计算机化分类测验终止规则的类别、特点及应用

计算机化分类测验(Computerized Classification Testing, CCT)能够高效地对被试进行分类, 已广泛应用于合格性测验及临床心理学中。作为CCT的重要组成部分, 终止规则决定测验何时停止以及将被试最终划分到何种类别, 因此直接影响测验效率及分类准确率。已有的三大类终止规则(似然比规则、贝叶斯决策理论规则及置信区间规则)的核心思想分别为构造假设检验、设计损失函数和比较置信区间相对位置。同时, 在不同测验情境下, CCT的终止规则发展出不同的具体形式。未来研究可以继续开发贝叶斯规则、考虑多维多类别情境以及结合作答时间和机器学习算法。针对测验实际需求, 三类终止规则在合格性测验上均有应用潜力, 而临床问卷则倾向应用贝叶斯规则。     

Two-Stage maximum likelihood estimation in the misspecified restricted latent class model

The maximum likelihood classification rule is a standard method to classify examinee attribute profiles in cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs). Its asymptotic behaviour is well understood when the model is assumed to be correct, but has not been explored in the case of misspecified latent class models. This paper investigates the asymptotic behaviour of a two-stage maximum likelihood classifier under a misspecified CDM. The analysis is conducted in a general restricted latent class model framework addressing all types of CDMs. Sufficient conditions are proposed under which a consistent classification can be obtained by using a misspecified model. Discussions are also provided on the inconsistency of classification under certain model misspecification scenarios. Simulation studies and a real data application are conducted to illustrate these results. Our findings can provide some guidelines as to when a misspecified simple model or a general model can be used to provide a good classification result.     

认知诊断缺失数据处理方法的比较：零替换、多重插补与极大似然估计法

数据缺失在测验中经常发生, 认知诊断评估也不例外, 数据缺失会导致诊断结果的偏差。首先, 通过模拟研究在多种实验条件下比较了常用的缺失数据处理方法。结果表明：(1)缺失数据导致估计精确性下降, 随着人数与题目数量减少、缺失率增大、题目质量降低, 所有方法的PCCR均下降, Bias绝对值和RMSE均上升。(2)估计题目参数时, EM法表现最好, 其次是MI, FIML和ZR法表现不稳定。(3)估计被试知识状态时, EM和FIML表现最好, MI和ZR表现不稳定。其次, 在PISA2015实证数据中进一步探索了不同方法的表现。综合模拟和实证研究结果, 推荐选用EM或FIML法进行缺失数据处理。     

使用似然比D2统计量的题目属性定义方法

题目属性的定义是实施认知诊断评价的关键步骤, 通过有丰富经验的领域专家对题目的属性进行定义是当前的主要方法, 然而该方法受到许多主观经验因素的影响。寻找客观的题目属性定义或验证方法可以为主观定义过程提供策略支持或对结果进行改进, 因此已经引起研究者们的关注。本研究构建了一种简单高效的题目属性定义方法, 研究使用似然比D2统计量从作答数据中估计题目属性的方法, 实现属性掌握模式、题目参数和题目属性向量的联合估计。模拟研究结果表明, 使用似然比D2统计量可以有效地识别题目的属性向量, 该方法一方面可以实现新编制题目属性向量的在线估计, 另一方面可以验证已经定义的题目属性向量的准确性。     

Two Theories of Just War

As it is traditionally conceived, Just War Theory is not well suited for dealing with nation vs non-nation wars. It thus makes sense to create a second Just War Theory to deal with these wars. This article explores the differences and similarities between the two theories.

A Thurstonian Analysis of Preference Change

This paper presents a Thurstonian model for the analysis of preference change. Preferences are expressed in the form of rankings, possibly with ties. A vector-autoregression framework is used to investigate relationships between past and current rankings. It is shown that this approach yields a parsimonious and easily interpretable representation of individual preference differences in time-dependent ranking data. A detailed analysis of the 1992 National Election Study illustrates the proposed approach.     

The Relationship Between Applicant Reactions, the Likelihood of Complaints, and Organization Attractiveness

This study examined the effect of applicants' reactions to selection measures on complaint intentions and perceptions of organizational attractiveness. Despite recent challenges to selection tests for invasion of privacy, limited research has examined the link between specific reactions and potential legal challenges. As predicted, perceived invasiveness was significantly related to perceived likelihood of complaints for three selection measures. Further, perceived job relatedness was negatively related to likelihood of complaints for a test battery and a math test, but not for an integrity test. On the other hand, neither job relatedness nor invasiveness was significantly related to organizational attractiveness for any of the tests. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.     

个人目标相关性对非临床抑郁者未来想象的影响

通过两个实验考查了非临床抑郁者未来想象的异常是否受到个人目标相关性的调节。实验1采用未来想象任务, 实验2采用可能性评估范式, 两个实验一致发现, 抑郁倾向者想象未来积极事件的异常, 受到了与个人目标相关性的调节：相对于非抑郁倾向者, 抑郁倾向者对未来与个人目标相关的积极事件的预期减弱, 而对未来与个人目标无关的积极事件的预期则没有表现出异常; 同时还发现, 抑郁倾向者表现出了对未来消极预期的普遍增强, 不受与个人目标相关性的影响。     

Efficient nonparametric approaches for estimating the operating characteristics of discrete item responses

Rationale and the actual procedures of two nonparametric approaches, called Bivariate P.D.F. Approach and Conditional P.D.F. Approach, for estimating the operating characteristic of a discrete item response, or the conditional probability, given latent trait, that the examinee's response be that specific response, are introduced and discussed. These methods are featured by the facts that: (a) estimation is made without assuming any mathematical forms, and (b) it is based upon a relatively small sample of several hundred to a few thousand examinees.Some examples of the results obtained by the Simple Sum Procedure and the Differential Weight Procedure of the Conditional P.D.F. Approach are given, using simulated data. The usefulness of these nonparametric methods is also discussed.This research was mostly supported by the Office of Naval Research (N00014-77-C-0360, N00014-81-C-0569, N00014-87-K-0320, N00014-90-J-1456).     

Examining direct and indirect pathways to health behaviour: The influence of cognitive and affective probability beliefs

This study aimed to extricate the influence of rational (e.g. ‘I think …’) and intuitive (e.g. ‘I feel …’) probability beliefs in the behavioural decision-making process regarding skin cancer prevention practices. Structural equation modelling was used in two longitudinal surveys (sun protection during winter sports [N?=?491]; sun protection during summer [N?=?277]) to examine direct and indirect behavioural effects of affective and cognitive likelihood (i.e. unmediated or mediated by intention), controlled for attitude, social influence and self-efficacy. Affective likelihood was directly related to sun protection in both studies, whereas no direct effects were found for cognitive likelihood. After accounting for past sun protective behaviour, affective likelihood was only directly related to sun protection in Study 1. No support was found for the indirect effects of affective and cognitive likelihood through intention. The findings underscore the importance of feelings of (cancer) risk in the decision-making process and should be acknowledged by health behaviour theories and risk communication practices. Suggestions for future research are discussed.