Marginalized maximum a posteriori estimation for the four-parameter logistic model under a mixture modelling framework

The four-parameter logistic model (4PLM) has recently attracted much interest in various applications. Motivated by recent studies that re-express the four-parameter model as a mixture model with two levels of latent variables, this paper develops a new expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for marginalized maximum a posteriori estimation of the 4PLM parameters. The mixture modelling framework of the 4PLM not only makes the proposed EM algorithm easier to implement in practice, but also provides a natural connection with popular cognitive diagnosis models. Simulation studies were conducted to show the good performance of the proposed estimation method and to investigate the impact of the additional upper asymptote parameter on the estimation of other parameters. Moreover, a real data set was analysed using the 4PLM to show its improved performance over the three-parameter logistic model.     

现阶段我国城市居民消费心理预期的性质与特点

采用自编《消费心理预期问卷》对1097名城市被试进行了研究,结果表明：1．《消费心理预期问卷》具有较高的信度和效度;2．消费心理预期是由五个因素构成的：宏观经济形势预期、个人生活与收入预期、政府经济政策预期、物价走势预期和突发事件预防预期;3．现阶段,我国城市居民的消费心理预期普遍比较消极．甚至悲观;4．影响消费心理预期的因素是多维的,其中?肖费者的性别、年龄、学历、工作单位和所在城市等变量都是直接影响心理预期的一些重要因素,即不同性别、年龄、学历、工作单位和城市的消费者对未来存在着不同的心理预期。     

初中生同伴圈子的发展及其对合作倾向、预期和行为的影响

在社会化过程中,同伴圈子不仅决定儿童青少年的交往范围和互动质量,而且影响其心理发展和社会适应。本研究从苏州市某初级中学选取768名初一学生进行了为期一年的追踪,采用社会认知地图、合作倾向评定量表和公共物品困境实验范式测查了同伴圈子、合作倾向、预期与合作行为,运用多层线性模型技术（Two-level HLM）探讨同伴圈子的合作水平对个体合作水平的影响。结果发现：（1）女生圈子数量最多而规模最小,男女混合圈子规模最大而数量最少;跨地域圈子数量最多且规模最大;（2）女生圈子最为稳定,男女混合圈子最不稳定;（3）在混合性别圈子中,个体的合作预期与行为更容易随着圈子合作预期水平的提高而增强;而在单性别圈子中,个体的合作预期与行为更容易随着圈子合作行为水平的提高而增强。结论：初中生同伴圈子在性别上具有同质性,女生圈子多且稳定;第一年单性别和混合性别圈子的合作倾向、预期和行为水平对第二年个体的合作水平产生了不同影响,即不同性别圈子对个体的影响模式存在差异。     

An Intelligence Survey of a Typical Town School

In this study, the authors investigated the relation between early social contingency experiences and infants' competencies to detect nonsocial contingencies. In this study of 87 three-month-old infants, the authors operationalized early social contingencies as prompt, contingent maternal responses and coded microanalytically on the basis of video-recorded mother-infant interactions. The authors assessed competence to detect nonsocial contingencies by 2 methods: (a) the mobile conjugate reinforcement paradigm, which focuses on detecting contingencies between the infants' actions (kicking) and nonsocial consequences (mobile moving) and (b) the visual expectation paradigm, which focuses on detecting contingencies between 1 event (a smiley face projected on a screen) that was followed by a 2nd event (a complex picture projected on the other side of the screen). The results showed that early social contingencies are related to the competency to detect nonsocial action-consequence contingencies in the mobile conjugate reinforcement paradigm.     

Output order reflects the cognitive accessibility of goals

Goal accessibility--the ease or speed with which a goal is activated--increases the likelihood that it will be acted on. The present studies validate output order as a measure of goal accessibility that can be applied to goal lists in both laboratory and naturalistic settings. In three studies, output order (the order in which goals are listed in a free-response format) was related to self-reported goal value but was not redundant with it. Furthermore, output order was affected by motivational priming whereas value was not, and order associated with typical student goals (e.g., achievement) compared with atypical goals (e.g., power). Output order is well suited to bring the study of accessibility to naturalistic studies of goals and goal pursuit.     

A Web Replication of Snyder,Decker, and Bersheid's (1977) Experiment on the Self-Fulfilling Nature of Social Stereotypes

Abstract

Authors instructed two groups of male participants to respond to a web personal advertisement that had a photograph of either an attractive or unattractive woman. In the physically attractiveness condition, it was found that the message was longer and contained few spelling and grammatical mistakes than in the condition where the male's participant believe that the personal advertisement came from an unattractive woman. Two undergradutates females who were unaware of the experimental conditions judged that they had more probability to respond to the male's message in the physically attractiveness condition.     

Future-oriented emotions in the prediction of binge-drinking intention and expectation: the role of anticipated and anticipatory emotions

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) offers a parsimonious explanation of purposive behavior, but in the study of healthy and risk behaviors its sufficiency may be questioned. Working with binge-drinking, a very common risk behavior in Spanish undergraduate students, we used two strategies for improving predictions from TPB: using behavioral intention (BI) and behavioral expectation (BE) as proximal antecedents of behaviors and adding as new predictors two future-oriented emotions (anticipated and anticipatory). Hierarchical regression analyses show that while anticipated emotions improved TPB explanations of BI, anticipatory emotions improved the explanations of BE. The present results show the influence of future emotions in the prediction of behavioral intention and behavioral expectation.     

刍议现代普通外科的进展和展望

随着科学技术的进步,现代普通外科学科取得了突飞猛进的发展,其学科范畴不断扩大;微创外科和器官移植成为发展方向;高新材料和高新技术在临床逐渐应用;传统的外科处理方式不断改进和创新;通过基因水平诊断和治疗疾病成为可能;各种辅助治疗则增加了外科治疗的效果。     

A latent trait model for dichotomous choice data

The PARELLA model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. The data analyzed are the dichotomous responses of persons to stimuli, with a one (zero) indicating agreement (disagreement) with the content of the stimulus. The model provides a unidimensional representation of persons and items. The response probabilities are a function of the distance between person and stimulus: the smaller the distance, the larger the probability that a person will agree with the content of the stimulus. An estimation procedure based on expectation maximization and marginal maximum likelihood is developed and the quality of the resulting parameter estimates evaluated.I gratefully acknowledge Ivo Molenaar and Wijbrandt van Schuur for their advice and encouragement during the course of the investigation, Derk-Jan Kiewiet who constructed the program for the ML estimator for the person parameter and Anne Boomsma, Wendy Post, Tom Snijders, and David Thissen for their comments on smaller aspects of the investigation.     

Reconsidering the “aspiration–expectation gap” and assumed gender differences among urban youth

The present study investigated the relevance of the “aspiration–expectation gap” and traditional gender differences among urban youth in middle school and high school (N = 294). Results failed to indicate a significant difference between the occupational prestige levels of aspired and expected careers, but did indicate a significant difference between aspired and expected levels of education. In general, the proportion of girls significantly outweighed the proportion of boys in traditionally “masculine” occupations with high levels of prestige; girls also had higher levels of occupational prestige than boys in terms of careers they hoped and expected to obtain. Black and bi/multi-racial youth expected to have higher levels of education than White youth.