试均被分为小学中年级组(三、四年级)和高年级组(五、六年级)。两个实验均发现不同年级组的阅读障碍儿童在知觉加工速度参数上显著小于控制组儿童。在空间注意分布权重参数上, 实验1的结果显示, 不同于控制组儿童向左侧化发展的注意分布模式, 两个年级组的阅读障碍儿童均表现为无偏的注意分布; 而实验2未发现显著组别差异。且这两种同时性加工子技能分别与不同水平的汉语阅读技能密切相关。结果表明, 汉语阅读障碍儿童在同时加工多个视觉刺激时存在持续的知觉加工速度缓慢的问题, 在同时加工言语类刺激时还表现出异常的空间注意分布模式。本研究有助于从基础认知层面揭示汉语发展性阅读障碍儿童的缺陷机理, 为进一步设计相关的提高阅读效率的干预方案提供理论依据。     

Linguistic Distributional Knowledge and Sensorimotor Grounding both Contribute to Semantic Category Production

The human conceptual system comprises simulated information of sensorimotor experience and linguistic distributional information of how words are used in language. Moreover, the linguistic shortcut hypothesis predicts that people will use computationally cheaper linguistic distributional information where it is sufficient to inform a task response. In a pre-registered category production study, we asked participants to verbally name members of concrete and abstract categories and tested whether performance could be predicted by a novel measure of sensorimotor similarity (based on an 11-dimensional representation of sensorimotor strength) and linguistic proximity (based on word co-occurrence derived from a large corpus). As predicted, both measures predicted the order and frequency of category production but, critically, linguistic proximity had an effect above and beyond sensorimotor similarity. A follow-up study using typicality ratings as an additional predictor found that typicality was often the strongest predictor of category production variables, but it did not subsume sensorimotor and linguistic effects. Finally, we created a novel, fully grounded computational model of conceptual activation during category production, which best approximated typical human performance when conceptual activation was allowed to spread indirectly between concepts, and when candidate category members came from both sensorimotor and linguistic distributional representations. Critically, model performance was indistinguishable from typical human performance. Results support the linguistic shortcut hypothesis in semantic processing and provide strong evidence that both linguistic and grounded representations are inherent to the functioning of the conceptual system. All materials, data, and code are available at https://osf.io/vaq56/ .