Statistical inference and sensitivity to sampling in 11-month-old infants

Research on initial conceptual knowledge and research on early statistical learning mechanisms have been, for the most part, two separate enterprises. We report a study with 11-month-old infants investigating whether they are sensitive to sampling conditions and whether they can integrate intentional information in a statistical inference task. Previous studies found that infants were able to make inferences from samples to populations, and vice versa [Xu, F., & Garcia, V. (2008). Intuitive statistics by 8-month-old infants. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 5012-5015]. We found that when employing this statistical inference mechanism, infants are sensitive to whether a sample was randomly drawn from a population or not, and they take into account intentional information (e.g., explicitly expressed preference, visual access) when computing the relationship between samples and populations. Our results suggest that domain-specific knowledge is integrated with statistical inference mechanisms early in development.     

How do we evaluate future gambles? Experimental evidence on path dependency in risky intertemporal choice

This study reports three experiments which demonstrate path dependency in risky intertemporal choice. Consider a lottery to be resolved and paid in a future time period. One can obtain the present value of this lottery in three different ways: (1) eliciting directly the present certainty equivalent (CE) of the future lottery (direct path); (2) eliciting the future CE and then discounting this amount to the present (risk‐time path); and (3) eliciting the present value of the risky prospect and then determining the CE of this current lottery (time‐risk path). Standard rational choice models such as the discounted expected utility model, assume a multiplicative model, where all three methods mentioned above would yield the same value. We conducted three studies to examine if this is the case: Experiments 1 and 2 were based on a set of matching‐task questions and Experiment 3 used a process‐tracing design to analyze the natural sequence of decision making by the subjects. These three studies show that the evaluation of future gambles is path‐dependent. The present values elicited under the time‐risk and direct paths are, on average, higher than those reported under the risk‐time path. In addition, we found evidence for a two‐stage evaluation of risky future prospects: When evaluating a future gamble, individuals first assess the present value of the gamble (time discounting) and then they determine a certainty equivalent (probability discounting). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

互动视角的组织社会化动态跟踪研究

以3项不同时间尺度的跟踪研究, 探索新员工组织社会化的动态与交互过程。首先, 通过在入职最初3个月每月为期1周的即时调研, 探索新员工与主管的沟通特征与机制; 然后通过为期3个月、时间间隔为1周, 针对新员工与其主管的配对短期跟踪调研, 探索社会化过程中学习与认同的动态特征与内部变化机制, 以及互动作用的动态变化特征; 最后通过为期1年、时间间隔为3个月的长期跟踪调研, 考察新员工主动参与组织社会化、领导者主动提供社会化支持的影响因素, 以及组织社会化的结果。     

城市居民参加体育锻炼的动机路径模型建构

基于自我决定理论,调查350名体育锻炼者以构建城市居民体育锻炼的动机路径模型。结果表明：自主型动机与自主性支持、基本心理需求、锻炼意向有正相关,外在调节与前述各变量均有负相关,而内摄调节与前述各变量无显著相关,可能受中国传统“文弱”审美观念及现代生活压力影响;结构方程拟合结果支持嵌套中介模型,即社会体育指导员的自主性支持可正向直接预测锻炼意向,亦可通过基本心理需求、自主型动机和基本心理需求×自主型动机三个中介变量正向间接预测锻炼意向。     

虚拟路径整合的学习效应

路径整合指通过自身运动信息对自身位置进行更新的过程。本研究使用头盔式虚拟现实系统和分段式迷宫, 在两个实验中检验在同样布局的外出路径上重复地进行路径完成任务是否会改善被试的反应表现。实验1中的外出路径具有相对较简单的空间布局, 实验结果表明, 男性和女性被试均在反应时、位置误差、角度误差上表现出了学习效应, 即第二次在同样空间布局的外出路径上进行路径完成任务时的表现比第一次有了显著的改善。实验2中的外出路径具有更复杂多样化的空间布局, 而实验结果表明, 男性和女性被试均在反应时和比例位置误差上表现出了学习效应, 但是路径更复杂时要求更多次数的重复才可以提高路径整合成绩。这些研究结果为路径整合能力训练的可行性提供了初步的实证依据。     

统计概要表征的内容与机制

人类能够快速提取集合刺激中的统计信息, 并形成以集中趋势和变异性为主要内容的统计概要表征。根据注意资源的使用, 统计概要表征的加工方式可分为分布式注意下的整体加工和聚焦注意下的个体加工。两种加工在工作记忆中相互影响, 共同构建了对集合刺激的表征。统计概要表征适用于多种刺激类型, 发生在低水平和高水平加工中, 因而可能是一种普遍的知觉加工方式。未来研究可关注统计概要表征的神经基础及其对决策的影响。     

Do People Order Cues by Retrieval Fluency when Making Probabilistic Inferences?

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inferences, people infer alternatives' unknown values on decision criteria, using alternatives' attributes as cues. Some inferential strategies, like take‐the‐best, assume that people consider relevant cues sequentially in order of decreasing validity. This assumption has been deemed cognitively implausible by some, who suggest memory retrieval principles to guide cue order. We test whether memory‐based inferences are better described by a model considering cues in order of validity or in order of memory retrieval. In an experiment, we manipulated the frequency with which cues appeared in a learning phase, increasing retrieval fluency of cue values related to the more frequently appearing cue. In a subsequent decision phase, participants made a series of two‐alternative decisions based on the learned cue values. We compared two sequential sampling models, which differed in whether cues are sampled in order of subjective cue validity or in order of retrieval fluency. To model retrieval order of cues in the fluency sampling model, we used the declarative memory theory embedded in the ACT‐R cognitive architecture. Most participants' decisions were best described by the model sampling cues in order of memory retrieval. Only a minority of participants were classified as sampling cues by validity. Our result suggests that retrieval fluency is the primary driver of cue order in inferences from memory, irrespective of the cues' validities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Examination of the Relationship Between the Five Stages of the Yogacara Path to Enlightenment (唯識五位) and the Ten Ox-Herding Pictures (十牛圖)

This study proposed to compare and analyze the five stages of cultivating the Yogâcāra path (唯識五位) and the spiritual journey in the Ten Ox-Herding Pictures (十牛圖). To achieve this, the study investigated the core concepts and practice methods of the two approaches and analyzed their relations from the literatures reviewed. The results showed that the end goal of the two approaches is the same, the attainment of Buddhahood, with the two having common characteristics including the practice of being aware of the impermanent and no-self (無常·無我), and the fulfilling benefit of sentient beings. The results suggest that our Buddhist practice system needs to sincerely consider the realistic ways by which one can help people in agony in contemporary society, not by emphasizing on the enlightenment through a specific practice way for all people, but by tailored practice methods based on each one’s faculties in understanding Buddhism.     

The role of secondary covariates when estimating latent trait population distributions

The U.S. National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), and the U.S. Adult Literacy Survey collect probability samples of students (or adults) who are administered brief examinations in subject areas such as mathematics and reading (cognitive variables), along with background demographic (primary) and educational environment (secondary) questions. The demographic questions are used in the primary reporting, while the numerous explanatory secondary variables, or covariates, are only directly utilized in subsequent secondary analyses. The covariates are also used indirectly to create the plausible values (multiple imputations) that are an integral part of analyses because of the use of sparse matrix sampling of cognitive items. The improvement in the precision of the primary reporting due to the inclusion of the covariates is assessed here and contrasted with the precision of reporting using plausible values created using only the primary demographic variables.The results demonstrate that the improvement in precision depends on the matrix sampling designs for the cognitive assessments. The improvements range from essentially none for the most common designs, to moderate for some less common designs. Consequently, two potential changes in the reporting procedures that could improve the statistical and operational efficiency of primary reporting are (a) eliminate or reduce the collection of covariates and increase the number of cognitive items, (b) to avoid delays, eliminate the covariates from the creation of plausible values used for the primary reports, but include them later when creating public-use files for secondary analyses. The potential improvements in statistical and operational efficiency must be weighed against the intrinsic interest in the covariates, and the potential for small discrepancies in the primary and secondary reporting.Thanks to Donald Rubin, Robert Mislevy, and John Barnard for their helpful comments and computing assistance. This work was supported by NCES Grant 84.902B980011.     

A systematic review suggests marked differences in the prevalence of infant-directed vocalization across groups of populations

Anthropological reports have long suggested that speaking to young children is very infrequent in certain populations (notably farming ones), which is in line with scattered quantitative studies. A systematic review was undertaken to use available literature in order to estimate the extent of population variation. Database searches, expert lists, and citation searches led to the discovery of 29 reports on the frequency of vocalizations directed to infants aged 24 months or younger, based on systematic observations of spontaneous activity in the infant's natural environment lasting at least 30 min in length. Together, these studies provide evidence on 1314 infants growing up in a range of communities (urban, foraging, farming). For populations located outside of North America, the frequency with which vocalization was directed to urban infants was much higher than that for rural infants (including both foraging and farming, medians = 12.6 vs. 3.6% of observations contained infant-directed vocalization behaviors). We benchmarked this effect against socio-economic status (SES) variation in the United States, which was much smaller. Infants in high SES American homes were spoken to only slightly more frequently than those in low SES homes (medians = 16.4 vs. 15.1% of observations contained infant-directed vocalization behaviors). Although published research represents a biased sample of the world's populations, these results invite further cross-population research to understand the causes and effects of such considerable population group differences.